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Displacement of Stratophere Polar Vortex


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Since 1948, there has never been 10mb Polar Vortex as displaced anomaly wise (strength-distance from northpole) as the last few weeks. This really far south, and all 206 events that have happened never centered so far south in North America. I also found a pattern in the last 4-5 years with how 10mb pattern evolved that was much different from all years before. It's hard to explain, but an example is before you would have an 85% chance of a switch after a 40-60 day event.. now it takes a break for 7-10 days, kind of comes back, wanes, etc. 

Outer part of this anomaly all the way down to Southwest, US. 

compday.dDnqoqWnpe.gif

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Most likely there is the arctic temperature gradient connection (Arctic Ice melt). Large regions of ice free water cause the PV to settle over colder interiors. This thread probably belongs here and also in the climate change forum. The connection with 2012 is interesting and uncanny (Lowest sea ice extent).

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On 1/7/2018 at 7:09 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I'm nailing this one! -NAO mid-January, must have said it 15 times. 
Models have trended nicely in this direction, with a nice 4-wave PV split. I expected more -AO/NAO trend in the next few days, in verification, this could be much greater an anomaly. 

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Oh those were such simple times. Check out this Stratosphere warming

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