Is winter (or at least December) going to be a no show?

[finnster]

In recent visits to my favorite weather sites (this one, Open Snow Colorado, Weather5280) I'm getting the idea that December (and possibly the entire winter) may be a no-show for Colorado and the western part of the U.S.  The pattern that is setting up now for at least the next couple of weeks is certainly not encouraging for any storms in this region.  This, after a record-breaking warm November is pretty discouraging for those (few) of us that actually like to see some cold and snow.

Although not directly related to Colorado weather, I do visit the Weather West site once in a while, which is California-oriented.  They just posted this write-up on the ridiculously resilient ridge (RRR) that haunted them up until last winter with heat and dryness, and now seems to be establishing itself again. 

http://weatherwest.com/

The reason I bring this up is that long-lasting ridges like this (in the wrong places) can really deter storms from getting anywhere close to us with any regularity.  Last month seems to have started a trend that I sure hope doesn't last all winter

[aggiegeog]

There are some signs that the southern extent of the ridge will relent and maybe at least the southern Rockies can start getting some snow. Sad the the Mexican and Texas mountains are about to be pounded by snow while the Rockies bake.

[finnster]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

There are some signs that the southern extent of the ridge will relent and maybe at least the southern Rockies can start getting some snow. Sad the the Mexican and Texas mountains are about to be pounded by snow while the Rockies bake.

Aggie - thanks for your response.  I'm happy to hear the Mexican and Texas mountains are about to be pounded - at least someone is getting it.

[raindancewx]

In the SW east-based El Ninos and east-based La Ninas are the most extreme patterns, when the east-based nature of the La Nina falls apart (it may already be) the pattern will start to change. Personally expect some kind of change around 12/15 to 12/20 but it could be later. In my area these super hot Novembers do not lead to warm winters particularly often. October is far more correlated to December, and October was colder than last year in the West. 

[Mercurial]

This will sound like a total weenie post, but nobody really knows what will happen 2+ weeks from now... imo.  

[mayjawintastawm]

Yes- I'm going NUTS trying to convince myself that 1) weather is not climate and 2) persistence, while the rule rather than the exception lately, is not always inevitable. The Zen of weather escapes all of us in patterns like this.

It just f@$&(ing better snow!!!!! (sound of thrashing keyboard against monitor)

[raindancewx]

I keep telling myself: it has to rain or snow eventually. It hasn't in Albuquerque since October 5th. The record without precipitation since 1891 is 109 days. Just from that alone, would expect a big change by late January - it is trying today but precip will miss us again for TX/MX/SE NM.

IF the NAO stays negative, the cold does tend to shift into the West. This is what I have in my notes for making New Mexico cold:

You can see, the NAO is usually positive for Nov to be cold...and it was warm. Also, the MJO has been fairly active lately, we're pretty cold today down here, and that works well with the composites for the MJO being in phase five.

[raindancewx]

It's funny, but despite our perception, the West (coast) has actually been the cold spot so far this December. Although, even two-three days ago the national heat was more like +4C, and now its down to +1.9C. Although +1.9C is warm, it is shrinking fast as the cold continues to push and solidify its advances with snow. 

I will say, its concerning that Albuquerque has had precipitation in every December since 1996 - that streak has to end sometime...and I did have 1996-97 as an analog.

[aggiegeog]

Winter looks to come with a vengeance prior to Christmas. Very cold temps throughout the West and Plains along with precip finally for the SW. It seems like mother nature was just building up as fall and early Dec, but the dam is about to break.

[raindancewx]

This is roughly the type of pattern change the analogs had for late December even though the map below is broadly speaking... nonsense. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. There is a small cold/wet window in this pattern for even the Southwest I think. 

My idea for the winter was this essentially - so the map above is pattern c. We've been in an amplified version of B this month so far.

 

[Met1985]

On 12/14/2017 at 8:21 PM, raindancewx said:

This is roughly the type of pattern change the analogs had for late December even though the map below is broadly speaking... nonsense. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. There is a small cold/wet window in this pattern for even the Southwest I think. 

My idea for the winter was this essentially - so the map above is pattern c. We've been in an amplified version of B this month so far.

 

Your map for the SE is failing miserably so far but I suspect you being in the West you could care less. Yeah it looks like the West is getting hammered with snowfall. 

[raindancewx]

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Your map for the SE is failing miserably so far but I suspect you being in the West you could care less. Yeah it looks like the West is getting hammered with snowfall. 

Well, to be fair, I just threw that map together as a guiding idea. The actual analogs look OK for the SE in the December. The big miss for me this month is the Plains, I had it cold. Some of the analogs (1943) were warm in the plains in December but I didn't weight them correctly.

The idea I had is basically fine for the coasts, and pretty bad the middle third of the US, which is unusual. We'll see how it plays out by the end of the month.

I will say, my seasonal (three-month) stuff historically is much stronger than the monthly stuff, and my analogs did have a very warm Plains in January, so I may have just gotten the order wrong.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Well, to be fair, I just threw that map together as a guiding idea. The actual analogs look OK for the SE in the December. The big miss for me this month is the Plains, I had it cold. Some of the analogs (1943) were warm in the plains in December but I didn't weight them correctly.

The idea I had is basically fine for the coasts, and pretty bad the middle third of the US, which is unusual. We'll see how it plays out by the end of the month.

I will say, my seasonal (three-month) stuff historically is much stronger than the monthly stuff, and my analogs did have a very warm Plains in January, so I may have just gotten the order wrong.

Lol no problem