Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[csnavywx]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

 

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, csnavywx said:

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

Wow, they need to expand that y-axis. We're not seeing the full ensemble mean spread for late summer because it's cutoff by the current y-axis. Some of those individual model runs must be at or near BOE criteria as well.

[bluewave]

Lowest December extent on record just below 2016.

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic

Arctic sea ice extent for December averaged 11.42 million square kilometers (4.41 million square miles), the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month (Figure 1a). This comes on the heels of the third lowest extent for the month in November 2024 (Figure 1b). The December extent was 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2016, and 1.42 million square kilometers (548,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average.

Including 2024, the downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for December is 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) per year, or 3.4 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, December has lost 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) of sea ice, which is equivalent to three times the size of Texas.