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For the Tuesday update I would lift the slight into West Kentucky and get the ENH into northern Mississippi - perhaps Memphis.

 

Warm front WF will probably get into West Tenn. Might make it to West Ky. Severe parameters including a screaming low level jet will augment the squall line from the WF south. Upper winds may be less backed than forecast if a lead wave can eject ahead of the bowling ball. A couple leading edge tornadoes would not surprise me. Unfortunately it may be after dark east of the Mississippi River. I'm expecting several to numerous damaging straight line reports, esp if some line echo wave patterns LEWPs can establish. Looks like a set-up favorable to LEWPs esp after dark.

 

Good news farther east is relatively more stable air should keep Alabama, Mid and East Tennessee safe.

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SPC finally got MEM deep into Slight and the ENH is knocking on the door. Hi-res NAM and HRRR both show LEWPs smacking Memphis proper and Mississippi. One could infer 2-3 of the patterns along the line of severe storms and straight line winds. Temps and dews are above levels in Kansas last night. Kansas got hammered with long-track tornadoes. I don't see long-track in the Mid South, thanks to ongoing precip and hopefully no classic sups, but the parameters are there for EF2+ even embedded in the line. Reminds me of STL airport EF2 in the line...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   310 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
     EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
     900 PM CST.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
   WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   THIS EVENING.  WHILE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

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Tornado warned LEWP southwest of Memphis marks where the secondary or gulf warm front intersects the line. That intersection might make it far enough north to get into MEM if the WF keeps surging. I doubt a tornado holds together. Should be fun times though, at least straight line winds along the path of the LEWP.

 

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