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Weather.St

Winter 2015-2016 Discussions

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I have written a piece on what I currently see occurring with the weather patterns and how they will transition into winter. The forecast needs some slight tweaks here and there, but overall I tried to keep it as simple as I could so that people could understand it.

 

http://weather.st/blog/winter-of-2015-2016-whats-the-verdict/

 

Now I realize there are quite a few people out there who will scream and throw eggs in my general direction for even putting this up, but be rest assured it is not a panic cry, or a hype job. And for those who are going to ask, "Where did you get this data from?"  I took the time to mention in the article where the sources were coming from, and that analogs plus climatology had quite a bit to do with formation of the projection, not to mention trends over the past few years in storm tracks.

 

Thanks! Please post your own forecasts as well here, I would love to see them!

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figure6.gifIn addition to this information, the ENSO forecast is that of a weakening El Nino, hence, the forecast basis is different than the Climatology of your typical El Nino winter.

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figure6.gifIn addition to this information, the ENSO forecast is that of a weakening El Nino, hence, the forecast basis is different than the Climatology of your typical El Nino winter.

Err.. I'd have to strongly disagree here. Most Ninos peak in the Nov-Dec time frame and that's exactly what almost all of them are showing.

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WSI has stated today on twitter that ENSO forcing has likely peaked. I have no opinion on this either way but felt it belonged in here. Could have implications on winter.

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