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About Weather.St

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    Meteorology Student
  • Birthday 11/18/1981

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  1. A very good point. I would tend to agree here. Viable changes would include the factors that cause the most damage/loss of life, like flooding and surge.
  2. I recently wrote an article on the implications of a category 6 rank being added to the hurican scale. I wanted to get more input, however. Please vote on my poll and leave any comments here or on the website.
  3. I started a public weather photo upload website at It allows anyone to upload their weather photos without registering. Photos are still owned by those who have taken them.
  4. In addition to this information, the ENSO forecast is that of a weakening El Nino, hence, the forecast basis is different than the Climatology of your typical El Nino winter.
  5. I have written a piece on what I currently see occurring with the weather patterns and how they will transition into winter. The forecast needs some slight tweaks here and there, but overall I tried to keep it as simple as I could so that people could understand it. Now I realize there are quite a few people out there who will scream and throw eggs in my general direction for even putting this up, but be rest assured it is not a panic cry, or a hype job. And for those who are going to ask, "Where did you get this data from?" I took the time to mention in the article where the sources were coming from, and that analogs plus climatology had quite a bit to do with formation of the projection, not to mention trends over the past few years in storm tracks. Thanks! Please post your own forecasts as well here, I would love to see them!
  6. I am seeing the effects of the shear already to the north and east of the storm, pushing the feeder bands farther north and shrinking the moisture on the western side.
  7. Technically we might be talking about two different things right now. Either eye-wall filling or eyewall replacement. Either way a slight dip in strength could be the result followed by some RI. Given the position on the shear located to the north and west of the storm, it if very likely the eyewall filling in could most likely be a result of shear and not replacement, giving way to the idea of weakening. If so, that's jut physics for you. There is no real argument here in favor of one or the other until time has passed.
  8. Definitely better structure, but still a small hurricane in terms of overall size. Makes it easier for the storm to attain Cat 3 if bursts of convection continue. Still thinking shear down the road will hamper a bit, depending on direction of storm overall during the next 12-24 hours.
  9. I was shocked when I heard this proposal. However, most of you are correct on how bad the forecasting would get if you centralized all the offices into 6 locations. It would be absurd for anyone with half a degree in meteorology to think that 6 locations could forecast for all regions around those locations. This became apparent during the super lake effect snow even where over 70 inches fell into the Buffalo area. These kind of mesoscale weather patterns cannot be derived from a location outside of the event. Therefore, having regional offices like we currently have seems to be a bit more reliable. In fact, I could make the argument that we need a couple more offices in certain areas.
  10. I created a 30 minute audio program on Climate change and seeing it from both sides. posted it on my website a few weeks back. You can check it out here. I am not saying I know the whole truth, but I did want to look at it from both perspectives.
  11. I agree with this. It is just a matter of time before the pattern changes. The models have been showing the signs for the past week that things are about to get a bit interesting, and I certainly see the cold air coming back into the CONUS. So I would tend to agree with Tropo, even if it's just a hunch.
  12. I have always been a fan of foliage up to a certain point... and that point is when they fall off the tree into my yard.
  13. Was driving home this morning to a temperature of 36 degrees in Plainfield, CT. Actually had to wear my coat, which is rare in September. Now looking at the pattern, it looks like some more coat wearing weather coming up after Monday.
  14. I am always strangely appalled that after some of the most costly events have happened in the past 10 years, that not s ingle agency or government department wants to educate us or our children in emergency preparedness. Not only that, but they seem more gratified to make money of the large scale disasters that have struck us, and have done very little to enhance ways to see these types of events coming at a longer range, with less confusions. I agree, the GFS needs some major upgrades to compete on the same level at the ECMWF, However we seem to be more likely to sell someone property insurance than to upgrade something that could, in essence, help minimize these risks before hand. Lets face it, you cant just pick up a whole house and move it, but you can do things to make it more suitable for stronger weather events. Let's take all the money we save on those government FEMA handouts, and toss it into the computing power and upgrading of the GFS. It won't save everything, nor will it stop what is coming, but I would like to know my country is capable of relying on its own forecasting model, rather than outsourcing.