Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,133
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

SST CA updated, New images are posted.

 

I compared last month's run to this month's run to see if there were a lot of changes.

 

Compared to last month this map is pretty similar. The Aleutian low area moved a tiny bit back to the west, the above normal heights are a bit stronger over Canada, and the trough in the SE is a bit stronger and extends farther west.

 

cahgt_anom.3.gif

 

 

 

 

Temps are a bit colder in the south and southeast and a bit warmer in Canada. The colder temps in the south extended farther northward than last month.

 

cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

 

Perhaps a bit more precip across the south but overall much like last month. 

 

caprec_anom.3.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro weeklies are starting to pick up what may be the start of the Gulf Of Alaska/Aleutian storminess as we head into October. I believe the Euro seasonal is supposed to come out tomorrow, and the JMA monthly/seasonal should be out around mid-month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NMME model(s) updated today as well. A little more 'meh' than last month which had a bit better look. Some of the extremely dry models are probably skewing things.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml

Yeah, don't really like that model too much. Euro looks good. I don't really know how it torches all the way across Canada exactly but pattern wise it doesn't really get much better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB had an excellent video today where he went over what the Euro Seasonal shows. Based on what he said and colored in, it looks a lot like the SST Constructed analog but maybe just a bit farther west with everything, which means we may be in a great spot come winter.

 

Also I've been looking at all the El-Nino's and the precip anomalies, it looks like strong El-Nino's were the wettest, followed by moderate and strangely enough, around our area, the weak El-Nino's were the driest. Of course this is just precip anomalies, and not based on snow/ice. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB had an excellent video today where he went over what the Euro Seasonal shows. Based on what he said and colored in, it looks a lot like the SST Constructed analog but maybe just a bit farther west with everything, which means we may be in a great spot come winter.

Also I've been looking at all the El-Nino's and the precip anomalies, it looks like strong El-Nino's were the wettest, followed by moderate and strangely enough, around our area, the weak El-Nino's were the driest. Of course this is just precip anomalies, and not based on snow/ice.

Just saw it (video) and came here to talk about the same stuff. You beat me to it. As he hinted is possible in the video, I'd really like that ridging to stay in western Canada if at all possible but maybe in next month's run it will be where I want it. It will be amazing if we end up with a Gulf-fed snow bomb sometime this winter. That's the first thing I thought of when I saw the map. We can have dry and lots of snow also but we have to be a good bit below normal in the Temps category (I think) for it to work out that way. I know several of the driest here have been some of the snowiest of all time. All in all, good stuff. I am keeping my optimism tempered though for now. One more month and I will probably let myself start getting really excited.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man I hope all these models are right this year. That 850s wind map right there says snowstorms all over it. Kinda confirms my post from yesterday. There's potential left there for some arctic intrusions as well so it should be a lot of fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finally found a place I could plot the accumulated snowfall for the winters in the past. I used Nov 1st to April 1st as the time period because sometimes we get snow in Nov and big snows in March.

 

Looking at some of the analog years mentioned for our immediate area..... (El Nino strength)

 

1957-1958 (Strong): Above normal snowfall for much of the area from west of Springfield, MO to Fayetteville. Central AR to the Arklatex was below normal though. The real 'winner' was much of Kansas.

 

1972-1973 (Strong): Around normal snowfall in our area with above normal the farther west you go. Very much above normal snowfall in central KS/OK. 

 

1997-1998 (Super Strong): Much below normal snowfall. Have to be back to central KS and the OK Panhandle before you get into normal snowfall.

 

2002-2003: (Moderate): Above/Much above normal snowfall.

 

 

Other Strong El-Nino's not mentioned as analog years:

 

1965-1966 (Strong): Somewhat mixed for our area. Areas farther south were above to much above normal, while SW MO/SE KS/NE OK were below/very below normal. Around normal in NW AR, but much more just south of there.

 

1982-1983 (Super Strong?): Below to much below normal. Like 1997-1998, you have to go back to central KS down to the OK Panhandle to get normal to above normal snowfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you for the great research. It hasn't been mentioned anywhere that I know of but the few ENSO graphs I've seen tend to show the current El nino trending along the lines of 2009-10 as far as timing of peak and decline and location of forcing. I'm not at all saying that we will have a winter like that but if the trend continues for another month or so, you would have to at least consider the possibilities and similarities there. My thoughts. Anyone is free to critique them. :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you for the great research. It hasn't been mentioned anywhere that I know of but the few ENSO graphs I've seen tend to show the current El nino trending along the lines of 2009-10 as far as timing of peak and decline and location of forcing. I'm not at all saying that we will have a winter like that but if the trend continues for another month or so, you would have to at least consider the possibilities and similarities there. My thoughts. Anyone is free to critique them. :-)

 

Hmm, I thought I added 2009-2010, guess I must have forgot. 

 

2009-2010 (Moderate): Above to Much above for the entire area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Each pullback or change right now in almost all SST categories only continues to increase favor for our area in both the cold and precip categories. Joe D of weatherbell illustrated it pretty well in his El Nino update this morning. It's definitely worth a look. It was a pretty timely update based on what I'd said on here yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Medium-Long range is starting to show the first really large trough taking up residence in the GOA. The Euro eventually beaches it in SW Canada and the Pac NW, but it's been doing so slower than previous runs. That's going to knock out a lot of the above normal anomalies with the N PAC warm pool. The Weeklies from last Thurs still have a very good sign of what looks to possibly be the Aleutian low developing as we head into the first week of Oct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Medium-Long range is starting to show the first really large trough taking up residence in the GOA. The Euro eventually beaches it in SW Canada and the Pac NW, but it's been doing so slower than previous runs. That's going to knock out a lot of the above normal anomalies with the N PAC warm pool. The Weeklies from last Thurs still have a very good sign of what looks to possibly be the Aleutian low developing as we head into the first week of Oct.

Hoping the trough in the GOA is transient as it was last year. One good thing about it happening this early is that hopefully it can pull back by the time the cool season starts and get the Aleutian low going nice and strong. I don't think it can cool the NPAC all the way down but I agree that it will knock the Temps back down a bit. If the pattern can get set up quickly enough, maybe we don't waste December as many have said. I'm just being a glass half full kind of guy right now. I can't wait to see October's set of models given the progression of them over the last 2-3 months. I literally like almost everything I see so far and that's pretty scary. Lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as I can tell, this winter is truly a toss up and can go in any direction. A strong Nino is not really a good thing, the persistant ridging in the ne Pacific is a good thing, but the Nino will try it's damndest to get rid of it. An early maturing nino and it breaking down during the Nino is a big plus, if it happens. I think December will be a pretty crappy month..ie...mild and more mild. Colder and snowier as we work our way through the winter..but anything is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as I can tell, this winter is truly a toss up and can go in any direction. A strong Nino is not really a good thing, the persistant ridging in the ne Pacific is a good thing, but the Nino will try it's damndest to get rid of it. An early maturing nino and it breaking down during the Nino is a big plus, if it happens. I think December will be a pretty crappy month..ie...mild and more mild. Colder and snowier as we work our way through the winter..but anything is possible.

I agree on the possibilities you mentioned. It could be a coin flip type of thing. I don't really know yet and definitely won't say that I do. Just throwing thoughts against the wall for discussion. I like hearing all the other ideas and thoughts too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping the trough in the GOA is transient as it was last year. One good thing about it happening this early is that hopefully it can pull back by the time the cool season starts and get the Aleutian low going nice and strong. I don't think it can cool the NPAC all the way down but I agree that it will knock the Temps back down a bit. If the pattern can get set up quickly enough, maybe we don't waste December as many have said. I'm just being a glass half full kind of guy right now. I can't wait to see October's set of models given the progression of them over the last 2-3 months. I literally like almost everything I see so far and that's pretty scary. Lol.

 

We still have to get the JAMSTEC which should probably be out this week. 

 

The storminess is going to increase in the GOA, and the first round will probably be directly over the area and into the west coast of Canada. We'll have to see if subsequent rounds set up farther west out towards the Aleutian low position as we head into October.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...