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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion

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Just wanted to pop in and say hello to all u guys/gals. Hope everyone is enjoying their spring/summer. Haven't posted much I have been going through a lot of bad medical issues. Hope to see you all in the fall/winter :)

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Hope all gets better, NwWhiteOut. Gotta love the CFS showing below normal temps over the north Central US and above normal precip for us in DJF 16'-17'.

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Just wanted to pop in and say hello to all u guys/gals. Hope everyone is enjoying their spring/summer. Haven't posted much I have been going through a lot of bad medical issues. Hope to see you all in the fall/winter :)

Hope you are doing better WhiteOut!  Good to hear from you, get ready for a long and hot summer!

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Thanks guys appreciate the kind words! I agree I think this summer is going to be brutal, it's reminding me of 06/07 all over again so far...those 2 winters were awesome when I lived in missouri though, hope this upcoming winter won't be a dud like last season lol.

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[quote name="NwWhiteOut" post="4152051"

"Hope this upcoming winter won't be a dud like last season lol."

In the spirit of keeping a positive attitude, couldn't be much worse than last winter. Literally. :-) lol

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In the spirit of keeping a positive attitude, couldn't be much worse than last winter. Literally. :-) lol

So true man, that was the worst and most pathetic winter I ever witnessed hands down lol.

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I just wanted to stop by and wish my friends here a happy 4th tomorrow and hopefully a dry one. I'm currently on Dauphin Island, Alabama but fixing to start my 11 hour drive home. Pretty sure I'm going to run into some rain on the way.

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Mid-Summer check in.

Looks like we're headed for a weak La Nina winter as of right now. 

JAMSTEC is cold for Dec-Feb

Latest CFSv2 is cold from Dec through April. 

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8 hours ago, JoMo said:

Mid-Summer check in.

Looks like we're headed for a weak La Nina winter as of right now. 

JAMSTEC is cold for Dec-Feb

Latest CFSv2 is cold from Dec through April. 

Looking good so far.  I've read articles/blogs from a couple of other mets who think the weak nina could provide for some interesting winter in these parts as well.  I know I'm ready for the change, hating this summer heat!

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I noticed that Doug Head (heady pattern) is calling for below average temps and above average precipitation. 

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On 8/19/2016 at 11:52 AM, MoWeatherguy said:

JoMo - Any new updates on JAMSTEC and CFS2 for the winter months?

The Aug JAMSTEC went warm. Seems a bit off. CFS v2 fluctuates a lot. 

The interesting thing appears to be that the models are showing just a weak Nina or possibly even just a cool neutral. We do pretty well in this area during neutral years.

figure4.gif

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Weak La-Nina or neutral conditions still look probable this winter according to the latest models. 

Neutral or weak Nina's after a strong El Nino happened in 1983-1984, 1966-67. 1983-1984 was cold and snowy in Joplin. 1966-1967 looks like it had a couple big storms towards the end of Dec, but temps were up and down the rest of the winter. 

The ocean SST's look somewhat like 2013 at this point. That ended up being a good winter for our area. But it's still early, and we'll have to see what happens between now and Oct/Nov when the GOA will become more active with storms. 

 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

Weak La-Nina or neutral conditions still look probable this winter according to the latest models. 

Neutral or weak Nina's after a strong El Nino happened in 1983-1984, 1966-67. 1983-1984 was cold and snowy in Joplin. 1966-1967 looks like it had a couple big storms towards the end of Dec, but temps were up and down the rest of the winter. 

The ocean SST's look somewhat like 2013 at this point. That ended up being a good winter for our area. But it's still early, and we'll have to see what happens between now and Oct/Nov when the GOA will become more active with storms. 

 

I don't know if my image uploaded but if you combine those 2 seasons with 1978-79, (enso went neutral in late autumn with warm N PAC) 59-60 (cool neutral) 2013-14 and 2014-15 (N PAC matches) you have a lot of pretty cold options on the table for us in the center of the nation. I like it. December 83 and January 84 had some pretty historic cold in them. I was born in October of 84 most likely due to the cold outbreak in January that year. Lol.

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