Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[SnowtoRain]

Guessing maybe another hour of pure snow in Easton.

[SnowtoRain]

Wind is really picking  up.

[csnavywx]

The models that seem to verify best right now are the AI-GFS and EC-AIFS models (with the HRDPS coming the closest among the traditionals -- it slowed down the coastal front more than the others). EC-AIFS has you getting above freezing, but only briefly this afternoon and interestingly, neither of us get above freezing on the AI-GFS now.

The slow-moving coastal front scenario and temps staying down more than forecast was a big worry for us at the office. Warm noses and CAD are something NWP in general can have a tough time with. We purposefully hedged lower on temps. Maybe not enough. We'll see.

[SnowtoRain]

15.3, 4.5", I'm calling it, snow time of death 800 am. Sleet now

[csnavywx]

Ehhhhhhhh....Highest

[SnowtoRain]

36 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ehhhhhhhh....Highest

Yeah 16.5 in Easton at 9 am...we shall see if that keeps adjusting, never underestimate flow off the ocean. In a bit of a lull, wonder if it is associated with the coastal ramping up? I am hoping to get some better bands to push through and get heavy sleet.

[Lowershoresadness]

back to snow

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said:

back to snow

Wild. How much are you up to?

[SnowtoRain]

1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said:

back to snow

Crazy, must be rate dependent still.

[Lowershoresadness]

I'll measure in a bit.  yes rate dependent.  now in a lull again back to sleet. there is a crazy freezing fog in spots too   

[AlexD1990]

Mainly snow still in Lewes, but it sounds grainy as it hits the house. At least 3-4" eyeballed. Nice storm so far, and love that it's colder than forecast 

[SnowtoRain]

@CAPEI think if we could get more intense rates it would still be mostly snow. Kinda a sleety snow look right now.

[SnowtoRain]

18.3, HRRR has me at 23 at 10 am

[Prestige Worldwide]

25 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Mainly snow still in Lewes, but it sounds grainy as it hits the house. At least 3-4" eyeballed. Nice storm so far, and love that it's colder than forecast 

Yeah I think around 4” at my house.  I’m very pleased w this one 

[Lowershoresadness]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Ehhhhhhhh....Highest

damn that warmth will not be denied. jumped 5 degrees in a half hour.   how icy will the am be tomorrow?

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

@CAPEI think if we could get more intense rates it would still be mostly snow. Kinda a sleety snow look right now.

Yeah been in a hole here.

[SnowtoRain]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah been in a hole here.

I think the snow window is now passed, see how fast the warm air pushes in. Salisbury at 33 now

[csnavywx]

20 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

damn that warmth will not be denied. jumped 5 degrees in a half hour.   how icy will the am be tomorrow?

That's an impressive coastal front. I wasn't thinking you'd get much in the way of ice out there. But there's a chance that front gets pushed back through later this evening before the last line of precipitation is through and it might give you a glaze. Up in the air at this point since we're so far away from almost any guidance at this point.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I think the snow window is now passed, see how fast the warm air pushes in. Salisbury at 33 now

Looks like we get to 32-33 on the Meso models for a few hours late afternoon/evening.