Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Just read Mount Hollys forecast discussion, they are banking on high ratios to get to the 12 to 18" they show on their current snow map. A lot of caveats in the discussion for our region regarding lower potential totals due to rain and mixing, so their current map is basically best case scenario.

I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder.

[SnowtoRain]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder.

Agreed.

The 0z fv3 hi-res looks intriguing, for what that is worth at this range or any range

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

Agreed.

The 0z fv3 hi-res looks intriguing, for what that is worth at this range or any range

Yeah I just posted a map in the main thread. Not really in range but it does look good.

[SnowtoRain]

6z Euro slightly less aggressive with the ground level warm air push across Delmarva, basically east of the portion of rt 50 that runs north to south is where it gets above freezing. 

[SnowtoRain]

NAM also holds ground temps colder for longer but less snow.

[SnowtoRain]

Looks like GFS and Euro are slowly starting to meet in the middle. Suspect the rain/ice line will setup somewhere just west of Easton in the end. Obviously, much of precip type/amount and how quick things change over is more of day of thing in a situation like this.

GFS likes to give us a nice thump of snow still.

[AlexD1990]

I stg next weeks storm better not be too warm 

[SnowtoRain]

Forcast has not changed. Biggest factors are thump and ground temps, both things models will keep waffling on.

[AlexD1990]

WBOC said the rain is gonna wash away my snow. Blech. If we went through a week of tracking and I don't even get a snowpack out of it...

[SnowtoRain]

Looks like we will all see rain at some point with this storm. Soil temps should be at or below freezing so I am not sure if that provides some buffer to the snow when there is rain. 

[SnowtoRain]

@CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain?

[Prestige Worldwide]

49 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

@CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain?

You have the perfect screen name for this- unfortunately 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

@CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain?

The snow part depends on how hot and heavy it is at the beginning. We need it to come in and go moderate to heavy pretty quickly, and for the snow to last several hours. That's our chance to pick up 5 or 6" before the sleet takes over. As for freezing rain, it looks like there is a decent chance for you and I to pick up a quarter inch of ice, then maybe ending as plain rain with a temp of 33-34. Closer to the coast there will be a a longer duration of rain, and little to no zr.

[AlexD1990]

Ugh, much as I hate it, I'd rather have the plain rain instead of zr. No power outages, thanks.