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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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GFS came onboard with a more southern track for the clipper. Euro has been steady with the southern track. Instead of worrying about mixing issues... we may be looking at a whiff to the south. We'll see what todays model runs show now that the shortwave should be fully sampled.

 

I'll be in Chicago so at least I won't miss the storm. 

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Clippers don't tend to trend back north last minute, so I'm not too optimistic for you guys. Of course here it still looks like a rain to light snow shower scenario. The 12z Euro still suggests 2-3" up to Cleveland and 4" for Akron so you'll probably still get snow...but 3-6" amounts will probably set up from like Mansfield to Dover.

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Clippers don't tend to trend back north last minute, so I'm not too optimistic for you guys. Of course here it still looks like a rain to light snow shower scenario. The 12z Euro still suggests 2-3" up to Cleveland and 4" for Akron so you'll probably still get snow...but 3-6" amounts will probably set up from like Mansfield to Dover.

Yep, looking good from mfd down to c'bus. The axis is too much NW to SE... A little flatter solution and this area would do better.

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And the GFS paints a very interesting scenario over the next few days as the storm up the east coast develops. Shows 6-10" for much of northeast Ohio over 48 hours. It seems the storm throws quite a bit of moisture back over Ohio and combined with lake enhancement puts down some appreciable accumulations for interior locations closer to the PA border. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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I was surprised that the official forecast is only for an inch tonight. NAM, GFS, and Euro all suggest around 3" with much more to the south. With a tendency for these storms to bust low, can't blame a more conservative snowfall total forecast.

There will certainly be a tight gradient with this storm. Hopefully we get a little bit of a NW bump overnight.

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I was surprised that the official forecast is only for an inch tonight. NAM, GFS, and Euro all suggest around 3" with much more to the south. With a tendency for these storms to bust low, can't blame a more conservative snowfall total forecast.

There will certainly be a tight gradient with this storm. Hopefully we get a little bit of a NW bump overnight.

Ya I am still hoping for some good wrap around tomorrow, but won't count on it. Looks like lake county is the cutoff point right now.

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Nickels and dimes for sure. Model QPF for this event was extremely overdone and kudos to CLE for taking output and cutting it down.

Had about 1.5" of snow, which is sad considering it snowed for about 19 hours straight with visibilities less than 2 miles for most of the time with temperatures hovering around 20. It's always difficult to get long duration synoptic snows here, but when we do just can't get the moisture to work out. Many models were showing a stripe of 0.75" liquid equivalent in the US30 corridor, doesn't look like half that fell.

CLE still sitting at average for the season in terms of snow but should start running a deficit soon.

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Thanks for the snow update. I'm going with your snow totals since I'm out of town. So, you had 1.5" yesterday (evening), and another 2" last night?

Ok sounds good! Ya, the 1.5 would have been from Saturday night through sun evening since I wasn't here. 2" from yesterday evening through this morning.

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CLE has a partial PNS out for cocorahs 24 hr reports. So for just the clipper part that started yesterday afternoon you've got about 1-2" for the shoreline, 2-4" from about 480 south to Akron, and then a few 5-6" reports in the far south CLE CWA.

It was very windy and snow was sugar so I'd expect to see some varied snowfall totals. Quite a bit of drifting going on.

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Picked up a half inch of lake effect fluff overnight. As is often the case with east coast bombs, they tend to provide great lake effect set ups for Cleveland. Such a shame that Lake Erie is mostly frozen over, could have been a great event.

I noticed that CLE only reported 0.1" of snow yesterday, that would be nearly impossible. The problem wih ASOS in light snow is that the heated snow melters will almost always evaporate the liquid equivalent of these events. I think they just saw the 0.01" that registered as liquid equivalent one hour and marked down a tenth of an inch of snow without much thought.

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I will be in NE Ohio this weekend and am liking the look on the models for Sunday. A little energy ejecting out of the southwest and partially phasing with a trough diving in. Enough to get a half decent storm, but a full on phase and Detroit cutter will be avoided unless the northern stream energy trends a lot slower. I have to drive back to OU at some point Sunday afternoon or evening, could be a sporty drive if the models right now have half a clue.

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I will be in NE Ohio this weekend and am liking the look on the models for Sunday. A little energy ejecting out of the southwest and partially phasing with a trough diving in. Enough to get a half decent storm, but a full on phase and Detroit cutter will be avoided unless the northern stream energy trends a lot slower. I have to drive back to OU at some point Sunday afternoon or evening, could be a sporty drive if the models right now have half a clue.

Hopefully you being in town will be good luck for us!

I saw on one of the snowfall reports that the airport only had a 1" depth. Everywhere else was much higher. Definitely a fishy report.

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Hopefully you being in town will be good luck for us!

I saw on one of the snowfall reports that the airport only had a 1" depth. Everywhere else was much higher. Definitely a fishy report.

I haven't bought the airport's snow totals the last few days as they haven't looked right at all. The normal observer must be out of town. I'm a few miles north and have 4" on the ground.

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-12 this morning when I woke up. Might have even been colder earlier on.

Curious how warm we get tomorrow. Either way cle mentions all snow tomorrow night and maybe a few inches.

Weekend storm still looking really good.

Edit; should add that -12 was from wunderground. Might not have been that accurate.

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I could see a pretty decent burst tomorrow late afternoon and evening of synoptic snow as the cold air starts pouring in, with some LES continuing afterwards. With an open lake I think this setup could produce advisory or warning criteria snows because there's pretty good synoptic moisture and respectably high inversions through most of tomorrow night, but with so much ice expectations need to be tempered. For now I think 2-4" in the Snowbelt and 1-2" elsewhere is reasonable for tomorrow night.

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Hopefully you being in town will be good luck for us!

I saw on one of the snowfall reports that the airport only had a 1" depth. Everywhere else was much higher Definitely a fishy report.

That's funny... when I left cle on sunday morning there was more than inch. I guess the new snow kept the depth the same.

Nothing but patchy snow in chicago. Looking forward to getting home.

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Had a nice view of the lake flying in yesterday. Not much open water at all outside of the northern shore. There were a few large cracks but nothing substantial. What appears as open water on the visible satellite is just ice with very little snow on it so it has a dark appearance.

 

CLE's seems pretty optimistic about the snow tonight. 3-5" seems way too high IMO but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

Edit: Kitchen sink coming down in Chagrin. Rain mixed with huge flakes and sleet.

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Thanks for the ice report. Been too many clouds lately to get a good satellite shot. If the lake were unfrozen this would be a good 4-8" event with a couple of troughs moving through tonight. As is I'd generally expect about 1-3", maybe a local 4" amount in northern Geauga. Good moisture and decent inversions with a NW wind and high snow ratios will probably be enough to allow for light accumulations tonight. Even though there isn't much open water, any moisture picked up plus the synoptic moisture and perhaps some upstream lake moisture should combine with frictional convergence as the wind hits the land and higher terrain and ring out light snow.

 

Sunday still looks interesting.

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