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Trent

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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36 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Now that is just over a week since the cold set in here are the updated lake temps. Ice has formed near the shoreline around the western basin.

eswt-00.gif

We've gotten zero good events locally to show for it too, which is the worst.  Still some juice though and the lake temps should level off over the next week. 

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5 hours ago, NEOH said:

The snow should be gone in another day or two. Awful timing. Hopefully we'll see some positive trends in the models soon.

One thing looks likely is that it will get really cold around Christmas.   Hopefully that leads to some le before freezing more of the lake.  

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14 hours ago, dta1984 said:

One thing looks likely is that it will get really cold around Christmas.   Hopefully that leads to some le before freezing more of the lake.  

Nothing but patches and piles left this morning. I wouldn't rule out a synoptic system on Christmas day. LES seems destined for WNY again... but a long way out at this point so lots can change. 

Trent hasn't posted in a long time. Wonder if he moved away from the area.

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Interesting model trends for the Christmas eve storm. 12z NAM has a 999 low on the MD, PA, WV border... typically a good position for Northern OH. Just need the cold air to come in a little sooner. Yeah, its the NAM and just one model scenario...  but we'll see what the others show later on.

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Interesting model trends for the Christmas eve storm. 12z NAM has a 999 low on the MD, PA, WV border... typically a good position for Northern OH. Just need the cold air to come in a little sooner. Yeah, its the NAM and just one model scenario...  but we'll see what the others show later on.

Could be an interesting Christmas eve/day. 12z guidance looking good for a white christmas.

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1 minute ago, NEOH said:

Could be an interesting Christmas eve/day. 12z guidance looking good for a white christmas.

Noticed that as well.  I'll be in Southern Ohio for Christmas,  but it may work out there too.  

You're right about Trent....Haven't seen him post in a while.   Maybe a big storm will being him back.  

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White Christmas looking pretty close to a lock in northern OH with two shots of potential synoptic snow this weekend. Not thrilled about the Saturday potential but think we could see a few inches Sunday evening. 

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Not overly optimistic about snowfall. Just about all of the guidance has the heaviest snow north over the lake. And, the lake effect behind the system looks to set up well northeast given the wind direction. We just can't get a decent wnw wind direction. Hope I'm wrong but 2-3" is my call at least locally.

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4 hours ago, NEOH said:

Not overly optimistic about snowfall. Just about all of the guidance has the heaviest snow north over the lake. And, the lake effect behind the system looks to set up well northeast given the wind direction. We just can't get a decent wnw wind direction. Hope I'm wrong but 2-3" is my call at least locally.

Yeah unless something changes this is really going to underperform.  Got about .8" here before the dry slot took over and the snow wrapping back in doesn't look real impressive.  I'll probably be lucky to reach 2".

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Almost at an inch at my house in the west side of Cleveland. Very Christmas-y looking out. Ham is almost done and its snowing. Wish it was more but I'll take what I can get. Merry Christmas everyone!

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Aside from the clipper a week and a half ago, not much has gone great for us this winter (though many sites will finish December near or a bit above average snow for the month, so it's added up some).  Was pretty disappointing to watch the models steadily trend farther NW with this system the last few days. 

The LES will be interesting.  Should initially affect perhaps northern Erie County Monday afternoon/evening before winds come around a bit Monday night and Tuesday, pushing it into extreme NE Ohio.  Winds come around to NW over water Tuesday night into Wednesday which should push the convergence south into much more of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties into Wednesday night before inversions finally lower enough to kill the LES.

I'm not sure bands will be persistent enough in any one area to get totals near what CLE has.  Instability will be moderate to extreme through Wednesday evening.  Moisture depth and equilibrium heights are OK but not great, however, winds will be fairly weak maximizing residence time over the lake, convergence will be strong near the shore, and BUFKIT shows the best moisture and lift centered in the snow growth zone for much of the event.  This combination of parameters will support warning criteria where this band affects over the next few days.  Think Erie County will see some 12"+ jackpots where the band persists the most, we'll see if it moves too much for more.  Also think there's a good shot that Lake County, northern Geauga County, and parts of Ashtabula County see warning amounts Monday night through Tuesday evening.  For Cuyahoga County (and possibly extreme NE Lorain County) and central/southern Geauga County, parameters support a decent band through Wednesday evening...still some time to figure if the and gets that far south, but if it does (which most indications currently suggest) parts of Cuyahoga County may see warning criteria amounts as well...eventually. 

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3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Aside from the clipper a week and a half ago, not much has gone great for us this winter (though many sites will finish December near or a bit above average snow for the month, so it's added up some).  Was pretty disappointing to watch the models steadily trend farther NW with this system the last few days. 

The LES will be interesting.  Should initially affect perhaps northern Erie County Monday afternoon/evening before winds come around a bit Monday night and Tuesday, pushing it into extreme NE Ohio.  Winds come around to NW over water Tuesday night into Wednesday which should push the convergence south into much more of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties into Wednesday night before inversions finally lower enough to kill the LES.

I'm not sure bands will be persistent enough in any one area to get totals near what CLE has.  Instability will be moderate to extreme through Wednesday evening.  Moisture depth and equilibrium heights are OK but not great, however, winds will be fairly weak maximizing residence time over the lake, convergence will be strong near the shore, and BUFKIT shows the best moisture and lift centered in the snow growth zone for much of the event.  This combination of parameters will support warning criteria where this band affects over the next few days.  Think Erie County will see some 12"+ jackpots where the band persists the most, we'll see if it moves too much for more.  Also think there's a good shot that Lake County, northern Geauga County, and parts of Ashtabula County see warning amounts Monday night through Tuesday evening.  For Cuyahoga County (and possibly extreme NE Lorain County) and central/southern Geauga County, parameters support a decent band through Wednesday evening...still some time to figure if the and gets that far south, but if it does (which most indications currently suggest) parts of Cuyahoga County may see warning criteria amounts as well...eventually. 

I hope!  This winter has started off lame. Early out it seems promising but then it all seems to fall apart... 

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I hope everyone enjoys their white Christmas!

It seems not much has changed with the NW trend pulling another nice storm out from under Cleveland. One of these years the rare and elusive widespread 6”+ snowstorm will hit NE Ohio.

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Merry Christmas everyone! Nice to hear from you Trent. 

Only got 1.4" from this event. Disappointing, but the writing was on the wall yesterday and at least it's a sold white Chrismas with 2" on the ground and lots of blowing snow. 

It'll be very cold through next weekend with lots of little chances for snow and some LES, so I'm sure we'll keep gradually racking up some snow.  Hopefully the LES through Wednesday eventually dips far enough south to affect some of us.  The western basin will be frozen pretty good inside of a week. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Merry Christmas everyone! Nice to hear from you Trent. 

Only got 1.4" from this event. Disappointing, but the writing was on the wall yesterday and at least it's a sold white Chrismas with 2" on the ground and lots of blowing snow. 

It'll be very cold through next weekend with lots of little chances for snow and some LES, so I'm sure we'll keep gradually racking up some snow.  Hopefully the LES through Wednesday eventually dips far enough south to affect some of us.  The western basin will be frozen pretty good inside of a week. 

Merry Christmas. Yeah, hopefully the band can shift south at some point. It won't take more than a cold and calm night to freeze the western basin. The wrf doesn't seem to be updating. Yesterday runs brought the band very close.

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20 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Merry Christmas. Yeah, hopefully the band can shift south at some point. It won't take more than a cold and calm night to freeze the western basin. The wrf doesn't seem to be updating. Yesterday runs brought the band very close.

Here's the QPF from the 12z NMM and ARW:

 

NMM QPF.png

ARW QPF.png

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31 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Here's the QPF from the 12z NMM and ARW:

 

NMM QPF.png

ARW QPF.png

Thanks. Ouch! Painfully close. If those verify I can drive a couple miles north to see a foot of snow.

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Here's my first guess on the LES...I'm trying to sneak in a nap before the Cavs play so this write-up will be a little more curt than normal with no images. 

Winds will turn around to a more due westerly direction over the lake this evening behind a weak mid-level shortwave, which should allow convergence to move back south to northeastern Lake County and northern Ashtabula County and re-intensify over northern Erie County as we head into tonight.  This is expected to allow the lake effect snow band to push back onto land near the lake in this area.  Convergence will be strong near the shoreline with moderate lake-induced instability to go along with ample moisture below about 6-7k feet and EL heights of 8-10k feet (lower at CLE higher at ERI).  BUFKIT shows lift focused in the DGZ along with high RH through most of the DGZ promoting high ratios, which along with the convergence and decent but not outstanding instability should allow for 1-2" per hour snow rates thanks to the ratios in the band.  Some pre-seeding from Lake Michigan is also expected to develop tonight, which along with weakening winds maximizing residence time and a long fetch should allow the band to take full advantage of the fairly good parameters in place.  The band may move little from this evening into the overnight, and may produce 6-10" of snow in a few or several hour period of time where it affects.  The most likely area to see this will be extreme eastern Lake County, northern Ashtabula County, and the northern half or so of Erie County, PA. 

All models show the winds coming around to a solid WNW direction over the lake late tonight through Tuesday morning, which should push the convergence and band a little farther south.  Winds inland will remain WSW, and a strong temperature difference between over water and inland should result in a strong lake-aggregate trough, which along with the WNW winds not being terribly strong argue against the band pushing very far inland.  The hi-res models do try to push the band as far south as Downtown and NE Cuyahoga/central Geagua/southern Ashtabula County.  Given the aforementioned factors and known bias for models to place LES bands a little too far south, my guess is we'll see the band get to extreme NE Cuyahoga County (Euclid/Mayfield area) but not quite to Downtown and then points east into Lake County and Geauga County mainly near and north of route 6.  It may briefly get as far south as close to 322, but I'd hedge on heavier amounts being closer to 6.  With a solid WNW push of winds, the band will probably push south of the Ashtabula County and Erie County lakeshore for several hours late tonight into Tuesday morning.  Parameters remain similar to those described above, which should allow rates of 1-2" per hour to continue under the heart of the band.  Winds may move slowly enough for a the band to be relatively stationary for a few hours, possibly allowing another 4-8" of snow to fall under the band late tonight through noon Tuesday.  The area most likely to see this will be Lake County, northern Geauga County, Ashtabula County just inland from the lake, and perhaps far northeast Cuyahoga County. 

Tuesday afternoon the winds will back to the west/southwest over the lake ahead of a more robust shortwave, likely causing snow to lift north and potentially reorganize for a few hours over northeastern Ashtabula County into Erie County, possibly dropping another corridor of several inches of snow fairly quickly.  Behind that wave Tuesday evening through Wednesday the winds will gradually veer and instability/moisture depth will improve.  Winds inland will remain WSW and a strong temperature differential will remain between the lake and land, likely maintaining strong convergence near the shore.  This will push the band back down the shore and gradually a bit farther inland Tuesday night into Wednesday.  It may affect the northern Snowbelt (extreme NE Cuyahoga, Lake, northern Geauga, northern/central Ashtabula, parts of Erie County likely a bit inland) for a few hours later Tuesday evening as the winds on some models get hung up a bit ahead of another little 700mb vort max.  EL heights of near or better than 10k feet (higher on the ERI soundings) and good moisture to 7k feet, a long fetch with relatively weak winds/little shear on soundings over the lake, moisture from Lake Michigan, along with a saturated DGZ and strong lift centered in the DGZ in the band on both the GFS and NAM suggest the band could produce very efficient and heavy snow, with rates of 2 to perhaps 4" per hour likely Tuesday evening.  If it slows/stalls for a few hours over the northern Snowbelt, that corridor would see an additional 6"+ quickly and possibly up to a foot in short order. 

The band should resume its southward drift around midnight or so behind the vort max and should get into much more of Cuyahoga County.  This will be an interesting setup for Cuyahoga County late Tuesday night through a good chunk of Wednesday.  Models show winds of 285-295 degress with a clear trough axis near the county, with CLE BUFKIT soundings maintaining extreme instability, EL heights of near 10k feet, moisture in the lowest 5k feet at least (higher through mid-morning Wednesday), and lift centered in the DGZ.  A Lake Michigan connection should maintain through most of Wednesday and winds will be fairly light/well aligned, maximizing residence time and it won't be a short fetch.  There is enough juice for a warning criteria snowfall over much of northern/eastern Cuyahoga County including in or near Cleveland into central/southern Geauga County late Tuesday night and through Wednesday, with more disorganized snow showers focused mainly in the higher terrain in the rest of the Snowbelt during the day as the convergence should be well south by that point.  This band could also affect far northeastern Lorain County at times.  Still some time to evaluate the potential in Cuyahoga County, but a number of ingredients still appear to be in place.  One potential negative will be temps getting cold enough Wednesday afternoon and low-level dew points dropping enough to start drying out the DGZ.  This could cause snow ratios to diminish Wednesday afternoon, though right now indications are ratios should remain pretty high through Wednesday morning, especially in any organized bands where latent heat release would likely push the DGZ up into the clouds. 

The lake effect will really diminish Wednesday night, however, some additional accumulations aren't impossible.  EL heights will remain 5-7k feet with some moisture beneath the inversion and steep lapse rates.  Winds will be very light and veer onshore.  The light winds and strong low-level instability may favor meso-low development or at least some "tea kettle" lake effect that grazes the shore.  This could produce locally another couple inches or so Wednesday night mainly near the lake.

For total accumulations, think there's more than enough opportunity for heavy snow to go with 1-2' in the northern Primary Snowbelt.  The bands will be moving off and on which may limit the max potential in OH (and even in PA for additional snow starting this evening) to around 2 feet.  Kept the southern cutoff a bit north of what many models have, however, if factors continue to point to a decent period of LES in Cuyahoga/southern Geauga Counties later Tuesday night into Wednesday night amounts will need to be bumped up in those areas.  I fully think LES warnings will be needed for Lake and Geauga Counties.  Cuyahoga County will eventually need at least an advisory, with potential for localized warning amounts late tonight into Tuesday morning in the extreme NE corner of the county as well as for more widespread warning amounts Tuesday through Wednesday evening. 

5a4151fbd4f53_12-25snownologo.thumb.png.0f7d0364ee3813df4a306aa13e425c16.png

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Record Christmas Day snow in Erie along the lakeshore. 13.6" as of 5pm, must be pushing well past 16+" for the day now . KERI up to about 55" for the month of December, way above average, think it is 5th snowiest ever recorded.

Meanwhile...down in the "snowbelt"...the winter of nothingness continues.

To rub the proverbial salt, and I seek knowledge from you folks, can someone explain how the current very well defined intense band of LES lined up perfectly west to east heading directly into western Erie County, that would appear wants to pummel the 6n corridor, only to turn up the shoreline and hug the lakeshore as soon as the band hits the western Erie County line. Maddening.

Merry Christmas everyone, although feeling rather scrooge-like with another LES fail IMBY.

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43 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Record Christmas Day snow in Erie along the lakeshore. 13.6" as of 5pm, must be pushing well past 16+" for the day now . KERI up to about 55" for the month of December, way above average, think it is 5th snowiest ever recorded.

Meanwhile...down in the "snowbelt"...the winter of nothingness continues.

To rub the proverbial salt, and I seek knowledge from you folks, can someone explain how the current very well defined intense band of LES lined up perfectly west to east heading directly into western Erie County, that would appear wants to pummel the 6n corridor, only to turn up the shoreline and hug the lakeshore as soon as the band hits the western Erie County line. Maddening.

Merry Christmas everyone, although feeling rather scrooge-like with another LES fail IMBY.

The winds over the lake along and north of the band are west right now, causing the band to line up how it is.  On land, it's considerably colder (and that air is denser) and the winds are more WSW.  So when the band hits the denser air along the shoreline in extreme NE Asthabula and Erie Counties and air blowing offshore, it tends to parallel the shore.  For some reason models often under-do this effect and drive bands inland too quickly.  Winds on the lake are expected to go more WNW later tonight through Tuesday morning, which will hopefully push the band inland.  It's been very impressive in northern Erie County, and I can understand your frustration.  I do think you'll have a couple opportunities for snow through Wednesday night, but sadly won't get the huge totals northern Erie County has seen. 

My monthly total is running at 13.8" right now.   Have to imagine that's relatively close to normal for here.

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Thank you for that explanation, makes sense.

Not a total loss, from yesterday evening/overnight last night, had 4". A quick 3" in about an hour this AM before the band lifted north, then about 1.5" for rest of today/tonight - so 8.5" thus far from synoptic & LES. However, think it's time to move on from this paltry Edinboro area snowfall;)

Hopefully going to be closing on a property right after the Holidays that will take me where I want to be, eastern Erie County, right on PA/NY border next to the Peak ski resort. Least populated area, about highest elevation in county (1750'), and I think its the snow capital (200"+ average annually). On Weeks Valley Road, north of the Wilderness Lodge Cross Country Ski Resort. 10 acres with a cabin, will use as a camp / rec area for the next couple of years then build our dream home with the wife and our pups.

Means I am going to have to track snowfall at two locations now...

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Nice band over the lake. The second secondary band that formed seems  to be taking over. If only it would make it this far south. Thinking it may be a shutout for areas south of 322.

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The band wasn't really expected to get too far south this morning (some models showed it but their bias is showing pretty nicely here).  I hoped it would get to around route 6, it's a few miles north of that.  Unfortunately, it still hasn't really detached from the lake in Erie County, and I'm sure there'll be huge totals near the shore in Ashtabula and Erie Counties.  The winds will come around to 290 or so later tonight into Wednesday morning so the band will push south.  The winds won't be that strong so the band will likely again try to hug the lakeshore more than the models show, but even so it should get into much more of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties.  The GFS has steady winds at around 295 for several hours which would possibly let the band sit for a while just north of 480/422, while the NAM brings them around to the NW quicker.  Given the bias to push bands south so quickly the GFS solution may be better.  

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

The band wasn't really expected to get too far south this morning (some models showed it but their bias is showing pretty nicely here).  I hoped it would get to around route 6, it's a few miles north of that.  Unfortunately, it still hasn't really detached from the lake in Erie County, and I'm sure there'll be huge totals near the shore in Ashtabula and Erie Counties.  The winds will come around to 290 or so later tonight into Wednesday morning so the band will push south.  The winds won't be that strong so the band will likely again try to hug the lakeshore more than the models show, but even so it should get into much more of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties.  The GFS has steady winds at around 295 for several hours which would possibly let the band sit for a while just north of 480/422, while the NAM brings them around to the NW quicker.  Given the bias to push bands south so quickly the GFS solution may be better.  

It will be interesting to see what happens later tonight. 290 would be an ideal flow... But with weak winds I think the band will have a hard time pushing this far inland. Who knows... Maybe we'll see an inch or two as the band decays and pushes off to the southwest with the turning winds. 

Ice has rapidly formed on the western basin so that fetch will be lost by tomorrow. 

Don't mean to sound so pessimistic but what a waste the cold has turned out to be locally. 

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