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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Went 66/56/17/0.05"

 

Not a high confidence forecast. Was concerned that the Euro has a high in the lower 70's, and there may be a window of some sun mid morning into the afternoon, however the GFS and NAM don't show much potential to mix/overperform so judging by temps today behind the cold front think that mid 60's should work reasonably well. The low was difficult. Will it be a low around 12z in the morning or 6z tomorrow night? Went with the idea of the low around 12z in the morning as clouds/precip may move back in during the evening and sort of just blended the MOS and USL. Winds went a little above the USL, as they're already picking up nicely and strongest winds will be later. Precip wasn't sure on...HRRR has a little bit of measurable precip right after 6z, and the NAM/GFS/Euro both appear to show a little lobe rotating around the upper low during the evening that may bring some additional precip, but it looks scattered so that's a bit of a crap shoot.

 

My competition went 65/55/16/0.02" so pretty close

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Pretty much what everyone said here... tough forecast. Obviously biggest question is figuring out what happens with the cloud cover tomorrow. They should be stuck in the wedge most of the day and there should be some in-situ assistance via stratiform rainfall (with possible elevated convection?) as mid to upper level flow overruns the frontal boundary to the south. NAM was pretty consistent on continued cloud cover most of the day so that is what I'm banking on. ECMWF ensembles were basically all over the map forecasting between 0.00-0.75" of precip tomorrow. I think there is a decent chance for a bust high on the rainfall if the convection in Texas is poorly forecasted with the upper-level low.

 

Me: 64/54/16/0.05"

Competition: 65/54/17/0.02"

 

All things considered, our forecasts were remarkably close. So worst case for me is that I'll be down 2.7 points going into tomorrow. 

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