wi_fl_wx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 79/58/16/0 Locations to the SE made it into the 80s today, but I'm skeptical that MGM will clear out enough to get there. Had some thoughts about the low staying around 60 but didn't want to risk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 80/58/15/0.03 I guess my 0.03 doesn't matter too much, so I'm not worry about that. Seeing everybody going so warm concerns me, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 81/59/16/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 83/62/16/0 Actually had a warmer low but was worried the warm front wouldn't get there quite in time. Locations in the southeasterly winds to the south are still in the upper 60's/lower 70's so if the front gets there by 4-5z I could still see my low working out, but it's iffy. If they get some clearing I feel ok on the high, but I could see 78-85 depending on how much clearing. It may rain but chances were small so I just put 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 83/58/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 83/58/17/0.02 Think we see a 06z low that's in the 58-59F range. Worried about how much cloud cover there is tomorrow. It if they do see some sun, low 80s should be doable with decent mixing. I put a token amount of precip because there is quite a bit of uncertainty related to how far east the precip makes it both overnight and tomorrow night. A lot of the ECMWF ensembles had > 0.1" precip at KMGM before 06z tomorrow. Hedging my bets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 83/57/17/0... really not confident at all with the forecast, especially the low. My reasoning for the 57F is that the southerlies will get there and kick up the dew points, but that they'll be a little slower than some models have, and so dew points won't have time to respond quickly enough for the low to be closer to 59/60. But I could see scenarios on either side. Damn. Southerlies kicked in way late, but the clouds were enough to keep them up anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Temps really shot up in the last hour so I would be more comfortable if I'm in the warm camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Looks like they are going to clear out--my 79 is screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Looks like they are going to clear out--my 79 is screwed. Maybe not 79, but I can still see 80-81 working out which is a lot better than 83. Going from 76 to 83 in just few hours of warming left is a lot to ask, me think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Maybe not 79, but I can still see 80-81 working out which is a lot better than 83. Going from 76 to 83 in just few hours of warming left is a lot to ask, me think. I don't know... we're still ahead of schedule compared to models and MOS forecasts. I think 82-84 seems most likely to me, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I need the high and wind after being off on the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 And 81 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I need the high and wind after being off on the low Based on the latest observations, I think we have support for 15-16kts so far and we're probably heading for 83-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yea it cleared out quite nicely... now the question becomes how far east (if at all) that squall line can advance in W AL... most numerical guidance says it stays quasi-stationary and remains a couple counties west of KMGM, but squall lines are not always handled well by numerical guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 85F! Looks like a chance at 86F, but probably no higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 85F now. Congrats warm camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 85F now. Congrats warm camp! The camp was only 8 lmao. Possibly the high gets higher than anyone in the country expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Wow. Well I'll beat consensus today but have work to do tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Starting to look more and more likely significant precipitation might make it to KMGM before 06z... radar looks quite formidable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Starting to look more and more likely significant precipitation might make it to KMGM before 06z... radar looks quite formidable right now.I'm not really seeing any significant push east with the storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Wow, the temp tanked with that OFB that went through O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 80/64/9/0.12 Thinking the late afternoon line shown by the Euro has enough potential to drop precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 80/62/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Wish I double-checkced METAR before going through with my forecast... 79/63/7/0.05 EDIT: actually, dewpoints rose to 62 so we're okay me think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 83/64/10/0 Am taking a risk on the high and am a bit torn...however, large scale ascent doesn't look very strong for much of the day tomorrow so I'm thinking they may get away with a broken deck of mid clouds and get some solar insolation through them. It looks like they have decent potential to mix about as high as today if there's just a little more sun than models show, and temps at the top of the mixed layer look just about the same as today, so I think there's potential for the highs to bust warm again. If they are completely overcast that won't happen which is why it's a risk on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 83/64/10/0 Am taking a risk on the high and am a bit torn...however, large scale ascent doesn't look very strong for much of the day tomorrow so I'm thinking they may get away with a broken deck of mid clouds and get some solar insolation through them. It looks like they have decent potential to mix about as high as today if there's just a little more sun than models show, and temps at the top of the mixed layer look just about the same as today, so I think there's potential for the highs to bust warm again. If they are completely overcast that won't happen which is why it's a risk on my part. Boundary layer winds are much much weaker. How can they mix close to what they did today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Boundary layer winds are much much weaker. How can they mix close to what they did today? I don't see any inversions to stop them from mixing if the sun comes out. How do boundary layer winds being weaker prevent mixing? Honest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Boundary layer winds are much much weaker. How can they mix close to what they did today? Solar radiation would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 81/67/8/0.25 Guess I am wrong on the low...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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