Jonger Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 What is the average melt rate? I just mean at this point of the year, the rate is slowing down... The daily losses typically slow around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 What is the average melt rate? See graph on post #28....... Come on Friv, you know what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Right now, even at night GIS is extremely warm. -6C at the Summit. Which is 690MB shows that. The summit made it to an extremely warm -4 Celsius or 25 degrees F. That is down right balmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I apologize for taking up a bad attitude. I am also not going to take our guidance as serious. And I think we all need to take a good look at why. It's mis-leading on to many levels. Passive Microwave like Jaxa tracks this. I think this is from SSMIS not AMSR2 but we can also see it on AMSR2 below. We can see the model is all over the place. Whether it's showing ice loss where passive microwave shows no melt or snow where it obviously isn't snowing. the model confuses vapor or something. Never the less it's probably undergoing and overdoing melt at different times. Jaxa below is not an average but a one time scan at different times per day. Never the less we can see the same pattern as above. Showing the surface melting vs not. It even shows the Southern high elevation that didn't melt. It's obvious this year has turned out like 2011 and 2005 in terms of GIS. Maybe 2007(lower) or 2010(higher). But not close to 2012. I am not saying to not use the model for guidance but the idea that we can model GIS melt is silly considering how impossible measuring IR is with low cloud decks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 I apologize for taking up a bad attitude. I am also not going to take our guidance as serious. And I think we all need to take a good look at why. It's mis-leading on to many levels. Passive Microwave like Jaxa tracks this. I think this is from SSMIS not AMSR2 but we can also see it on AMSR2 below. We can see the model is all over the place. Whether it's showing ice loss where passive microwave shows no melt or snow where it obviously isn't snowing. the model confuses vapor or something. Never the less it's probably undergoing and overdoing melt at different times. Jaxa below is not an average but a one time scan at different times per day. Never the less we can see the same pattern as above. Showing the surface melting vs not. It even shows the Southern high elevation that didn't melt. It's obvious this year has turned out like 2011 and 2005 in terms of GIS. Maybe 2007(lower) or 2010(higher). But not close to 2012. I am not saying to not use the model for guidance but the idea that we can model GIS melt is silly considering how impossible measuring IR is with low cloud decks. So your 70% melt prediction busted hard. Greenland saw a slow melt day so you decide to try and discredit a model you have been prancing out for the pas week during the peak melt but now that it shows a result that doesn't fit you agenda you try and bash the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 So your 70% melt prediction busted hard. Greenland saw a slow melt day so you decide to try and discredit a model you have been prancing out for the pas week during the peak melt but now that it shows a result that doesn't fit you agenda you try and bash the model. I don't care if a broken model shows things like snow that didn't fall since there was no report of that kind of widespread precip, rain, snow, light or heavy, it's call fact checking. It's called reality. I would rather not toil in ignorance and put truth and accuracy above a bias ignorant agenda. I predicted a min of 500GT on Grace multiple times. It's clear that will happen. Soooo??????? In a week or two when you're 275-375GT prediction craps the bed I guess I should show up and bash you. Luckily for you, you once nailed the Hudson Bay freeze up or you would be batting 0.000 in the climate change forum with everything you talk about. You didn't read the paper on the model and how it works. What parameters it tracks to form it's output. Yet you ignore what I say and then pick out anything I am wrong about while ignoring reality because you are in love with cold and snow. Which is all good. I remember loving snow and cold like that when I was a child as well. But there came a point where scientific integrity is more important. You pretend like you care about that but you don't. Next... I never predicted that. I said one model run of the GFS portrays close to a 70% melt extent. So???? Global Warmer said: Posted 19 July 2013 - 10:41 PM Here is the 00Z GFS through the 27th. That portrays close to a 70% melt extent. This is what a prediction looks like: I can't see a scenario where Greenland approaches the 500GT from last year, not even close. if I had to guess I'd say we end between 275GT and 375GT of summer melt with a net gain for the year. We are closing in on 300GT for the melt season on the model you made the prediction from. My prediction was a min of 500GT on grace which won't be out until November. Look's good for you're entire 100GT range to fall short. You guys who have no humility come in and trash others while being terribly inaccurate over and over is something else. The median is 325GT which we may reach before August 1st. Good Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 GFS cools down Greenland substantially in the medium range.... Probably looking at 10% melt figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The 12z GFS has caved to King Euro as far as GIS is concerned. Looks like a pretty major -NAO. I would think we see GIS drop another 100GT at least if this pattern comes together. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 I don't care if a broken model shows things like snow that didn't fall since there was no report of that kind of widespread precip, rain, snow, light or heavy, it's call fact checking. It's called reality. I would rather not toil in ignorance and put truth and accuracy above a bias ignorant agenda. I predicted a min of 500GT on Grace multiple times. It's clear that will happen. Soooo??????? In a week or two when you're 275-375GT prediction craps the bed I guess I should show up and bash you. Luckily for you, you once nailed the Hudson Bay freeze up or you would be batting 0.000 in the climate change forum with everything you talk about. You didn't read the paper on the model and how it works. What parameters it tracks to form it's output. Yet you ignore what I say and then pick out anything I am wrong about while ignoring reality because you are in love with cold and snow. Which is all good. I remember loving snow and cold like that when I was a child as well. But there came a point where scientific integrity is more important. You pretend like you care about that but you don't. Next... I never predicted that. I said one model run of the GFS portrays close to a 70% melt extent. So???? This is what a prediction looks like: We are closing in on 300GT for the melt season on the model you made the prediction from. My prediction was a min of 500GT on grace which won't be out until November. Look's good for you're entire 100GT range to fall short. You guys who have no humility come in and trash others while being terribly inaccurate over and over is something else. The median is 325GT which we may reach before August 1st. Good Luck. We will see how my prediction works out pretty shortly. Right now we haven't passed 375GT so it's a bit early to be saying I missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Most of those temps are at sea-level, most of Greenland is WAY above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Most of those temps are at sea-level, most of Greenland is WAY above that. What temps? The animations are 850MB or 5000FT. 90%+ of the summer ice mass loss including 2012 is below 5000FT or 1500M. Most of that is between near sea level and 1000M or less. This is from the -12GT+ day. Almost all of the ice mass loss was below 1500M. Now if you are talking about these below, thean yeah almost all of them come from bare land not ice. You can get actual GIS temps here as well as estimated incoming solar radiation per day: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland-ice-shelf/nbsp/surface-conditions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 I don't care if a broken model shows things like snow that didn't fall since there was no report of that kind of widespread precip, rain, snow, light or heavy, it's call fact checking. It's called reality. I would rather not toil in ignorance and put truth and accuracy above a bias ignorant agenda. I predicted a min of 500GT on Grace multiple times. It's clear that will happen. Soooo??????? In a week or two when you're 275-375GT prediction craps the bed I guess I should show up and bash you. Luckily for you, you once nailed the Hudson Bay freeze up or you would be batting 0.000 in the climate change forum with everything you talk about. You didn't read the paper on the model and how it works. What parameters it tracks to form it's output. Yet you ignore what I say and then pick out anything I am wrong about while ignoring reality because you are in love with cold and snow. Which is all good. I remember loving snow and cold like that when I was a child as well. But there came a point where scientific integrity is more important. You pretend like you care about that but you don't. Next... I never predicted that. I said one model run of the GFS portrays close to a 70% melt extent. So???? This is what a prediction looks like: We are closing in on 300GT for the melt season on the model you made the prediction from. My prediction was a min of 500GT on grace which won't be out until November. Look's good for you're entire 100GT range to fall short. You guys who have no humility come in and trash others while being terribly inaccurate over and over is something else. The median is 325GT which we may reach before August 1st. Good Luck. The 12z GFS has caved to King Euro as far as GIS is concerned. Looks like a pretty major -NAO. I would think we see GIS drop another 100GT at least if this pattern comes together. We will see. What temps? The animations are 850MB or 5000FT. 90%+ of the summer ice mass loss including 2012 is below 5000FT or 1500M. Most of that is between near sea level and 1000M or less. This is from the -12GT+ day. Almost all of the ice mass loss was below 1500M. Do you realize how foolish you sound? You call DMI a broken model when it shows something you don't like but then prance it out when it shows heavy losses. Talk about no credibility.....in a span of 48 hours you go from posting the DMI map as fact to calling it broken to posting it again using it to validate your argument saying its accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Good News. Modeled melt stayed within the SD range today. Bad news. Models continue to clear things out, pump up heights, and a Southerly fetch, and strengthen the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 An interesting video: http://climatecrocks.com/2013/07/29/new-video-greenland-starting-to-slip/ Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 GIS has warmed up again over the North and big time over the Southern 2/3rds. It's mostly sunny almost everywhere. The 12Z GFS keeps warmth and heights over GIS and then expodes a massive ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Wesstern GIS had a reading reach at least 77F today. 68F right off the ice sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 King Euro is pretty begnign for melt at 12z ensembles and OP below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 the melt layer over the Southern 1/3rd of GIS according to soundings at 00z was still around 3000M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 If the euro and GFS are correct Greenland melt will be very slow.... The clock on Greenland melt is ticking fast. Most recent models look fantastic for the GIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 25.9C recorded yesterday at Maniitsoq Mittarfia (Sukkertoppen Airport) SW Greenland The previous all time record recorded on GIS was: The warmest temperature recorded in Greenland since 1958, was 25.5 ° C in July of 1990 at the Kangerlussuaq, inland station. http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/en/index/klima/klimaet_indtil_nu/temperaturen_i_groenland.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 NAO looks to go positive... Another positive for the GIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 If the euro and GFS are correct Greenland melt will be very slow.... The clock on Greenland melt is ticking fast. Most recent models look fantastic for the GIS. Green is a below zero 850 temp...Euro Most recent GFS is as good if not better looking for the GIS. How exciting! Good weather for the GIS is on the way if these models are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 The previous all time record recorded on GIS was: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/en/index/klima/klimaet_indtil_nu/temperaturen_i_groenland.htm I wonder how many times this record was broken in the 1930's.... The only reason it hasn't, not enough stations in the 1930's, the odds of breaking that record today is much higher with the additional stations. I only can find records from as far back as 1999 from that station. With a NE wind, it has a lot of rock to heat up at that airport. Nice Parking lot right under the sensor, I bet this would add a good 2-3C to the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Not to bad..almost into SD range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Danish confirm record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 The Latest GFS and Euro are beautiful. Should preserve the GIS and bring the melt to a near halt and possibly add on mass as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Positive to neutral NAO coming. The news couldn't be better for Greenland right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 It looks like we made it back to the edge of the SD line today. However the seasonal total is heading out of the SD range. This range is for 1990-2011. So this benign melt season is shaping up to finish at least 2SD below normal. We are about 20GT from being below the bottom of the SD line for the season. Tomorrow is another warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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