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Greenland 2013


LithiaWx

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We have a -NAO developing.  The12z models are more aggressive with it.  In the end when the final tally is in.  2013 will be less than 100KM3 behind 2012. Anyone can see this.  I am not sure why others can not. 

 

We haven't gone below average one time this summer in-spite of the amazing weather for GIS.  And we are on target for the largest melt of the season over the next couple weeks.

 

 

 

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So GIS is at it's max melting point so far this year during peak melt on the 2003-2012 climo.  Notice it was way above normal for half of the melt season so far. 

 

 

 

We see heights rise and high pressure dominate for the next week and only get stronger/  At the end of the run we can see a big warm push about to come in from Northern Canada.  This makes a lot sense with a meridional flow out to the SE of GIS and a huge SLP forming in the basin.

 

This will keep the current melt as strong as it has been to never go below normal all melt season inspite of of the "extent" going below normal.

 

 

 

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This is a a lot like the record sea level last year.  2013 is also going to finish out of the standard deviation range.  2013 is sitting at 280GT on the graph below.  2012 just plummeted and slows up over the next 8-10 days before dropping a lot again.

 

2013 will spend the next 10 days dropping -8GT per day.  Those model progs show an easy period of that with the sun being out a lot and overall warmth growing.  The Euro and JMA both agree.

 

If 2013 has a -6GT drop over the next 20 days that drops off -120GT from the total.  That takes 2013 to right above the black line.  If we dropped another -40GT by the end of the melt season then it finishes at 120GT above the 0 line and 80GT above 2012. 

 

If 2013 drops -8GT per day over the next 20 days it ends at 80GT over 0 line and 60GT above 2012. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Crappy albedo and sunlight are a bad combo for land ice. 

 

The melt was confined very close to the coast.  But it was sunny. 

 

The low albedo areas low in elevation torched.

 

This is a -7GT melt day with the melt extent being below normal.  But yet the actual melt was almost 2SD above normal.  The last 4 days have been -9, -8, -8, -7.  Now the melt extent is going to go back up and the Sunshine to be plenty while the air-mass overall warms. 

 

It speaks volumes when melt extent is below normal and melt is 2SD above normal at the same time when they used to have a higher correlation.

 

So what could have dramatically changed?  Either the melt area is getting warmer or it's albedo has gotten lower.  Guess those go hand in hand to some "extent." 

 

2013 is going to end with about a 2.5SD melt year equal to 2010 and 2011.  That is not benign. 

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GIS is progged to get rolled up and smoked. 

 

biggest torch of the Summer coinciding with the last few weeks of major insolation.

 

 

This is a huge torch for the Southern 2/3rds of GIS. 

 

Today was a -6.25GT melt day.  The lowest over the last 5 days at least.  It will likely be the lowest over the next 7-10 days.  Tonights 00z GFS is even warmer than the earlier runs.  I will post it as soon as it's done running.

 

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Here is the 00Z GFS through the 27th.  That portrays close to a 70% melt extent.  

 

 

 

fOq3lxa.gif

 

 

 

For those who are new to following GIS.  Most of GIS is between 60-82N.  The Northern part is a big melt region with lower elevations.  So it will lose it's insolation fast in August.  The Southern half can go longer into the First week of September. 

 

Right now insolation is still very high

 

 

 

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Here is the 00Z GFS through the 27th.  That portrays close to a 70% melt extent.  

 

 

 

fOq3lxa.gif

 

 

 

For those who are new to following GIS.  Most of GIS is between 60-82N.  The Northern part is a big melt region with lower elevations.  So it will lose it's insolation fast in August.  The Southern half can go longer into the First week of September. 

 

Right now insolation is still very high

 

 

 

gDbyCX8.gif?1

I just looked the the entire run. if the GFS is right Greenland will get a couple days of warmth but in general it stays very cold through the run.

I will say now I don't think we will see the melt percentage crack 40%. Maybe I end up being wrong but if is fun to put out a guess.

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So it's GIS update time.  We are in the home stretch now. 

 

 

 

Today we have a -6.75GT melt day.  This brings the three days under my 10 day 80GT prediction or suggestion which is a -8GT per day over 10 days.  We have had -6.25, -7, -6.75.  I expect this to go up. 

 

 

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This is a crude but strong way to show albedo and where there is strong surface melt. 

 

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Again these SSTs are wild.

 

West Greenland isn't looking to hot.  Except those huge pools of 7-9C.  Which 5x or more larger from 5C or warmer.  We are talking 40F to 48F with big parts over 45F off the landmass. 

 

If this doesn't seen wild to you.  Look at the anomalies.  These temps are anywhere from 3-7C above normal by the charts below.  The real life buoy, port, ship readings are showing a 9C right off shore.  That is almost 50F. 

x9hWRMi.png?1

 

 

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These are not normal times.  If folks are going to hate because it is what it is then so be it.  This is fascinating and exciting.  It's year after year after year of this anomalous melt and GIS turning to crapola.

 

 

The worst three days could be worse but are pretty bad.

 

 

First day only about 1/3 of GIS goes at 5-7C+. 

 

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The melt is even more vigorous on the 2nd of the three days.  This is a temp profile of 60-70% of GIS melting.  We will see if it can ramp up that fast or be detected that well. 

 

 

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This is now leading to huge 75% or more GIS melting.  Probably close to or at -15GT melt days. 

 

 

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The GFS Ensemble mean keeps trending towards the Viking ERA style back-smack mother nature is putting on GIS.  The NAO is actually going to tank a bit here for Summer for a little while at least. 

 

 

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GIS had a -11.25GT melt day. Even with some snow. Whether I believe it snowed of not doesn't matter when it comes to the numbers.

So ffar out of the 10 day period we have had -6.25, -7, -6.75, -6, -7, -11.25.

To reach -80GT we need -35.75GT over the next four days or -9GT per day.

We will see. The next 3-4 days are big warmth days. After day 4 it starts too cool. Especially over the far NW.

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GIS had a -11.25GT melt day. Even with some snow. Whether I believe it snowed of not doesn't matter when it comes to the numbers.

So ffar out of the 10 day period we have had -6.25, -7, -6.75, -6, -7, -11.25.

To reach -80GT we need -35.75GT over the next four days or -9GT per day.

We will see. The next 3-4 days are big warmth days. After day 4 it starts too cool. Especially over the far NW.

I believe it is extremely clear we didn't have a 11.25 GT loss on yesterday numbers. The 9 we did lose was epic enough without inflating the numbers more than they were.

On another note we are nowhere near 70% surface melt. I doubt we get there this season.

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Unfortunately my 10 day/80GT idea can no longer be properly tracked.

 

After a big melt day. We now have a bigger one.  This one went passed -12GT.  Without the aid of a snowfall.  Today will be very big as well.  We will likely move out of the Standard Deviation range shortly.

 

 

swAl6Yb.png?16quldFH.png?1

 

 

today could be another chart topping melt day.

 

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where is the 11.25 source?

 

Oh my bad.  It was 9.25.  I was reading the lines between 4 and 8GT wrong.  I thought they were 5 and 10.  It was at the end of a 26 hour awake day. 

 

This would give the period that I was tracking for a 10 day period of 6.25, 7, 6.75, 6, 7. 9.25, 12+?

 

That comes to 54.25/7 = -7.75 per day.  But since we have no idea if it was -12GT or -15GT. It's pretty mute.  It will probably be well over 80GT anyways.

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We are sitting about 40GT behind 2012 on this date.

 

And about 180GT behind 2012's final.

 

 

I am not sure what approach 2012 means.  But we are almost certainly going to finish within 50GT of 2012 according to this model.

 

The model below showed 2012-2013 peak at essentially 500GT.  We are currently at 225GT.  So it shows we have lost 275GT.

 

 

 

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Total summer melt is at about 200GT based on this graph. last season we lost around 500. 2012 and 2013 are about to be worlds apart in the next few weeks with 2012 going off a cliff right now.

I can't see a scenario where Greenland approaches the 500GT from last year, not even close. if I had to guess I'd say we end between 275GT and 375GT of summer melt with a net gain for the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 is still about 200GT short of 2012 right now..... There is about a zero percent chance we even approach 2012.

 

 

The actual amount 2012 loses from July 18th onward is about 150GT.  We have lost about 60GT over the past week.  So 120-130 seems likely.  150 would be an incredible haul.  but I doubt it's a zero percent shot.

 

 

The gap between 2012 and 2013 is about to look like the Grand Canyon.

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In 2012 Greenland lost nearly 200GT of mass over the next two weeks. There is a 0% chance 2013 will even approach that figure. Expect the gap to widen greatly over the coming days.

 

 

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Forecast has -NAO for the remainder of the period.

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6.25 GT loss day.. I expect the gap to widen between 2012 and 2013. 2012 drops off a cliff in the next couple days.. Even more so than the one it just had...

I can't see a scenario where 2013 approaches 500 GT melt for the melt season. We have seen around 300GT loss.. I can't envision 200 more. Jmo, I could easily be wrong.

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