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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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nzucker-- Thanks for your reply.  I have been measuring on the board and measuring in many different areas around my house.  All point to the reports that I have made.  Unfortunately, I think I am just unlucky.  Going for a walk right now around the property.  I will report on my findings.  Glad to hear that you are getting some good snow.  Enjoy!

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nzucker-- Thanks for your reply.  I have been measuring on the board and measuring in many different areas around my house.  All point to the reports that I have made.  Unfortunately, I think I am just unlucky.  Going for a walk right now around the property.  I will report on my findings.  Glad to hear that you are getting some good snow.  Enjoy!

 

It sounds like you are doing everything perfectly. In general, I think Southern Westchester has done better than Northern Westchester in the last few years despite the fact that you probably average 3-4" more than Dobbs Ferry, although of course it depends on your elevation and proximity to the Hudson River. I'm in a good spot because I'm on the ridge abutting the Hudson at 350-400' and not downtown at 50' near the warm river...these things do make a difference, and that accounts for some of the higher totals I measure which may seem suspicious if you don't know my location. The Dobbs Ferry co-op has averaged 36" since 1947, but I'd wager my average is more like 37-38" in my location. Since Winter 00-01, my house is averaging about 42" snow per season.

 

There have been a lot of systems with tight cut-offs near the coast in the last few years: this storm, 1/27/11, Boxing Day, 2/10/10, 12/19/09...just to name a few. Dobbs Ferry probably got more snow than Ossining in all of those events despite what we know climo says about your location being better. The coast has seen very favorable patterns for snow since Winter 08-09, with the exception of last year when no one got very much.

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Overall, I think the best bet would've been using the Euro's track/QPF blended with the Nam's dynamics.  The Nam obviously over did it a bit, but it clearly recognized the the potential for a more organized system.  Pretty much exactly what it should be used for inside the 30 hour time frame. 

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