TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 People in this & snE thread think its done already It was.done with the 12z euro.yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It was.done with the 12z euro.yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The lines falling apart quick hopefully it clears early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Willorh in sne is concerned about all the debris and rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Raining here. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Raining here. Not good. Whats not is good is me being awake right now. Bickering with the future in laws over the rehearsal dinner killed my ability to pass out. At least ill be awake for these morning showers...FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Raining here. Not good. didnt the EURO have this morning rain in Northern VT? Busts by any models who called for an MCS this morning anywhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 didnt the EURO have this morning rain in Northern VT? Busts by any models who called for an MCS this morning anywhere in the northeast. Nobody expected an all out MCS in NE, was always going to be dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Full sunshine here but see the clouds coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like some heavy rains/storms in northern Sullivan County flying southeast...probably will die just as the showers before them are doing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like some heavy rains/storms in northern Sullivan County flying southeast...probably will die just as the showers before them are doing now. It's dying pretty quick, but most say our later threat is already ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nobody expected an all out MCS in NE, was always going to be dying NWS Buffalo expected an MCS / Derecho this morning, ask lakeeffectkid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NWS Buffalo expected an MCS / Derecho this morning, ask lakeeffectkid. So did dr forbes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NWS Buffalo expected an MCS / Derecho this morning, ask lakeeffectkid. They picked up .30 overnight...yikes. I didnt see the call for a Derecho this morning...Forbes backed off his ridiculous statement from earlier in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I better not get screwed here today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I would keep expectations down a little. While we could get severe weather, models continue to pinpoint areas well north of us for the concentrated area of storms. Euro is well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I would keep expectations down a little. While we could get severe weather, models continue to pinpoint areas well north of us for the concentrated area of storms. Euro is well north. Storms that move south after dark...into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There has never been a great severe event where it rained in the am. only a few hours left to destablize with the shortening daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 There has never been a great severe event where it rained in the am. only a few hours left to destablize with the shortening daylight hours. There is plenty of time to destabilize in the afternoon. The front keeps pushing north on models though, including the euro, placing areas north of us in the bullseye zone. While models are not good tools for discrete cells, they are good to locate the areas with the best chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'd say today is pretty much a 50/50 WRT who gets storms. Interested to see what changes the SPC will make. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There is plenty of time to destabilize in the afternoon. The front keeps pushing north on models though, including the euro, placing areas north of us in the bullseye zone. While models are not good tools for discrete cells, they are good to locate the areas with the best chances. We may clear faster than the areas to the north would that help our chances of the bullseye being south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wind fields are impressive but thats about it at this point, a strong trigger is lacking and strong instablity is not a lock. Not sure if the strong wind field justifies a MOD risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wind fields are impressive but thats about it at this point, a strong trigger is lacking and strong instablity is not a lock. Not sure if the strong wind field justifies a MOD risk. Mod risk placed further south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like the best stuff is coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I hope the people that are hoping for tornadoes get hit head on and it passes right over their house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There has never been a great severe event where it rained in the am. only a few hours left to destablize with the shortening daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like the best stuff is coming in now. sounds like something I'd say--thought you said we'd have a dry hot day with a passing shower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Is it bad that I got sexually aroused from looking at the day 1 convective outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 sounds like something I'd say--thought you said we'd have a dry hot day with a passing shower? Day hasn't started. Only 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Steve d already selling I survived the 2012 nyc Derecho thongs on his website. Metfan bought them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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