Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not sure I have done one of these before - confidence is low Overall M/A/M Temps: Normal Overall M/A/M Precip: 10.50-11.50", normal/slightly above March: Normal to +1 April: -1 May: Normal to +1 Warmest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Brownsville/Orlando Coldest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: International Falls/Fargo/Montana Wettest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Memphis/Little Rock - Just east of that corridor Driest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Central Plains/Front Range Analogs: 1975, 2002 EDITED: 2/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Hurricane Guy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice outlook. I see you say your confidence is low. I don't think analog's are a good predictor of what is to come this year. I agree with you on march and may. I do not think April will end up 1-2 below though. I think april is -.5 to +.5. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice outlook. I see you say your confidence is low. I don't think analog's are a good predictor of what is to come this year. I agree with you on march and may. I do not think April will end up 1-2 below though. I think april is -.5 to +.5. Good luck my confidence on the monthlies couldnt be any lower....so I don't disagree with you...it honestly wouldnt surprise me if it torches....2 of my 7 analogs torched in April, but in 2002 we were in a drought, so I'd temper it a bit...that's part of the reason I threw in the CONUS stuff...If I miss locally, but do well with my anomalies in the places with the strongest signal I won't feel as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hurricane Guy, why do you think analogs aren't good analysis this year and what are you basing your April call on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 FWIW for the severe guys, you already know about 2002 and 2008, but 1999 had an insane day in late April (4/23).....not sure if that was a big widespread outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not sure I have done one of these before - confidence is low Overall M/A/M Temps: Normal to -1 Overall M/A/M Precip: 9-10", slightly below normal March: Normal to +1 April: -1 to -2 May: Normal to -1 Warmest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Tucson/Brownsville/Orlando Coldest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: International Falls/Fargo Wettest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Memphis/Little Rock Driest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Sacramento/Miami/Southern New England Analogs: 1939, 1950, 1975, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2008 Early Peek at summer (not a summer outlook): slightly above overall, Hot June, equal chances on July/August nice forecast.......I heard WEATHER53 is going COLD and Snowy for June and July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looking at ENSO patterns as a primary factor, I feel 2009 should be an analogue. Otherwise, good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looking at ENSO patterns as a primary factor, I feel 2009 should be an analogue. Otherwise, good work. based on ENSO alone 2009 certainly could be in the mix...I threw it out based on the cool/cold winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 based on ENSO alone 2009 certainly could be in the mix...I threw it out based on the cool/cold winter primary analogs are 1975 and 2002...they were quite divergent in the spring, so the outlook is very low confidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 2000 is a good enso, ao, and noa match. Teleconnection behavior during the winter of 99-00 is very similar to this year so far. The Nina was a lot stronger but it faded during spring/summer. I might be misreading your analogs though. Is your 1999 analog for the 99-00 season for the spring of 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not sure I have done one of these before - confidence is low Overall M/A/M Temps: Normal Overall M/A/M Precip: 10.50-11.50", normal/slightly above March: Normal to +1 April: -1 May: Normal to +1 Warmest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Brownsville/Orlando Coldest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: International Falls/Fargo/Montana Wettest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Memphis/Little Rock - Just east of that corridor Driest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Central Plains/Front Range Analogs: 1975, 2002 EDITED: 2/24 I tweaked it lol...confidence is still in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 2000 is a good enso, ao, and noa match. Teleconnection behavior during the winter of 99-00 is very similar to this year so far. The Nina was a lot stronger but it faded during spring/summer. I might be misreading your analogs though. Is your 1999 analog for the 99-00 season for the spring of 1999? It was 98-99, but I tossed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It was 98-99, but I tossed it Gotchya. I ran temp maps for Mar-May for 2000 and they look alot like your forecast so it may not be a bad analog. When I dug into the AO stuff back in December, 99-00 stood out as one of the best analogs for this winter but the weenie in me didn't want to believe it. Other than some cold weather in Jan 2000, the winter ended up being quite similar. If we have another Nina, 00-01 could be a really good analog for the upcoming winter. MBY had 11" of snow that year and it would feel like a blockbuster after this year but this discussion is for a future thread and then Ji can cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Gotchya. I ran temp maps for Mar-May for 2000 and they look alot like your forecast so it may not be a bad analog. When I dug into the AO stuff back in December, 99-00 stood out as one of the best analogs for this winter but the weenie in me didn't want to believe it. Other than some cold weather in Jan 2000, the winter ended up being quite similar. If we have another Nina, 00-01 could be a really good analog for the upcoming winter. MBY had 11" of snow that year and it would feel like a blockbuster after this year but this discussion is for a future thread and then Ji can cancel it. 2000-2001 had good snows from philly north. I do think based on all factors 2000 is the best analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Not sure I have done one of these before - confidence is low Overall M/A/M Temps: Normal Overall M/A/M Precip: 10.50-11.50", normal/slightly above March: Normal to +1 April: -1 May: Normal to +1 Warmest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Brownsville/Orlando Coldest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: International Falls/Fargo/Montana Wettest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Memphis/Little Rock - Just east of that corridor Driest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Central Plains/Front Range Analogs: 1975, 2002 EDITED: 2/24 temp call so far is awful...precip call pretty good.....wettest anomalies so far just west of my corridor and including Little Rock....Driest pretty good too, prediction a little south of where the driest is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good luck with this. April could be all over the place. Winter was tough enough. Now we can just moan about too much or too little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 Not sure I have done one of these before - confidence is low Overall M/A/M Temps: Normal Overall M/A/M Precip: 10.50-11.50", normal/slightly above March: Normal to +1 April: -1 May: Normal to +1 Warmest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Brownsville/Orlando Coldest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: International Falls/Fargo/Montana Wettest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Memphis/Little Rock - Just east of that corridor Driest Spring Anomalies for CONUS: Central Plains/Front Range Analogs: 1975, 2002 EDITED: 2/24 so far pretty bad....March was a D, I don't feel that bad about April...There was a mean trough in the great lakes and Mid Atlantic...We are just battling against antiquated norms to some extent so I should have gone warmer....generally the region was right around normal, though on the high side usually so I give it a C....my conus temps anomalies have been an F...precip not that bad...just push everything west a bit (wet plains, dry rockies)...but May perhaps could shift it all east though not as far east as my prediction I think..all in all pretty rotten but could be worse I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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