famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0z was rain at TTN. http://charlie.wxcas...FC/GFS_KTTN.txt Only because of the BL, which could theoretically be overcome by heavy precip. The 6Z is now solidly rain even if the BL ends up a bit colder due to the precip intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 EC is milder compared to 12z...tiny burst of snow on the front end just northwest of Philly at the onset and then the snow/no snow line quickly retreats to above the Lehigh Valley Yeah its milder and the initial low comes off the coast slightly farther to the north than the 12z run. The ensemble mean (which has been the case the last three runs) is running slightly farther to the north than the op. Lots of uncertainty around the 850mb 0C field which I'm suspecting is N/S displacement. BTW high confidence about the placement of the surface high in Quebec, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 BTW high confidence about the placement of the surface high in Quebec, Placement, yes, but this forecast is a lot about the strength of it, too, right? The GFS is about 5mb weaker with it and doesn't dam nearly as much, which is why you don't see the snow getting much farther south than the NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Only because of the BL, which could theoretically be overcome by heavy precip. The 6Z is now solidly rain even if the BL ends up a bit colder due to the precip intensity. It also nudged temps above 0C above 850mb, paging Rib, paging Rib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Placement, yes, but this forecast is a lot about the strength of it, too, right? The GFS is about 5mb weaker with it and doesn't dam nearly as much, which is why you don't see the snow getting much farther south than the NY border. I should have put strength too, the Euro freebie site both have 1030+ highs. I was just comparing op Euro vs ensemble mean Euro. The 06z GFS still gives MPO about 0.4" of non-liquid w/e at the start, ABE around an inch or so of some slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st80ugfd80 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 verbatim, phl intl sees basically nothing in terms of snow per gfs if you go off soundings. The last few runs of a few of the models have been trending slightly colder. I think the N/W suburbs are slowly increasing thier chances of seeing some frozen precip. However, what does fall will not last long. The Lehigh Valley may have some icing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The last few runs of a few of the models have been trending slightly colder. I think the N/W suburbs are slowly increasing thier chances of seeing some frozen precip. However, what does fall will not last long. The Lehigh Valley may have some icing problems. Actually the 6Z NAM and 0Z EC trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like the 12z Nam holds the cold and might start a little later while GFS warmer at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like the 12z Nam holds the cold and might start a little later while GFS warmer at 54 NAM only looks colder because it is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Only because of the BL, which could theoretically be overcome by heavy precip. The 6Z is now solidly rain even if the BL ends up a bit colder due to the precip intensity. Warm trend continues on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Warm trend continues on the GFS. Maybe only a 1025-1026 high in Quebec. No damming = no frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That progged east-southeast wind is a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That progged east-southeast wind is a killer. Fully agree looks like a traditional march rain event for most now maybe even all rain for the lehigh valley if the warming continues on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like a Poconos slop fest in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like a Poconos slop fest in the cards Euro trended 3-4 mb weaker with the high over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro trended 3-4 mb weaker with the high over Quebec. 1-2 ending as rain sleet & drizzle in the mtns? gotta wonder if that aggressively worded afd this morning was too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's funny...at my work everyone is talking about this major ice storm and that are coming to me (as the unofficial weather guru) asking what I think about this and I keep telling them rainy and don't expect a school delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro trended 3-4 mb weaker with the high over Quebec. Its still stronger than the GFS. This is the first Euro OP run that was pretty close latitudionally (and not south) of the ensemble mean with the low track. The Op has trended farther north and warmer since "bottoming" with the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Am I missing something? I haven't seen ANY model that brings precip in by 12z Wed. Not that it can't happen (it often starts earlier than many models). But a categorical "snow before 8am" as close to Phila. as Montgomery Co, PA? Not even "chance"? Even the coldest model, the NAM keeps measurable snow well north of even our N&W burbs. Our own RPM model doesn't even have it snowing in the Poconos (and it was the best model, by far, in the Friday Fiasco-only brought PHL to 48, while NAM had 71 and GFS 68!) Again, my question is less about the specific forecast than the certainty with which it appears (both in forecast and discussion). Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Warm trend continues on the GFS. New GFS is even warmer still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Am I missing something? I haven't seen ANY model that brings precip in by 12z Wed. Not that it can't happen (it often starts earlier than many models). But a categorical "snow before 8am" as close to Phila. as Montgomery Co, PA? Not even "chance"? Even the coldest model, the NAM keeps measurable snow well north of even our N&W burbs. Our own RPM model doesn't even have it snowing in the Poconos (and it was the best model, by far, in the Friday Fiasco-only brought PHL to 48, while NAM had 71 and GFS 68!) Again, my question is less about the specific forecast than the certainty with which it appears (both in forecast and discussion). Glenn That would have to be a helluva push of moisture early and often to get it in by 8 AM...an no model has anything in near Philly by 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not an easy storm to forecast...especially for Minneapolis. You wanna see a storm snowfall forecast change faster than Bolaris changes girlfriends? http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/02/capricious-models-blamed-for-changing.html -- link to post... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Appevum3PEdzdEYyRHJRc0FDVks4aktPbkhDRmw5NHc -- link to forecasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not an easy storm to forecast...especially for Minneapolis. You wanna see a storm snowfall forecast change faster than Bolaris changes girlfriends? http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/02/capricious-models-blamed-for-changing.html -- link to post... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Appevum3PEdzdEYyRHJRc0FDVks4aktPbkhDRmw5NHc -- link to forecasts.... thats a neat google link. i've never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 thats a neat google link. i've never seen that before. I like it as well. I probably will "borrow" this format when there's a legitimate snowstorm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I like it as well. I probably will "borrow" this format when there's a legitimate snowstorm to track. Looking forward to seeing it next December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I like it as well. I probably will "borrow" this format when there's a legitimate snowstorm to track. ignore adam, you will get the chance in mid march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looking forward to seeing it next December No Tropical Storms this year. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looking forward to seeing it next December 12/5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looking forward to seeing it in April fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0z NAM/GFS both got colder. Slop for the suburbs, an inch or two for the Lehigh Valley, and more for the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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