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Predict DTWs Snowfall.


SpartyOn

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looking good

DTW got 19.3" after you made that post last year by the way.

Might as well do it for this year.

Through January 16, 2013.

Season to date: 11.6"

Normal to date: 17.7"

Normal from January 17 to end of season: 25.0".

Knowing how unpredictable the weather is, knowing it can still be snowing 3 months from now...knowing chicago has seen 1.3" of snow total thru mid-January, I just cant bring myself to make a prediction. But anyone else...feel free.

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I say by looking at the next 10 days or so. Looks Difficult for anything Substantial. So probably another late month thaw. Im going with 16" more. 27" is my call

Fwiw January 26th is the date when DTW's average snowfall hits the halfway mark of the season, just under 22" down, just under 22" to go.

 

One HUGE thing to consider is the window of time we are talking here is long. The fact that 3 of the past 4 Marches have been next to snowless is so not normal it isn't funny. The bottom line is we have a solid 3 more months to add on to the season total. Seeing what is happening in Chicago is scary because it is showing that such an outrageous thing IS possible, even though we are not seeing it in our own backyards. And on the other end of the spectrum, we have seen some impressive snowstorms into April, as well as ungodly stretches of Feb/Mar snowfall (see 1900 or 2008). We could end the season at 15" or at 70" and 10 days from now we may be no closer to a realistic guess than we are now.

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Bump.

1899/00 would be cool.

I know, 1899-00 would be insane. Only 9.4" on the season through February 3rd, and we ended up with 69.1"!!! (10.0" storm on Feb 4, 14.0" on Feb 28-Mar 1, and 16.1" on Mar 4-5, and 26" snow depth at obs time March 5th which was probably closer to 30" at its peak before sleet/rain pelted it down).

The reason I made the call of a blockbuster coming in a lackluster winter was because it was only fitting. We have been in a pattern in recent years where it does anything and everything to snow here. We saw insane snowfall from 2007-11, hell our only "bad" winter of the 4 years was near-to-slightly above average in 2009-10 (a strong Nino, which usually sees below normal snow)...the other 3 were way, way above normal. But yet despite ALL this, we couldnt get THE storm. So I said it would only be fitting if a sucky winter, when the ingredients just dont want to come together often for snowstorms, ends up surprising us with THE storm.

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While futility watches are still out in parts of SW MI (on life support with this LES), NE IL and SE WI, todays 1.5" at DTW puts them at 13.1" on the season, already surpassing the low-water mark of 12.9" in 1936-37. We have not quite hit the half-way point of the snow season, and with lots of potential in the longrange (not to mention Deedler and others calls of a back-loaded winter) I say not only an average but an above average snow season is still within reach for DTW imo :):weenie:

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