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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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I was watching an online video show put on by some of my storm-chaser friends, in which they reviewed the 2011 season. Of course, the general consensus is disappointment-- yet another year without a red-meat chase subject in the USA. This is not to take away from Irene-- it had great impact in some communities in E NC and the parts of the Northeast that flooded-- but as a chase subject, it was fairly lame. I mean, it's hard to get excited about a peak-season cyclone with a central pressure of 952 mb and Cat-1 winds. That just ain't right. What is this, the WPAC? lolz

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So, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Irene came out today: http://www.nhc.noaa....92011_Irene.pdf

The biggest revelation is that the cyclone was deemed in post-analysis to be a tropical storm at landfall in NJ-- not a hurricane. (So Irene was not the first 'cane to hit NJ since 1903. :( )This doesn't come as a big surprise, as several of us doubted it was a 'cane by that point. (Landfall intensities are NC 75 kt, NJ 60 kt, NY 55 kt.)

The report is not rich with detail Re: the NC landfall. For example, the Meteorological Statistics section skips from the Bahamas to NYC, with no discussion of the NC or NJ landfalls. Kind of odd. The Casualty and Damage Statistics section is a pretty brisk summary.

However, the Forecast and Warning Critique section has an interesting discussion Re: the high intensity bias for the NC-landfall forecast. The report attributes the lame winds to an incomplete ERC: once the inner eyewall collapsed, the outer one never really consolidated, resulting in a 'cane without a real core-- just a bunch of rain bands and a rather broad circulation. That makes sense. I have to say, the winds really lacked bite considering this was a 952-mb cyclone over NC!

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So, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Irene came out today: http://www.nhc.noaa....92011_Irene.pdf

The biggest revelation is that the cyclone was deemed in post-analysis to be a tropical storm at landfall in NJ-- not a hurricane. (So Irene was not the first 'cane to hit NJ since 1903. sad.png )This doesn't come as a big surprise, as several of us doubted it was a 'cane by that point. (Landfall intensities are NC 75 kt, NJ 60 kt, NY 55 kt.)

The report is not rich with detail Re: the NC landfall. For example, the Meteorological Statistics section skips from the Bahamas to NYC, with no discussion of the NC or NJ landfalls. Kind of odd. The Casualty and Damage Statistics section is a pretty brisk summary.

However, the Forecast and Warning Critique section has an interesting discussion Re: the high intensity bias for the NC-landfall forecast. The report attributes the lame winds to an incomplete ERC: once the inner eyewall collapsed, the outer one never really consolidated, resulting in a 'cane without a real core-- just a bunch of rain bands and a rather broad circulation. That makes sense. I have to say, the winds really lacked bite considering this was a 952-mb cyclone over NC!

Yep Irene was a lot like the earthquake earlier that week. The strongest one the area is probably going to see during opur lifetime, but still rather sucky. 5.8, no biggie. I am cool with this as long as they downgrade Floyd 45MPH for NJ because Irene had much stronger winds than Floyd. If NHC lists them at the intensity, they are wrong.

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