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well needed heavy rains on the way


ineedsnow

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SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE TIME WHEN THE FORECAST GETS MORECOMPLICATED. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATERSINCREASING TO THE 2.0-2.5 INCH RANGE...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLYLOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS A MODEST20-40 KT...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING QUITE YET. THEPROBLEM IS THE TIMING...AND WHETHER A TROPICAL TIE-IN TO THEREMNANTS OF EMILY CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CURRENTLY THINKING SHOWERSBECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

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I don't know... Judging by rad trends this is light to occasionally moderate strata rains, and probably good for about 6-8 hours. Not seeing a lot of back building and in fact, the hi res sat shows clearing cutting east through central PA/NY... Yet looking at the 18z NAM would have us in a bowl of pea soup through Monday.

One thing is for certain, with regional LIs in the -1 to -2 range through Monday, if the skies get optimistic at all with all that boundary layer TD and moisture around it will likely result in instant CBs with localize excessive short duration 2 pixel water boarding events.

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This rain shield is taking hours and hours to decay, but decay it is... And, as expected, the NAM has been way over developing this. 00z run has ALB getting 1.87" between 00z and 2am, and they are at .51 and ended there. No returns west.... The shredded appeal is migrating through now and probably won't be more than .25" to .6" variably, more S.

I think tomorrow is more interesting for heavy rain folks. I believe the high degree of conditional instability will spark numerous cumulonibi throughout the day as still high sun angle works on a lower level murk. Regional LI is down to -3 and -4 now!

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This rain shield is taking hours and hours to decay, but decay it is... And, as expected, the NAM has been way over developing this. 00z run has ALB getting 1.87" between 00z and 2am, and they are at .51 and ended there. No returns west.... The shredded appeal is migrating through now and probably won't be more than .25" to .6" variably, more S.

I think tomorrow is more interesting for heavy rain folks. I believe the high degree of conditional instability will spark numerous cumulonibi throughout the day as still high sun angle works on a lower level murk. Regional LI is down to -3 and -4 now!

Golf cancel tomorrow?

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Slow greens. But I don't think it out of the question that just as this rain has been overdone in the runs, the skies may be more optimistic than modeled until destablization takes over.

Thanks... i dont mind sitting on the couch all day... Plants are loving this though! I'm gonna post a couple of watermelons in the garden thread... they are softballs!

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