earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It depends where the ridge is setup, if the ridge is setup too far west with a good portion of it centered off the West Coast then yes that would happen....in this case I am still thinking the storm either go west or out to sea....its hard to ignore the out to sea scenario since we've had trouble sustaining any sort of western ridge so far for long periods...if the ridge does indeed flatten back out this storm is going out to sea...if not its going west...unless the NAO block remains further west. Yeah..I definitely agree regarding the ridge positioning. With the -PNA it actually becomes really difficult to get a well positioned ridge as far as the east coast snowfall track goes. That being said the NAO block needs to stay. The Euro is breaking it down much faster than the GFS and that actually has some effect on the storm track. The confluence is well weaker and the heights really pump. The GFS is stronger with the block and the confluence/etc and pushes the shortwave underneath the blocking further southeast as a result. The GFS ensembles also develop a really strong west based -NAO in the long range, so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Ocean temps fine.. but without Arctic air? This airmass is impressive for early December, but not January, and without a banana high, any moderation brings p-type issues to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Also, for the little that it's worth, the 18z DGEX was pretty far off shore and similar to the GFS and further southeast members. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif That being said the 200mb jet streak is really sweet. Cool eye candy. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex250mbWindsHeightsNA162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 This airmass is impressive for early December, but not January, and without a banana high, any moderation brings p-type issues to the coast. But why are you looking at one side only? There is a large supply of cold air to the North! In this type of setup, if a storm strengthens, it has that cold air to pull down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Also, for the little that it's worth, the 18z DGEX was pretty far off shore and similar to the GFS and further southeast members. http://raleighwx.ame...6_county180.gif That being said the 200mb jet streak is really sweet. Cool eye candy. http://raleighwx.ame...eightsNA162.gif Should have better divergence aloft and in turn, makes for a stronger vorticity advection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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