msp Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 well, looks like we'll finally get a significant rainmaker for a good chunk of the state. NHC brings it ashore near rockport, tx, and then shoots it toward the rio grande and west texas. hgx up to 50% pops in CLL with a comfortable high of 93F on saturday. just about ditto for IAH. here's to hoping it grows significantly in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well I'm not one to open my doors to Don Corrleone but after visting Austin recently and looking at waht was suppose to be lake Travis....this is an absolute god send for S. TX. Even 2 or 3 inches is better than nothing. Best of luck, hopefully it is a prolific rainmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 kbtx headlining with it, but not much of a story. especially with many mets here aiming south with the forecast track, i can't expect much of an impact for the brazos valley outside of some decent rain. galveston watching and waiting... and begging for a storm to fill up the brazos: http://www.khou.com/home/Galveston-officials-keeping-an-eye-on-Don-126286208.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Morning e-mail from Jeff before RECON arrived: Tropical Storm Watch is extended southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to west of San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be issued for portions of the TX coast later this morning Discussion: Poorly organized tropical storm Don over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning with winds of 40mph. Since yesterday afternoon convection near and around the small center has weakened and the satellite presentation is looking poor as Don has become increasingly squeezed by a building high over the NE Gulf of Mexico and upper low over eastern MX. Weak to moderate easterly wind shear has developed over the system and as noted before given is very small size such minor factors can really have a big impact. Recon aircraft will be in the system within the next few hours and we shall see what they find. Track: Good news is that the track guidance ingested the recon data from yesterday afternoon and have come into much better agreement on the track of Don mainly toward the WNW and the lower to middle TX coast. The GFDL and GFS upper coast hold outs yesterday afternoon have now fallen closer in line with the rest of the guidance suite with the GFDL still being the right most (eastern) model toward the Matagorda Bay area with the rest of the guidance now fairly tightly clustered around Corpus Christi. One may say…remember Rita and Ike…but we are not dealing with a large and powerful hurricane, but a very small tropical storm and the ridge of high pressure is already starting to build westward along the US Gulf coast and this should help Don move more to the left (west) than suggested yesterday. The EURO model has been consistent the entire time on this track and appears to have had the correct idea all along. The 400am NHC forecast track has been shifted southward and now has landfall Friday night just south of Corpus Christi. Intensity: Such tiny systems are at the mercy of many atmospheric variables that can cause very rapid changes in intensity both up and down. Weak shear and dry air can rapidly weaken such systems while favorable conditions can result in explosive development. Don has struggled to maintain deep convection since yesterday afternoon under light easterly shear and upper level convergence (sinking air aloft). It is likely that surface pressures are up due to the overall lack of convection…but we should wait until the plane gets into the system this morning before making too many assumptions based on satellite data. None of the major global model show much development of the system, even the usually aggressive HWRF and GFDL. Nearly all guidance keeps the system a tropical storm through landfall. NHC has lowered their landfall intensity to around 55-60mph down from 65-75mph yesterday and this seems reasonable. However, remember that these tiny systems can spin up very quickly and conditions near the TX coast will be more favorable for development….it is still possible that a small window for quicker intensification may occur just prior to landfall. For now will continue to go with a 60-70mph tropical storm or just below hurricane intensity. Impacts: Small size of the system will make impacts limited to very near the point of landfall (wind and tide wise). Rainfall will be more expansive around the system. Rainfall On average 2-4 inches will be common near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible mainly near the center (in or around and just south of the Corpus area and then extending inland toward Del Rio). Rainbands north of Don from Rockport to the upper TX coast will bring an average of .5-1.5 inches with isolated amounts of 2-3 inches possible especially around Matagorda Bay. Given the exceptional drought conditions in place, this rainfall will be extremely helpful. Wind Tropical storm force winds will be likely in a very small area near and just to the right of where the center cross the coast or mainly across Kenedy, Kleberg, and Nueces counties. Gust to tropical storm force winds will be possible in squalls over San Patricio, Refugio, and Aransas counties. Weakening TS force winds will spread inland over Jim Wells, Bee, and Live Oak counties early Saturday morning and into Duval, McMullen, Atascosa, Frio, and La Salle counties Saturday midday. Tropical storm force winds should reach the coast Friday evening around 700pm. Tides Tides will increase by late Friday along the middle and lower TX coast as Don approaches. Tides will run 1-3 feet above normal on the Gulf facing beaches (barrier islands) from Corpus Christi Bay southward to where the center crosses the coast. Tides will run 1-2 feet above normal from Corpus Christi Bay to Matagorda Bay. North of Matagorda Bay tides will run around 1 foot above normal. Some minor coastal flooding may be possible along the north end of Padre Island and around Mustang Island early Saturday morning. Actions: Residents in the TS watch area should be making preparations for the landfall of a tropical storm within the next 36 hours. Main impacts will be felt across Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Kleberg, and Kenedy counties and these are the counties where preparations should be underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM DON LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 949 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... .NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LAND LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1N...LONGITUDE 90.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TX...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT TX. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. FOR THOSE NEARBY...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AND BECOME READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA. TXZ235>237-291500- /O.UPG.KHGX.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KHGX.TR.W.1004.110728T1449Z-000000T0000Z/ JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- 949 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... $$ GMZ330-350-370-291500- /O.UPG.KHGX.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KHGX.TR.W.1004.110728T1449Z-000000T0000Z/ MATAGORDA BAY- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM- 949 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Normally being North of the Center is the happy place to be for rain, but I have bad feelings my yard gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Normally being North of the Center is the happy place to be for rain, but I have bad feelings my yard gets screwed. i don't think it will end all that pretty for a lot of us. still only 50% at CLL. gust forecast never goes above 25mph. saw today that texas a&m-corpus christi is closing this evening and will stay that way until monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 state climatologist calling it a drop in an empty bucket: http://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/Tropical_Storm_Don_Not_A_Drought_Breaker_Says_State_ClimatologistTexas_AM_Prof_126357218.html interesting comment about don hurting the cotton harvest. ps: i think i've mentioned it before, too, but nielsen-gammon is a great guy and fascinating prof. i was real lucky to have him for ATMO 201. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Only indirectly associated w/ Don, but I hear thunder at the Galleria and radar shows a decent storm approaching my lawn just near Veterans/1960 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 not much in the way of precip over texas yet--just a couple showers approaching the valley and a few near corpus. the heaviest banding south of the center looks like it may pass over the BRO area. it figures, given that it is the one small location in texas not currently classified as being in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 i think it'll fill in a little as the circulation interacts with land a bit more...not gonna be a drought buster but still will have some beneficial rains N of the landfall zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 i think it'll fill in a little as the circulation interacts with land a bit more...not gonna be a drought buster but still will have some beneficial rains N of the landfall zone Yep. Feeder bands have been developing offshore of the Upper TX Coast and moving inland all day. Just had my second tropical downpour of the day and another is heading inland. Radar estimates suggest some 4-6 inch amounts in Chambers County and over near Beaumont in far SE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 looks like beaumont has picked up 0.72" and orange co. a little over an inch GR3 saying storm total rainfall approaching 3" both over near the golden triangle and inside the loop in houston... no idea how accurate that is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 That's weird. According to the advisory Don just made landfall, but is it true that there's pretty much no rain with it? On the radar you can see the circulation, but almost nil rain. If so, this would be one of the first tropical systems that featured rains fading away as it reached the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Well so much for that tropical storm headed towards Texas. You know that's one nasty death ridge when a tropical storm can't break through it. Heh, that would piss me to hear this off if I lived down there. I love the heat, but that type of drought in combination is just not bearable. They're now saying the grounds are so dry that it's not only rivaling the dust bowl but now homes are shifting off their foundation. The only bright side is it will help in continuing our warm/hot weather up this way, for all statistical/warminista purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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