earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Before it starts, I can say this. The Euro weeklies released today develop a huge west based NAO block weeks 2-3 (absolutely textbook)..which would certainty send most people here through the roof with joy. In other news, the 00z Euro just initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 yay! can't wait to see some day 10 storms, in all seriousness, hopefully it stays consistent in showing that threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Before it starts, I can say this. The Euro weeklies released today develop a huge west based NAO block weeks 2-3 (absolutely textbook)..which would certainty send most people here through the roof with joy. In other news, the 00z Euro just initialized. That thing is nuckin futs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Before it starts, I can say this. The Euro weeklies released today develop a huge west based NAO block weeks 2-3 (absolutely textbook)..which would certainty send most people here through the roof with joy. In other news, the 00z Euro just initialized. Low solar induced -NAO FTW. Things are going according to plan so far with temps. Now we just need some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Before it starts, I can say this. The Euro weeklies released today develop a huge west based NAO block weeks 2-3 (absolutely textbook)..which would certainty send most people here through the roof with joy. In other news, the 00z Euro just initialized. That's impressive. Pieces are falling in place, for storms to have more potential and for us to have the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Shame this is not a Nino.... STJ baby. Time to Polar Jet cranking... How does the Pac look? any classic PNA ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Shame this is not a Nino.... STJ baby. Time to Polar Jet cranking... How does the Pac look? any classic PNA ridge? 12z had west coast ridge and so did last nights 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 12z had west coast ridge and so did last nights 0z run That's great news, Tom. Let's see what we can do tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That's great news, Tom. Let's see what we can do tonight! 0z had a bigger ridge, 12z got squashed down somewhat by the goa low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Low solar induced -NAO FTW. Things are going according to plan so far with temps. Now we just need some Temperatures are going to be plenty cold this December but it'll be frustrating if we can't pick up any snow with the pattern being so frigid. It will be even more frustrating if we get a cutter around 12/12 after nearly two weeks of bitter cold, and then go right back to cold after the rainstorm ends. I'm liking the NAO tendency but we need to see a different pattern in the Pacific that either forces a classic PNA for coastal development off the NC Capes or that allows for an overrunning pattern into the arctic air. So far everything is being suppressed by the ULL over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 90 has snow showers for se pa del and s jers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Would like to see the positive trend continue. Saw models hinting at encouraging signs in the pattern that would hint at future potential. Loved the 0z GFS prediction for the pattern, sure was loaded with potential once this block relaxes. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_216.shtml The evolution of the pattern predicted is beautiful. The positive PNA ridging really forces the cold into the eastern US and with a classic block in place along with STJ influence, the pattern is ripe. The blocking looks persistent, but everytime it relaxes watch out. December 10-15 looks like a suspect period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 96 has it also for the same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Can't post the actual weeklies but I think it's worth saying that if that were to verify, Isotherm and I have agreed that he would probably cry tears of joy, Chris L would probably end up in the hospital after passing out, metfan would tell us that it is now winter, and most peoples winter forecasts would be in jeopardy of going up in flames. The block advertised continues strongly, and in classic fashion, through week 4 (January 3rd). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Can't post the actual weeklies but I think it's worth saying that if that were to verify, Isotherm and I have agreed that he would probably cry tears of joy, Chris L would probably end up in the hospital after passing out, metfan would tell us that it is now winter, and most peoples winter forecasts would be in jeopardy of going up in flames. The block advertised continues strongly, and in classic fashion, through week 4 (January 3rd). LOL. Well, I won't be in town from Dec 26th to Jan 1. I'll be in Lake Tahoe, (not a bad place either for snow ) So, let's hope we get it before then! Christmas Blizzard FTW!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 lol earthlight, thats great news. 00z euro should give us some love but i wont jynx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Can't post the actual weeklies but I think it's worth saying that if that were to verify, Isotherm and I have agreed that he would probably cry tears of joy, Chris L would probably end up in the hospital after passing out, metfan would tell us that it is now winter, and most peoples winter forecasts would be in jeopardy of going up in flames. The block advertised continues strongly, and in classic fashion, through week 4 (January 3rd). It might not go down in that exact fashion, but overall I believe the pattern will sure as hell not be horrid. We will definitely have our opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 I think what's most impressive about the weeklies is how persistent and west based the block is pretty much post day 10. If this does come to fruition, it's safe to say we've entered some sort of multi-year cycle with an NAO averaging negative, and very favorable and persistent blocking. Many should recall how much we struggled for any semblance of blocking back in the late 2000 winters. It's been a complete blocking lockdown the past 12 months or so. It's becoming increasingly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Would like to see the positive trend continue. Saw models hinting at encouraging signs in the pattern that would hint at future potential. Loved the 0z GFS prediction for the pattern, sure was loaded with potential once this block relaxes. http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_216.shtml The evolution of the pattern predicted is beautiful. The positive PNA ridging really forces the cold into the eastern US and with a classic block in place along with STJ influence, the pattern is ripe. The blocking looks persistent, but everytime it relaxes watch out. December 10-15 looks like a suspect period. A weak STJ, nothing like December 09-Feb '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I think what's most impressive about the weeklies is how persistent and west based the block is pretty much post day 10. If this does come to fruition, it's safe to say we've entered some sort of multi-year cycle with an NAO averaging negative, and very favorable and persistent blocking. Many should recall how much we struggled for any semblance of blocking back in the late 2000 winters. It's been a complete blocking lockdown the past 12 months or so. It's becoming increasingly impressive. John, How's the Pac looking on the Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 144 arctic air mass headed towards the eastern lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 156 504 thickness entering western ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 through 156, the goa is further west allowing for the ridge to pump more than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 A weak STJ, nothing like December 09-Feb '10. No but I am not expecting a repeat of that. Any relaxation of the block with some STJ influence or a vortmax dropping down into the trough could bring some prospects for snow. It beats the current pattern the next 6 days. The cold will be there, just need the moisture influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 -12 to -16 850s from dc to bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 through hr 168 -nao is east based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 -12 to -16 850s from dc to bos Goodness. We have the cold alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hour 168 big time Miller B energy coming straight out of West-Central Canada into the Northern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 174 sub 1008 clipper centered over east central nd, lgt precip in northern plains into western lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.