Where is the 2010/2011 La Niña Heading?

[Clifford]

I thought this should be spun off as a new topic.

Over the last few months we've seen significant warming in the equatorial regions, Niño 1 & Niño 2.

There has also been the loss of the characteristic "waves" of cold surface temperatures along the equator.

Despite these changes, the Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions remain with a cold anomaly, just less than in the preceding Winter.

Looking at previous sea surface temperature charts, however, the transitions between La Niña and El Niño tend to be very abrupt covering the entire equatorial region from Central America to New Guinea, with the La Niña sea surface temperatures just dissolving over a number of days or weeks. And the transition tends to occur about this time of year.

It looks to me like we will actually be following a year much like 2008 in which the Eastern Niño 1&2 are tending warm, but the Western Niño 3&4 are continuing to be cold.

The La Niña continued to influence the temperatures throughout 2008, and into mid-2009 (as above).

According to my calculations based on the UAH Discover Sea Surface (LT) data set, this last week has brought the lowest global surface temperature anomaly since Mid-February (-0.111).

Previously I've discussed that La Niña cycles following strong El Niño years, such as we had in early 2010, typically endure for at least 2 years.

Anyway, despite the weakening of the La Niña this spring, I'm still anticipating that the La Niña will hold on for another year. Perhaps somewhat moderate as some people have suggested, but more negative than positive.

[BethesdaWX]

Not sure we go back into Nina, but any Nino that develops should be in the Weak Range. Subsurface waters looking like anything that will develop would be east based.

Subsurface looking less impressive for a Nino.

The atmosphere clearly doesn't want a Nino though, and if they can't work in tandom, usually Neutral ENSO results. Just my take.

[Snow_Miser]

Weird, but interesting. According to this animation, it appears that the Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 Regions have actually been cooling in the past few days.

[ORH_wxman]

Most dynamic models have a warming to slightly positive anomalies in the summer before cooling back to slightly negative in the fall. My guess is we end up with a weak Nina or neutral negative for next winter.

[tacoman25]

Neutral of some sort is definitely most likely. Weak La Nina next most likely.

[nzucker]

Most dynamic models have a warming to slightly positive anomalies in the summer before cooling back to slightly negative in the fall. My guess is we end up with a weak Nina or neutral negative for next winter.

This happened to a certain extent in 2008 when we warmed out of Niña, and then had a comeback for a weak Niña in 08-09. I guess there's not too much reason to expect differently this time given that the subsurface looks a bit pathetic for a more powerful El Niño?

[skierinvermont]

This happened to a certain extent in 2008 when we warmed out of Niña, and then had a comeback for a weak Niña in 08-09. I guess there's not too much reason to expect differently this time given that the subsurface looks a bit pathetic for a more powerful El Niño?

This is the highest April OHC since the mid 90s, except preceding the 1998 and 2010 strong El Ninos. It's a bit early to make predictions for next winter based off OHC, but as of this point OHC is quite high. There have been 1 strong, two moderates and multiple weak Ninos with lower April OHC.

[Clifford]

Weird, but interesting. According to this animation, it appears that the Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 Regions have actually been cooling in the past few days.

Great animations.

Your charts are in absolute temperature, not anomalies.

June/July/August is winter for the southern hemisphere.

We just passed the Spring Equinox (sun above the equator, and now heading north) on March 20.

So one would naturally expect the southern hemisphere and the equator to cool slightly.

There is more ocean in the South than the North. So absolute global sea surface temperatures tend to be coolest in the summer months (June/July/August).

But, somewhere tied into that is why we often see Nina/Nino transitions about this time of year.

[ORH_wxman]

With PDO raging negative right now, its going to be a bit tough to ride any seasonal warming into an actual El Nino IMHO. Anything's possible, but it usually flips the table in late summer.

[tacoman25]

This is the highest April OHC since the mid 90s, except preceding the 1998 and 2010 strong El Ninos. It's a bit early to make predictions for next winter based off OHC, but as of this point OHC is quite high. There have been 1 strong, two moderates and multiple weak Ninos with lower April OHC.

How strong is the correlation overall between April OHC and ENSO the following winter?

[skierinvermont]

How strong is the correlation overall between April OHC and ENSO the following winter?

Just estimating after perusing charts of monthly OHC and the ONI... not tremendously strong. There's definitely some correlation... +OHC in April is usually followed by a +ONI winter and -OHC in April is usually followed by a -ONI winter. The correlation of April OHC is better to the summer and early fall which is why I think we will probably flirt with weak Nino conditions for a period.

As I understand it the next month or two is pretty critical in determining where we go after that. I think most likely back to neutral neg or weak Nina.

[tacoman25]

Just estimating after perusing charts of monthly OHC and the ONI... not tremendously strong. There's definitely some correlation... +OHC in April is usually followed by a +ONI winter and -OHC in April is usually followed by a -ONI winter. The correlation of April OHC is better to the summer and early fall which is why I think we will probably flirt with weak Nino conditions for a period.

As I understand it the next month or two is pretty critical in determining where we go after that. I think most likely back to neutral neg or weak Nina.

Cool. The OHC is certainly one factor to consider, but I think there are more factors that favor a non-Nino next winter, which is why I think neutral is most likely at this point.

[Clifford]

If you look at the last 3 NOAA charts:

http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.5.5.2011.gif

http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.5.9.2011.gif

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.5.12.2011.gif

There seems to be a marked cooling in the Niño 3 region over the last week or two (roughly marked below).

The multiple "blue spots" right along the equator in the 5/12 chart (see arrows) appears to be an early sign of a strengthening La Niña.

Looking at the recent UAH temperatures. There has been a recent upswing in CH4 & CH5. However, by a thin margin, the sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped to the lowest value since February 2011.

This seems to indicate a negative trending Niña.

[OHSnow]

Weird, but interesting. According to this animation, it appears that the Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 Regions have actually been cooling in the past few days.

Those are actual temps, not anomalies. Anomalies can warm at the same time actual temps cool (if they cool slower than usual -- we are heading into southern hemisphere winter after all).

[LakeEffectKing]

Those are actual temps, not anomalies. Anomalies can warm at the same time actual temps cool (if they cool slower than usual -- we are heading into southern hemisphere winter after all).

However, this is not the case for the near equatorial areas near the W. Coast of S. A.....a modest drop in the anonmolies is observed over the last 2 weeks.:

[nzucker]

The warmth in the ENSO regions has really broken up on the 5.12 NOAA SST map. I was expecting to see a warmer picture, but Region 3 seems to be losing its warmer waters quickly.

[VAwxman]

The waters warmed in response to the snap back down in global AAM that occurred in April. We'll get a great test as to whether it was temporary or not in the coming weeks thanks to the latest major MJO wave and associated monster AAM rise. This event could be a game changer one way or the other (if it leads to a new round a notable ENSO warming, or if it fails and makes it easier to slide back into more solid Nina territory). Hard to say right now. Stats definitely argue for a Nina rebound longer term, but this is a more complex than usual scenario.

[VAwxman]

The waters warmed in response to the snap back down in global AAM that occurred in April. We'll get a great test as to whether it was temporary or not in the coming weeks thanks to the latest major MJO wave and associated monster AAM rise. This event could be a game changer one way or the other (if it leads to a new round a notable ENSO warming, or if it fails and makes it easier to slide back into more solid Nina territory). Hard to say right now. Stats definitely argue for a Nina rebound longer term, but this is a more complex than usual scenario.

The MJO / AAM surge is definitly having an impact, with the daily 3.4 anomaly now slightly on the + side for the first time in a long time. We'll need to see how long it lasts since we should see the MJO weaken and allow an AAM downturn again here soon. But looks safe to say nina is pretty much dead for summer. Beyond that it's still trickier.

[Clifford]

Finally, after nearly a month of very little sea surface temperature changes, the sea surface temperatures (UAH) seem to be dropping again.

With the last 3 days (6/15, 6/16, and 6/17 being: 294.134, 294.121, 294.090)

http://discover.itsc...S_chLT.r001.txt

Yeah, it has been jumping around, and this is only the last few days... but overall it has been decreasing through June.

The rhythmic wave-like surface temperature anomalies that I noted earlier at the equator seem to have returned (La Niña currents often have these waves, but somewhat more pronounced).

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.6.16.2011.gif

It was around May/June of last year when the sea surface temperatures started dropping last year. Changes haven't been rapid, but seem to be moving in the direction of lower temperatures this fall and a return to La Niña conditions.

[Snow_Miser]

The Cooling of the Equatorial Atlantic might also have some influence on the Global SSTs, but it seems that since the SOI has also begun to rise again, that La Nina is on it's way back.

Not only does the cooling of the Equatorial Atlantic possibly have an impact on Global Temperatures, but it's also a sign that more frequent and intense Tropical Waves will be rolling off of the African Continent.

The SOI took a recent dip, but appears to be heading back up. The Southern Ocean Index is a measurement of the atmospheric circulation, and when it is positive, it indicates a La Nina-like circulation.

The CFS indicates that a weak to moderate La Nina should be in effect for the early part of 2012.

[ORH_wxman]

I continue to think that a cold neutral or weak Nina is probably most likely going into this winter. The warming just can't seem to get over the hump and you usually need to do that in the summer before climo kicks back in the late summer or fall. In 2009 we saw some warming too in late spring and early summer and then it died.

[nzucker]

Trade winds dominate for the next week:

SOI has returned to positive values:

June 19: +6.40

June 20: +15.46

June 21: +12.65

June 22: +18.91

[ORH_wxman]

Trade winds dominate for the next week:

SOI has returned to positive values:

June 19: +6.40

June 20: +15.46

June 21: +12.65

June 22: +18.91

That might be the knockout punch for the already diminishing chances of a weak El Nino.

[nzucker]

That might be the knockout punch for the already diminishing chances of a weak El Nino.

The MJO is also not lending any help to the development of a warm ENSO regime:

[Clifford]

For the last couple of charts, it has been looking decidedly more Niña like in the Niña 3 & 3.4 regions.