baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Surprised you aren't excited for this upcoming event Cmich--a good event for ND with this incoming S/W. Pretty impressive stuff--most guidance is now closing this off past 500 hpa. A semi-arctic front in some ways--haven't had any good frontal events up that way all year. A quick-hitter, but it will be interesting while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Surprised you aren't excited for this upcoming event Cmich--a good event for ND with this incoming S/W. Pretty impressive stuff--most guidance is now closing this off past 500 hpa. A semi-arctic front in some ways--haven't had any good frontal events up that way all year. A quick-hitter, but it will be interesting while it lasts. Oh i'm pumped, latest trends are pointing towards a nice event maybe 4-5 inches with blizzard conditions. Just a pretty localized event so I haven't said anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Oh i'm pumped, latest trends are pointing towards a nice event maybe 4-5 inches with blizzard conditions. Just a pretty localized event so I haven't said anything. Good low level CAA and deep tropospheric cyclogenesis from surface to 500+ hpa should support good mixing even with the stout inversion. Good gust potential. These frontal bursts are always fun events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 The 850-700 hpa height falls from 12Z Friday to 0Z Saturday over ND/SD/MN are spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 yall can keep your semi arctic fronts up there...i'm starting to get used to this transition into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 yall can keep your semi arctic fronts up there...i'm starting to get used to this transition into spring I only want snow if it is going to be a big bopper of a storm. I am enjoying the 60s here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 NWS GFK hoists the winter storm watch--Bismarck going advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 NWS GFK hoists the winter storm watch--Bismarck going advisory. Ya i think Dan is working tonight, I wanna read what he has to say in his afd, I pretty sure from here to the border friday night is gonna be a mess. hopefully it'll stop those Canadians from flooding the city on saturday, although it doesn't seem like anything can stop them from heading down here every weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 NAM is a joke--0Z GFS comes in stronger and closes the upper low off even earlier. Talking about tanking mid levels over ND. Looks like a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 00z GFS spitting out 50kt H92 winds straight down the Red River Valley. This is an ugly scenario, particularly if surface temps stay near or below freezing today. There is 4-5 inches of fresh fluff on the ground in Grand Forks. 2m temps advertised in the low to mid 30's and clouds bouncing around some March radiation should allow existing snow to get a minor seal. Will see if 40+ mph gusts break it. That kind of wind with falling snow will be bad enough. Only takes an inch or two of snow with wind to knock out a number of intersections around town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 00z GFS spitting out 50kt H92 winds straight down the Red River Valley. This is an ugly scenario, particularly if surface temps stay near or below freezing today. There is 4-5 inches of fresh fluff on the ground in Grand Forks. 2m temps advertised in the low to mid 30's and clouds bouncing around some March radiation should allow existing snow to get a minor seal. Will see if 40+ mph gusts break it. That kind of wind with falling snow will be bad enough. Only takes an inch or two of snow with wind to knock out a number of intersections around town. Hi I am working...I wrote the Blizzard warning.....the other short term fcstr wrote the AFD. GFS has been very consistent...still showing sfc low tracking nr hwy 2 to nr Thief/Fosston at 00z. Snow on backside of low will move in nr 00z or just a bit after and with strong winds do expect poor conditions. The NNW wind component down the valley is always a good wind for us and often winds exceed model MOS expectations esp when accompanied by a pressure rise like tonight. One thing about the snow....it is fluffy yet and yes today will get a bit abv 32F but 30-35 mph breaks it and more importantly falling snow with the wind is key as it is the deal breaker between a blizzard or not. So leaned toward yes. Out of city areas bad for sure...in town bad but always tough to get true Blizzard sometimes right in the city. But we just dont forecast for city folks... Next question is when will melt begin down south....general thinking from local folks here is late March....snowpack is cold and will take some time to warm up and then truly start the melt. --Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hi I am working...I wrote the Blizzard warning.....the other short term fcstr wrote the AFD. GFS has been very consistent...still showing sfc low tracking nr hwy 2 to nr Thief/Fosston at 00z. Snow on backside of low will move in nr 00z or just a bit after and with strong winds do expect poor conditions. The NNW wind component down the valley is always a good wind for us and often winds exceed model MOS expectations esp when accompanied by a pressure rise like tonight. One thing about the snow....it is fluffy yet and yes today will get a bit abv 32F but 30-35 mph breaks it and more importantly falling snow with the wind is key as it is the deal breaker between a blizzard or not. So leaned toward yes. Out of city areas bad for sure...in town bad but always tough to get true Blizzard sometimes right in the city. But we just dont forecast for city folks... Next question is when will melt begin down south....general thinking from local folks here is late March....snowpack is cold and will take some time to warm up and then truly start the melt. --Dan The NAM has been horrible with this storm. The 12Z this morning was really the first to get its act together. Euro has been very good and GFS the last 2 days has been pretty good as well showing a significant wind event/blowing snow event. THe height falls with this storm in the low levels are out of this world. Should enhance mixing--the dynamic tropopause is pretty spectacular for such a compact system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 It's not snow yet but once that cold air filters in, its going to be quite the scene up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 It's not snow yet but once that cold air filters in, its going to be quite the scene up there These events are always interesting up there. This thing is just still getting its act together too regarding the upper level cold front interacting with the low level baro zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Yeah looks to be strengthening at the moment, precip on the backside of the developing system appears to be snow according to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 68 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Certainly not that warm with the colder air digging into that precip band up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 KISN 111807Z 31034G48KT M1/4SM SN BLSN BR VV001 M05/M06 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 31048/1759 P0000 Gusting to 55 at Williston in western ND with blowing snow reducing vis to less than a 1/4 SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 From the ND DOT: The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) in coordination with the ND Highway Patrol has closed the eastbound and westbound roadways of Interstate 94 from Bismarck to Dickinson due to reduced visibility and a number of a traffic incidents on this roadway. This portion of the Interstate will remain closed until further notice. The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) has extended the No Travel Advisory to north central North Dakota due to areas of zero visibility from blowing and drifting snow. Motorists should be advised that areas of scattered slush on the roadway are turning into ice, and blowing and drifting snow is making travel difficult in the advisory area. Cities in the No Travel Advisory include: Killdeer, Beulah, Garrison, Velva, Harvey, Center, Wilton, Underwood, McClusky, Minot, Mohall, Towner, Parshall, Bottineau, Crosby, Bowbells, Williston, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City, New Town and surrounding areas. The Travel Alert has been extended to the cities of: Steele, Glen Ullin, Bismarck and surrounding areas. A Travel Alert remains in effect for central North Dakota due to heavy rain and snow creating slush on the roadways and strong winds creating reduced visibility. Motorists are encouraged to reduce speeds as they may encounter slush on the roadway. Conditions are such that motorists can still travel, but may experience gusty winds causing areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Various ND DOT webcams from across the state. Pretty much whiteout wherever the snow is falling. Definitely a dangerous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 wow nice grabs, i've got a new camera i'll try and snap some pictures tonight in the parking lot and across the street if things really get going and we go under 1/4 mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 These are awesome pictures for those dealing with spring on the East Coast. Winter lives on in the Northern Plains Are these sort of frontal blizzards common in the Dakotas? I know you guys get a lot of snowfall in the late season, but I thought it was more from Panhandle Hooks etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 These are awesome pictures for those dealing with spring on the East Coast. Winter lives on in the Northern Plains Are these sort of frontal blizzards common in the Dakotas? I know you guys get a lot of snowfall in the late season, but I thought it was more from Panhandle Hooks etc... Depends on the year. A more typical scenario is when an arctic front pushes across the state from the northwest after it drops into the US CONUS out of Alberta. No arctic air here--this is just a very strong and compact shortwave rapidly intensifying and deepening. It is a pretty unusual looking storm for up there in terms of the height field configuration and the overall thermal setup. In many ways this is more impressive than the more typical strong arctic fronts and short duration blizzards those create. Typically those only last a few hours. Here was a beast arctic front from 2008 that brought brief (approx 1-2 hrs) of blizzard conditions to GFK. 850 thermal advection: Note the height field config and the elongated Polar Vortex. Much more cold air--and much more typical. http://www.meteo.psu...08/us0129j3.php Compare to this storm: Somewhat compact and low amplitude at 12Z: Note the generation of vorticity and the strong height falls at 500 hpa by 03Z: Deep tropospheric height falls from surface to above 500 hpa is indicative of a very well developed and intense dynamic tropopause. Rapid height field changes occur as the upper level cold front links up with the low level baro zone as winds increase rapidly aloft owing to an increased horizontal thermal gradient at all levels of the atmosphere (thermal wind relationship: http://en.wikipedia....ki/Thermal_wind ) These types of storms are special--and this is why I advocate the use of Isentropic Potential Vorticity in determining the strength and "depth" the upper level cold front may have on potential cyclogenesis. These rapid height falls through a deep layer are also more conducive to deep mixing down to the surface--creating stronger winds/gusts. http://en.wikipedia....ki/Thermal_wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 This thing is just getting ridiculous in some spots--gusts to 64 MPH in Garrison, ND. KN60 112252Z AUTO 31044G56KT M07/M10 A2971 RMK AO1 PK WND 31056/2252 SLP090 P0002 T10721100 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Well this is becoming a rather common occurence it seems--more trapped lee waves downwind of the Coteau des Prairies in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 lowest visibilities i've ever been in right now, well under a 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 lowest visibilities i've ever been in right now, well under a 1/4 mile. Impressive--gusts to 53 MPH in the Forks. KGFK 120136Z 34035G46KT 1/4SM -SN BLSN BR OVC003 M01/M02 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 34046/0136 SFC VIS 1/2 PRESRR P0002 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Great looking WV representation: Surface map: Webcam from the University near the Atsci building: Brings back good memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 We just went across the street to Target and wow, at times I couldn't see past the hood of my car, and that 53 gust seems about right things are just howling out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 We just went across the street to Target and wow, at times I couldn't see past the hood of my car, and that 53 gust seems about right things are just howling out there. Gusts to 54 now for the 02Z report--may hit 60 by 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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