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ND/SD/Western MN Blizzard March 11-12, 2011


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Surprised you aren't excited for this upcoming event Cmich--a good event for ND with this incoming S/W. Pretty impressive stuff--most guidance is now closing this off past 500 hpa. A semi-arctic front in some ways--haven't had any good frontal events up that way all year. A quick-hitter, but it will be interesting while it lasts.

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Surprised you aren't excited for this upcoming event Cmich--a good event for ND with this incoming S/W. Pretty impressive stuff--most guidance is now closing this off past 500 hpa. A semi-arctic front in some ways--haven't had any good frontal events up that way all year. A quick-hitter, but it will be interesting while it lasts.

Oh i'm pumped, latest trends are pointing towards a nice event maybe 4-5 inches with blizzard conditions. Just a pretty localized event so I haven't said anything.

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Oh i'm pumped, latest trends are pointing towards a nice event maybe 4-5 inches with blizzard conditions. Just a pretty localized event so I haven't said anything.

Good low level CAA and deep tropospheric cyclogenesis from surface to 500+ hpa should support good mixing even with the stout inversion. Good gust potential. These frontal bursts are always fun events.

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NWS GFK hoists the winter storm watch--Bismarck going advisory.

Ya i think Dan is working tonight, I wanna read what he has to say in his afd, I pretty sure from here to the border friday night is gonna be a mess. hopefully it'll stop those Canadians from flooding the city on saturday, although it doesn't seem like anything can stop them from heading down here every weekend.

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00z GFS spitting out 50kt H92 winds straight down the Red River Valley. This is an ugly scenario, particularly if surface temps stay near or below freezing today. There is 4-5 inches of fresh fluff on the ground in Grand Forks. 2m temps advertised in the low to mid 30's and clouds bouncing around some March radiation should allow existing snow to get a minor seal. Will see if 40+ mph gusts break it. That kind of wind with falling snow will be bad enough. Only takes an inch or two of snow with wind to knock out a number of intersections around town.

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00z GFS spitting out 50kt H92 winds straight down the Red River Valley. This is an ugly scenario, particularly if surface temps stay near or below freezing today. There is 4-5 inches of fresh fluff on the ground in Grand Forks. 2m temps advertised in the low to mid 30's and clouds bouncing around some March radiation should allow existing snow to get a minor seal. Will see if 40+ mph gusts break it. That kind of wind with falling snow will be bad enough. Only takes an inch or two of snow with wind to knock out a number of intersections around town.

Hi I am working...I wrote the Blizzard warning.....the other short term fcstr wrote the AFD. GFS has been very consistent...still showing sfc low tracking nr hwy 2 to nr Thief/Fosston at 00z. Snow on backside of low will move in nr 00z or just a bit after and with strong winds do expect poor conditions. The NNW wind component down the valley is always a good wind for us and often winds exceed model MOS expectations esp when accompanied by a pressure rise like tonight. One thing about the snow....it is fluffy yet and yes today will get a bit abv 32F but 30-35 mph breaks it and more importantly falling snow with the wind is key as it is the deal breaker between a blizzard or not. So leaned toward yes. Out of city areas bad for sure...in town bad but always tough to get true Blizzard sometimes right in the city. But we just dont forecast for city folks...

Next question is when will melt begin down south....general thinking from local folks here is late March....snowpack is cold and will take some time to warm up and then truly start the melt.

--Dan

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Hi I am working...I wrote the Blizzard warning.....the other short term fcstr wrote the AFD. GFS has been very consistent...still showing sfc low tracking nr hwy 2 to nr Thief/Fosston at 00z. Snow on backside of low will move in nr 00z or just a bit after and with strong winds do expect poor conditions. The NNW wind component down the valley is always a good wind for us and often winds exceed model MOS expectations esp when accompanied by a pressure rise like tonight. One thing about the snow....it is fluffy yet and yes today will get a bit abv 32F but 30-35 mph breaks it and more importantly falling snow with the wind is key as it is the deal breaker between a blizzard or not. So leaned toward yes. Out of city areas bad for sure...in town bad but always tough to get true Blizzard sometimes right in the city. But we just dont forecast for city folks...

Next question is when will melt begin down south....general thinking from local folks here is late March....snowpack is cold and will take some time to warm up and then truly start the melt.

--Dan

The NAM has been horrible with this storm. The 12Z this morning was really the first to get its act together. Euro has been very good and GFS the last 2 days has been pretty good as well showing a significant wind event/blowing snow event. THe height falls with this storm in the low levels are out of this world. Should enhance mixing--the dynamic tropopause is pretty spectacular for such a compact system.

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From the ND DOT:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) in coordination with the ND Highway Patrol has closed the eastbound and westbound roadways of Interstate 94 from Bismarck to Dickinson due to reduced visibility and a number of a traffic incidents on this roadway. This portion of the Interstate will remain closed until further notice.

The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) has extended the No Travel Advisory to north central North Dakota due to areas of zero visibility from blowing and drifting snow. Motorists should be advised that areas of scattered slush on the roadway are turning into ice, and blowing and drifting snow is making travel difficult in the advisory area.

Cities in the No Travel Advisory include: Killdeer, Beulah, Garrison, Velva, Harvey, Center, Wilton, Underwood, McClusky, Minot, Mohall, Towner, Parshall, Bottineau, Crosby, Bowbells, Williston, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City, New Town and surrounding areas.

The Travel Alert has been extended to the cities of: Steele, Glen Ullin, Bismarck and surrounding areas.

A Travel Alert remains in effect for central North Dakota due to heavy rain and snow creating slush on the roadways and strong winds creating reduced visibility. Motorists are encouraged to reduce speeds as they may encounter slush on the roadway. Conditions are such that motorists can still travel, but may experience gusty winds causing areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

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These are awesome pictures for those dealing with spring on the East Coast. Winter lives on in the Northern Plains Snowman.gif

Are these sort of frontal blizzards common in the Dakotas? I know you guys get a lot of snowfall in the late season, but I thought it was more from Panhandle Hooks etc...

Depends on the year. A more typical scenario is when an arctic front pushes across the state from the northwest after it drops into the US CONUS out of Alberta. No arctic air here--this is just a very strong and compact shortwave rapidly intensifying and deepening. It is a pretty unusual looking storm for up there in terms of the height field configuration and the overall thermal setup. In many ways this is more impressive than the more typical strong arctic fronts and short duration blizzards those create. Typically those only last a few hours.

Here was a beast arctic front from 2008 that brought brief (approx 1-2 hrs) of blizzard conditions to GFK.

850 thermal advection:

post-999-0-49759400-1299884744.gif

Note the height field config and the elongated Polar Vortex. Much more cold air--and much more typical.

http://www.meteo.psu...08/us0129j3.php

Compare to this storm:

Somewhat compact and low amplitude at 12Z:

post-999-0-40941200-1299885065.png

Note the generation of vorticity and the strong height falls at 500 hpa by 03Z:

post-999-0-55639300-1299885068.png

Deep tropospheric height falls from surface to above 500 hpa is indicative of a very well developed and intense dynamic tropopause. Rapid height field changes occur as the upper level cold front links up with the low level baro zone as winds increase rapidly aloft owing to an increased horizontal thermal gradient at all levels of the atmosphere (thermal wind relationship: http://en.wikipedia....ki/Thermal_wind )

post-999-0-86858900-1299885063.png

These types of storms are special--and this is why I advocate the use of Isentropic Potential Vorticity in determining the strength and "depth" the upper level cold front may have on potential cyclogenesis. These rapid height falls through a deep layer are also more conducive to deep mixing down to the surface--creating stronger winds/gusts.

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Thermal_wind

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