ILoveWinter

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It was terribly modeled too-the night before, it was forecast to crush DCA to PHL and then turn to rain for NYC and points east.  Instead it shutout places SW of Philly they woke up to partly cloudy skies-meanwhile it was all snow for most of us here with a turn to rain in RI/eastern MA.

Winters of 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00 were awful.    Brutal stretch.   01-02 and 11-12 were bad but they were surrounded by good winters so took the bite off.

Yeah those winters really stunk! Some of those were my college years in the DC area and it was even worse there than it was here. I think there were maybe 2 "ok" events (3-5 inches max) in my 4 years there but not completely sure.

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try

It's more about your reputation and the way you framed your post: It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again.  

Would it kill you to actually say there is at least a shot next week?!

Anyway, someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this is the first real trackable period in November since 2018 with that storm that overperformed and where NYC was unprepared for snow removal.

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They should have played through the rain, that was not enough rain to cancel a baseball game lol

 

I was at that debacle last night. I was constantly monitoring the radar and while it was certainly a tricky call earlier in the evening, it was clear that by 830 the rain would last for at least another hour. It should have been called then.

Rain was very heavy overnight here in the UWS, woke me up a few timed starting at 330

21 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

ISP had the driest summer period (July 1st-August 31st) on record, even drier than the drought of the 60's. Obviously this was a shorter term drought, and if there was really anywhere that had real drought conditions, it was the south shore of LI. So yes, it was a significant drought here and the rain is needed here. Other places faired much better with the rain over the summer, and were only moderately dry. No one should ever compare a drought in the northeast to a drought out west, they are two completely different climates.

My comment was really about the entire metro but regardless, a short vs. long term drought in a specific part of our metro is not extreme. 

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's raining very hard here, we already have over 2" in this event.

This whole week is a huge downer lol.  I think people forget that for most of NYC's climate record, the average annual rainfall was around 40".  Going by the full climate history, this isn't much of a drought.  

Exactly. The number of drought comments in the past few weeks/months would lend someone to believe that it's been one of the worst of all time! Yes it's been quite noticeable in some areas (certainly on the surface) but the reservoirs never really dropped to anything considered to be a "low" level (I think 90% of normal was a number I saw a month ago?). It's certainly not even remotely close to the West. Not saying we didn't need some rain but the raininess of the past few days through to Wednesday was not THAT badly needed!

2 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Another absolute trash day.  

Yea agree, dreary, cool and wet since Saturday and lasting till Wednesday. Awful!

Too abrupt of a transition if you ask me. Rather we ease our way into the chilier weather. And yes "ilovewinter" (tho maybe I just love tracking winter storms?!) but we aren't there yet.

41 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Great.  Dreary, miserable 50 and wet.   Bring back summer

Yea sort of agree here. I'm a summer or winter weather lover, not a fan of the dreary and chilly weather we can get in between!

11 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I mean give credit where credit is due. I know this path susequently moved around after this, but this was spot on right here.

Interesting. Reminds me of many occasions where the track of a winter storm/N'or Easter predicted 5 days out ends up being the closest to being accurate (until it's only 24 hours out). 

Was at the Yankee game last night, the rain was torrential and lasted for quite a long time, pretty crazy night!

31 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You can tell from radar that banding is rapidly improving and core is tightening. Nothing to slow intensification until it hits Cuba early tomorrow. 

Obviously track is going to be critical for potential US impacts. further west is best case, as you get minimal surge into Tampa Bay and you probably have a weakening Cat 1 at best when it gets to the panhandle. 

True that a western track is better but considering that this will stall out around the Tampa latitude just makes it a slightly "less bad" outcome for them as a result of storm surge

Pouring in the UWS, not sure how in the world the NWS went with a 30% pop in their afternoon update considering how the radar looked!

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest extended forecasts maintain the comfortable June temperature pattern for us. Near record heat heads for the Great Lakes next week. But we stay cooler with more onshore flow. One of the first times in mid-June that temperatures well into the 90s near the Great Lakes didn’t progress into our area. So an unusual 500 mb and surface pattern for us. The ridge is still forecast to remain to our west even as we pass the solstice. So while we can always pick up a stray 90° at places like Newark, no major 95°+ heat like we had in late May anytime soon.

 

Can't really complain about this sort of pattern in June! Low to mid 80s is great. 

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if it were up to me the metro would be under a flash flood watch and a svr tstorm watch

Yea supposed to go to the Yankee game tonight but having second thoughts 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. 

May pattern

 

Much different pattern into mid-June

 

At least in June this sort of pattern translates into mid to sometimes upper 70s which honestly isn't THAT bad (I'd prefer low to mid 80s). I mean a month ago this would have really stunk.

Temps have fallen herein the UWS around 8-9 degrees in the past 20 minutes to around 81. Not quite as rapid as 1 mile to my east in the UES where once the front passed an hour or so ago they pretty quickly dropped to the low 70s. Crazy variation! Maybe the tall buildings in between impeded the flow?

3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Insane 

I am pretty close to that 91 in the UWS/Lincoln Square. I can confirm the front just passed a few minutes ago, def getting noticeable cooler

Sitting out on my balcony here in the UWS and def still hot, not sure when this thing will come but it does look like it has already gone thru parts of northern and western Queens 

Still scorching at 88 here in the UWS

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it will probably slow down on that side until it advances as a unified feature later this evening 

Interesting, will be cool to see how this plays out

2 minutes ago, Shades said:

At this rate the western parts of NYC may get it before western LI! Didn't even know this to be a possibility!

29 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Boston went down for the count early in the bout:

Past 12 Hours Observations for BOS

MOST RECENT DATA:  5pm edt   31-MAY-22
BOSTON/LOGAN INTL ARPT, MA (   20')                  LAT=42.37N LON= 71.03W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
BOS  6am 76 62 61 240  5    119 2988        85 SCT 170 BKN 250 OVC    10
     7am 78 62 57 290  6    121 2989        90 SCT 150 BKN 250 OVC    10
     8am 81 62 52 290 10    124 2990               150 SCT 250 BKN    10
     9am 63 54 72 060 22 29 136 2993               140 SCT 250 SCT    10
    0854 62 53 72 060 22 29 136 2993               140 SCT 250 SCT    10
    10am 62 50 64 050 15 24 151 2998               140 SCT 250 SCT    10
    11am 61 51 69 060 16 24 160 3000                35 SCT 250 SCT    10
    12pm 60 51 72 070 14    164 3002        35 SCT 160 SCT 250 BKN    10
     1pm 60 51 72 070 14    165 3002        35 SCT 180 SCT 250 BKN    10
     2pm 60 50 69 080 16    165 3002        35 SCT 250 SCT 320eSCT    10
     3pm 60 49 66 080 13    163 3002                35 SCT 250 SCT    10
     4pm 60 51 72 080 12    160 3000        31 SCT 200 SCT 340eSCT    10
     5pm 58 51 77 090  9    160 3001        19 SCT  33 SCT 200 BKN    10
BOS   12 temps: high=  81 at  8am low=  58 at  5pm mean=  64.9   precip=  0.00

You should post the minute by minute obs between 8AM and 9AM when the temp dropped 20 degrees or so in 10 minutes!

BDCF just about to push through Sag Harbor and Southold. Easily visible on the OKX radar. Interesting shape too - sort of a backward "S" shape as it curves north-westward over the Sound into CT and then north-eastward from the CT coast to the interior and then curves northwestward again.

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not likely. Models are pretty insistent that it makes it to NYC by 6pm or so. It’ll probably start through LI by mid afternoon. 

Ok thanks, 6PM makes more sense, thought it was 8.