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ILoveWinter

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Posts posted by ILoveWinter

  1. 9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

    NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome.

    True but I think a component of our average is due to above average winters where we get a KU (or two in some cases). Without those, we get these nickel and dime events such as this past Sunday / Monday's event.

  2. 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

    it wasn’t a bust at all

     

    Just a bunch of guys talking themselves into a frenzy on a 1-3 inch snowstorm

    this was a perfectly modeled, perfectly forecasted, 1 to 3 inch snowstorm.

    And as myself and several other posters tried to say yesterday, if you set your expectations for a light snowfall you were going to be happy. And if you set your expectations on a fabricated 6 inch snowfall, you weren’t going to be happy.

    It was sort of a bust for many in the sense that most of the models kept on bumping totals up even up to game time. Not an epic bust or anything.

    • Like 2
  3. 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed. 

    Isn't it dropping into the lower 20s and may not break freezing in the city tomorrow?

  4. 17 minutes ago, WIN said:

    It's funny how perspectives have changed over the last 20 years or so. In the 80s and most of the 90s, 4 to 8 was considered a heavy snowstorm.

    4-8 in the immediate NYC metro would be amazing considering the garbage we've experience in the past few years but yes in the wider context I agree.

    • Like 1
  5. 16 minutes ago, jr461 said:

    Many had been saying (but seemed to have stopped) that until this weekend's cutter goes through the models wouldn't really have a credible grasp on how things may play out.  Is this still the case? 

    I'm no expert but I wouldn't say the models are not credible now, only that both the passage of time and tonights storm will of course make things clearer. 

  6. 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

    word has it the EPS still has it

    Yea we really should only be looking at ensemble means at this early juncture. No use getting overly excited or upset over Ops runs 5-6 days out, especially as we wait for the friday night storm to clear out before we get a better picture of the finer details. 

    • Like 1
  7. 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

    need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !

    How did EPS look? Prob better to look at ensembles vs any op run at this juncture

  8. 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

    The record is kind of a joke anyway since LGA and JFK both have had 1.0 in that time frame, and so has the Park, they just haven't recorded it, the 0.9 the perfect example.

    I'm sure whoever is not doing their job measuring today and tomorrow at the Park will insure the record stays intact. It's a 150+ year track record of ineptness that they wear proudly.

    Agreed and as I've posted before, I live near the Park and recorded around 1.5 in multiple locations during one of the storms last year.  Issue was that it didn't last long so they may have missed it.

    • Like 1
  9. 42 minutes ago, lee59 said:

    This is kind of a ridiculous stat for NYC. I believe the streak at Kennedy, La Gaurdia and Newark is about half Central Park. They should use the 2 inch and under which is more realistic. Apparently about the only place in  the NY metro area that didn't get an inch of snow was Central Park.

    And it's wrong, I live near the Park and I measured 1.5-1.75 (multiple locations) during one of the storms last year.

    • Like 1
  10. 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

    Most models have BL temps in mid 30's in NYC metro and Long Island. It's going to be difficult to get significant accums in those areas. Those 10:1 maps are bogus. 

    Agree. After experiencing many winters in the City, BL temps just don't cut it here - unless there are strong dynamics / rates.

    • Like 2
  11. Good trends today - especially for those north and west but within the City itself, borderline temps will not cut it for anything but wet roads and some slushy accumulation on grass. Hopefully the trend continues. 

    Taking this NAM run with a grain of salt though it's definitely pretty to look at!

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