ILoveWinter

Light to moderate snow in the UWS

Moderate snow in the UWS but mostly wet and not white on surfaces

Flurries in the UWS

I'm still waiting for the inevitable "storm looks to be forming further east / colder than modeled!" posts lol

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The record is kind of a joke anyway since LGA and JFK both have had 1.0 in that time frame, and so has the Park, they just haven't recorded it, the 0.9 the perfect example.

I'm sure whoever is not doing their job measuring today and tomorrow at the Park will insure the record stays intact. It's a 150+ year track record of ineptness that they wear proudly.

Agreed and as I've posted before, I live near the Park and recorded around 1.5 in multiple locations during one of the storms last year.  Issue was that it didn't last long so they may have missed it.

Clearly things not looking good for the immediate Metro though I still hold out the possibility of a strong hour or two front end thump that could lead to an inch or so at the Park. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has been deadly accurate with that storm so far from 7-8 days out 

Of course, it's a rain event lol  

42 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is kind of a ridiculous stat for NYC. I believe the streak at Kennedy, La Gaurdia and Newark is about half Central Park. They should use the 2 inch and under which is more realistic. Apparently about the only place in  the NY metro area that didn't get an inch of snow was Central Park.

And it's wrong, I live near the Park and I measured 1.5-1.75 (multiple locations) during one of the storms last year.

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Most models have BL temps in mid 30's in NYC metro and Long Island. It's going to be difficult to get significant accums in those areas. Those 10:1 maps are bogus. 

Agree. After experiencing many winters in the City, BL temps just don't cut it here - unless there are strong dynamics / rates.

Good trends today - especially for those north and west but within the City itself, borderline temps will not cut it for anything but wet roads and some slushy accumulation on grass. Hopefully the trend continues. 

Taking this NAM run with a grain of salt though it's definitely pretty to look at!

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

um RGEM hardly shows much at the coast? you gotta be NW of white plains, etc for anything over 3”

I was referring to this (yes ratios too high but this is not terrible for the immediate metro)

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

This is hilarious and without any support. Also be careful with 10:1 as many have stated before, looking closer to 5/6:1 along coast and other marginal areas. 

RGEM wasn't terrible for the coast but yes needs more support to be believable. Hopefully the Euro shows some improvement in less than an hour though it's prob a long shot. 

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's January , not March with the sun angle .

Gfs wouldn't work here anyway but Euro would for a few inches.

Also, won't this be mostly an overnight event? This certainly would help to accumulate a few inches within the city. 

Currently in Cancun and heading back tomorrow, nice surprise to see there is finally something to track! (it's been a few years maybe for me living in the city?). Would be great to see 3 or more inches.

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

I can think we can mostly expect 40s rain from now through April with some sunny breaks into the 50s in between.  I have zero expectations for winter weather.  If it comes, I will say wow.  

Yea this is my approach now, better for my snow loving sanity 

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mjo still moving along nicely 

Pattern change is moving up

( I'm going to get weenied again by snowman19)

lol, you were weenied for posting your temp! 

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Christmas should be on the milder side but nothing too extreme compared to some recent years. The ensemble blend has mid 40s which is around a +3 to +4 in NYC. Highs could approach upper 40s to near 50° with a more defined low to our west which can be smoothed out by these ensemble means. 
 

Certainly frustrating that highs near 50 around Christmas needs to be qualified with a statement that it's "nothing too extreme compared to some recent years"!

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

delayed? the brunt of it isn’t coming till 4-5pm tonight.

rain probably moves in between 11am-1pm

looking at the radar, nothing substantial until at least early afternoon

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

terrible weather today, over a half inch so far

It wouldn't be right if it didn't rain during the weekend. Another day with outdoor plans ruined, oh well.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Meh not a big deal

It is for my kids!

Another weekend ruined, just awful.

Hopefully all of these storms with the metro in or near the jackpot zones bodes well for the winter!

49 minutes ago, doncat said:

FV3 fwiw...

Seems like the outer most extent of Lee's cloud deck has made to roughly around JFK up though eastern westchester / HPN. Wonder if it pushes any further west from there?

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

59 right now

I'm outside wear shorts while people are wearing long pants and coats.

It was chilly! Granted in March or early April this would feel quite warm but most people aren't used to it just yet.

Quite the downpour on the UWS, finally letting up a bit. I think this is the 4th or 5th day in a row with NYC area airports holding departures and arrivals which is once again causing significant downstream delays.