ILoveWinter

Still raining in the UWS, 37

Should we expect advisories for a portion of the region today? I'd assume so considering a 2-4ish type of event...

Still snowing in the UWS. Surprised as would have expected a changeover sooner considering the rain reports from Brooklyn Heights. Prob give it another 20 - 30 or so.

Still hanging on here with all snow in the UWS

Still coming down nicely in the UWS, enjoying it while it lasts!

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

 

The GEFS went west but still better than OP

Some sort of convergence between Op and ensembles is expected sooner or later as we approach showtime 

Typically with this sort of lead time, we tend to focus on the ensembles. Is there a reason we are more trusting of the Op runs this time around? Is it due to their consistency with showing the interior/inland track?

Is it just a coincidence that many of the various Model Operational runs were amped/coastal huggers vs. their ensemble spread?

Northern extent of radar returns hitting that brick wall just north of Philly eastward to Brick.

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

that 3" in 1 hour must be anew record and puts NYC well over 4.3" now for the storm. 

Wasn't the old record for 1 hour set only a few weeks ago?!

Just now, CCHurricane said:

This has been shared previously, but for the most part the “land” that the storm has been over is more so swamp, which will have been largely covered by storm surge, rather than land that would weaken the storm’s structural dynamics.

A satellite image was shared a few pages back that did a great job illustrating this. 

Interesting, makes sense.  Thanks.

Can someone explain how a hurricane can avoid weakening (or only weaken slightly) while over land? 

38 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

None of the models had the rain coming into nyc like this even today 

Really? That was true for last night's event but they pretty much forecasted a washout for today

Impressively hazy today! Reminds me of my time in Qatar with those crazy sandstorms

39 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida during my life and the biggest difference is they still actually see sunshine on days when it rains. I feel like we are more tropical rain forest like with rain every few hours and constant clouds. Lately once it starts to rain it just doesn’t let up. So far this has not been an enjoyable summer for seasonal businesses, pools, golf courses, etc. 

Completely agree, its been cloudy fairly persistently with occasional breaks. I'd typically expect a few sunny days in a row in the summer before a system or t storms threaten.  

I like to experience summer time T storms as much as the rest of us but it's been relentless in the past week (here in Manhattan anyway) and looks to repeat this coming week. A few mostly sunny days without the need to worry about an afternoon or evening soaker would be nice!

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were talking about 100° and snow a few days apart in the Rockies last September. This type of extreme wavelength behavior is becoming more common. So it makes past analogs less effective in our newer climate. This was the warmest June temperature at Bismarck since 6-27-88 when they reached 107°. Newark reached 101° during that record heat at Bismarck. This coming warm up is following a much wetter pattern than June 1988 when Newark only had around 1.00” total for the month. The Euro has Newark toping out in the low 90s next several days before we get backdoored again on Thursday. So a continuation of the up and down pattern for us.

Climatological Data for Bismarck Area, ND 

1988-06-21

105

73

1988-06-27

107

70

 

2021-06-04

106

57

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - June 1988

 

1988-06-22

101

74

87.5

At least being backdoored in June means comfortable temps and a respite to the 90s heat!

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

At least Monday looks half decent!

Yea was us going to ask if Monday is salvageable? I know those QPF printouts are as of Monday but hoping not much falls then.

25 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

yesterday was the most uncomfortable summer type day we have had so far in the city  this year.. very high dew point..hope i wont see a day like that anytime soon.. looking forward to 60;s friday saturday and probably suinday...

Upper 50s/lower 60s for highs and rainy/showery all Memorial weekend...I'd take sunny and hot over that in a heartbeat

Frustratingly cloudy day so far in the NYC metro. Seems like a streamer of clouds originating in north central PA that has been making a bee line to this area.

We had a top 7 or 8 (?) February in NYC so while not receiving any more snow is a slight disappointment, I'd choose this sort of winter over the past several (even with the numerous March snow events within them) in a heartbeat.

Nearly moderate in UWS, no rain

Boom! went from a stray flurry to steady light snow in 2 minutes here in the UWS

Seems like it is near Philly on this radar:  https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

SN+ reported at CPK in latest update