ILoveWinter
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Everything posted by ILoveWinter
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Ah that's frustrating! Happened to me several years ago on a family vacation to Cancun. While sitting by the pool, I was scrolling through this forum and was secretly annoyed that I was missing out on snow (I think CPK received around 10 inches). As for this one, I was originally supposed to fly out on a business trip this weekend but a few months ago I pushed it to next weekend, pheww!
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Still a pretty big spread less than 24 hours from game time! Crazy.
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Now THAT was the NAM run I was waiting for! I know it may be overdone being the NAM but wow oh wow
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Yes, shows around 12-13 for NYC.
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I'd like to see the 12z Euro come west some but agree that we are getting closer to the meso's wheelhouse.
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Crazy to still have fairly large differences in QPF/snow forecasts 24 hours till game time!
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Yea it’s odd especially considering the NWS forecast is for 13-18 around the City proper.
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Manhattan
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Sorry for posting such a question but struggling to make a decision: currently in the Berkshires, ok to head back (3 hour drive) tomorrow morning at around 9? It does appear the heavier stuff arrives in the early afternoon but not certain.
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Drop the extreme outliers on both ends (GFS and Euro) and we still have a great storm on the way with a floor of around a foot for the immediate metro.
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Euro AI did drop qpf a bit. Per NE forum it seems to be average of 18z and 12z. CPK went from 1.3 to 1.1 so nothing too drastic.
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I am showing and teaching my daughter about weather models (essentially indoctrinating her into this hobby of mine) and she's really excited for this one (and the likely snow/remote day)!
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I mean basically every recent model suite is showing a minimum of 10”
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As things look now, late afternoon is when things really get going so your flight is at risk for a cancelation.
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Oh there have been far crazier ones in the not too distant past
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I think the map 24 hours out was even more bullish
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I mean a lot of good Mets didn’t think this was happening even 24 hours ago
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Yea I’d guess the GFS is a bit overdone but that being said, seems like the immediate metro is in line for at least a SECS and that’s pretty awesome to me.
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Man, things looking positive for something decent. I’m in the Berkshires right now (snowing quite hard right now btw) and considering heading home earlier on Sunday.
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IF the snowiest - à la GFS - solutions verify, it would almost be akin to Boxing Day 2010 when all hope was lost a few days beforehand.
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Had put my phone down at 6 and when I picked it up to check on this storm, I saw several additional pages of posts so I knew something was up! Definitely didn’t expect that sort of shift from the typically steady Euro AI.
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The Euro is a fantastic model but it’s not infallible and has been on an island / wrong before.
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True, maybe we should look at any Norwegian forecast models?
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It's certainly possible we may not get much of anything out of this one but chances for something is at least better than 24 hours ago.
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Dude stop. We don't expect something big and most of us would be perfectly happy with a few inches considering where we were just 24 hours ago. You even just the other day posted the results of every single model run being a "miss" in the other thread, that's clearly not the case right now - maybe acknowledge that before finding yet another way to highlight what's working against us.
