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ILoveWinter

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Everything posted by ILoveWinter

  1. ILoveWinter
    I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks
  2. ILoveWinter
    Yea what is with that snow hole over nyc?! Unreal that it hasn’t moved in pretty much of all the UKIE runs. Anyone have an explanation for what is causing that?
  3. ILoveWinter
    I mean yea it's possible it shifts SE but just because it's cold doesn't mean we can't get sleet and your location will likely see this per nearly every model. The big question is timing and how hard the front end thump is.
  4. ILoveWinter
    Most people don't follow the models as closely as us weenies and probably don't know that CPK tends to under measure snow! Seems like a nice arbitrage opportunity here lol.
  5. ILoveWinter
    Exactly. Even an hour delay in a changeover could mean 2” extra.
  6. ILoveWinter
    Primary could end up being a bit weaker which may prevent the changeover for an hour or two. This could add a few or even several inches to the totals.
  7. ILoveWinter
    Queue the "it's still snowing in Nashville and it was supposed to changeover to sleet already so that's a good sign for us" posts lol
  8. ILoveWinter
    SWFEs aren't always great for the immediate metro as we typically do change over to sleet/zr at some point. However there have been several of them where it didn't matter due to the strong front end thump. Considering this is a stronger than normal SWFE, it's certainly possible we get insane rates early on.
  9. ILoveWinter
    Is the primary simply stronger with the NAM?
  10. ILoveWinter
    Seems like we are narrowing in on around 8-10 inches for CPK. I'd be happy with that, especially since it will have staying power for all of next week which is highly unusual
  11. ILoveWinter
    I’ve seen enough: 8-12 for Central Park
  12. ILoveWinter
    Agree as there’s a ton of moisture incoming and it’s possible we get a big enough thump where the changeover won’t matter as much. Anyway, regardless of any sleet it seems like a floor is around 6-8 at this time for the city and I’d honestly be ok with that considering the awful winters we’ve had here.
  13. ILoveWinter
    Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area).
  14. ILoveWinter
    The NAM is not infallible when it comes to being the most aggressive with warm noses but agree that it could verify. I do wonder why in this instance it is the most aggressive - is it because it tracks the primary further north vs the other models? Does it show a stronger primary?
  15. ILoveWinter
    Interesting to see what the EPS mean shows
  16. ILoveWinter
    Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage.
  17. ILoveWinter
    At this lead time, we really only should be looking at the ensemble mean - and the trends within them - anyway
  18. ILoveWinter
    Even more so than this weekend’s storm?
  19. ILoveWinter
    Something that not many have mentioned is that if it does snow, it will last for quite some time as it looks cold for much of next week too. That’s another rarity as it often seems like we warm up right after big storms (with some notable exceptions).
  20. ILoveWinter
    Yea this is what you want to see, Op runs don’t have as much meaning this early on.
  21. ILoveWinter
    Yep I measured around 2 right near the park
  22. ILoveWinter
    Doubt it, it didn’t start accumulating until a few hours in. I’d say coating to 0.5 at most but I’m just eyeballing from my apartment.
  23. ILoveWinter
    What happened to him? I am not a prolific poster but have been around for a while and always enjoyed his posts.
  24. ILoveWinter
    Nice to be pleasantly surprised here in Manhattan for a change. I expected some snow in the air but considering it was in the mid to upper 30s earlier today, wasn’t expecting it to stick even on major roads.
  25. ILoveWinter
    Even broadway in the UWS is covered, certainly wasn’t expecting that
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