RyanDe680

I am eager for this to be over, to see what we've learned from this.

LOT update: .UPDATE... 1038 AM CST In summary, no significant changes to the message for this event this morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoon snow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commute impacts to I-90 and north. Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but will briefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time and evolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid- level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly moving due east, a little further north than guidance indicated last night. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradual phasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The active baroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region into southwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in with snow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northern progress. Extrapolating its current development would bring it into the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northern CWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High- resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a period mid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow, but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulation for appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north. As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening, snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gen signatures become somewhat transient, but there remains indications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broad northern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfall forecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridor have been lowered just slightly because of the aforementioned mid-late afternoon expectations. While could justify backing up the start time of some of the warning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northern parts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly still get into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is.

No one has really talked ratios. I would think that based on temps, moisture, etc., 10 to 1 seems good?

I think I'll trust the Euro on this one.

LOL. 1,200 replies, storm still almost 24 hours out and is trending the wrong way. What a winter.

Euro seems to nail the winter storms, compared to the GFS that is.

LOT As indicated above, just getting a quick look at the new 00Z NAM guidance. Fairly similar to previous runs, and continues to highlight areas along/north of the I-88 corridor across far northern IL for the greatest snowfall potential with similar timing going into Friday night. Perhaps a slight (half county) shift southward with the main frontogentically-forced QPF axis Friday evening, though basically little change to current forecast. In collaboration with surrounding offices have made no changes to going headlines at this time. Midnight shift will have full suite of 00Z guidance available for possible upgrades.

That's IMBY (Hillsdale holla) Sharp cut off in lower Cook County.

I’m gonna side in the over performer camp. Things seem to becoming together. Check out the soundings around FGEN time.

Storm is good, hopefully this pans out. I'm more interested in the LES. It's seldom that the west side of Lake MI receives a decent LE amount, and I hope this pans out even more.

Thats a great NAM run. Interested to see what changes, if any, by EOD day with sampling.

The big question should be who else comes to the NAMs agreement. Even with this new run there’s still the outliers

Yeah I agree. I am stressed out after reading these 25 pages for the last 3 days.

I like the UKI's LE near the Chicago metro.

That looks like a soaker.

Yep, nothing else is gonna get better any time soon!

as if the state isn't in bad enough shape, that'd get people to reconsider staying.

Ha, I just went out further on the Euro and saw this for next Tues, Wed timeframe. Liking the active pattern.

Ther euro seems to have continued the trend of making this significant. Going out on a limb saying that plays out and shifts north. If the system digs SW and moves NE or ENE and negatively tilts, all bets are off then when it comes to amounts I dread the bitter cold to follow.

I won’t look for a concensus until Wednesday at least. Too much disappointment in the past this early out. Favorable that things are picking up. This will make for good maps though.

Latest GFS still has the track but came in w/ less precip

NAM = 0.5 Euro = 0.5 GFS = 0 the GFS just needs to be replaced already. When it comes to winter, it’s just not on the mark.

Snowing here in Western Springs (294 and 88). So much for that DAB call - seems I have that already

This goes along with what buckeye said earlier... trend shift hopefully.