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RyanDe680

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Posts posted by RyanDe680

  1. On 4/13/2022 at 11:12 AM, Hoosier said:

    Not true... there are exceptions.  Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat.

    problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery.  we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow.  Hopefully, that changes.

  2. 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

    18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z Thursday

    This is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing.

    My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch.

    Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. 







     

    oh-snap-parks-and-rec.gif

     

    But seriously, stellar info - thank you for the perspective Ricky.

     

    When is your shift?

    • Like 1
  3. 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

    Yikes. I think we can see why so much volatility in the model solutions today, and prob more on the way. Gonna be a long 48 hrs lol.

    I’m telling ya….  Just wait until 24 hours out.  Saves you the stress

    • Haha 1
  4. 28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

    Would hope that we have the overrunning portion sorted out by tomorrow at some point, and the main storm on Monday hopefully.

    Yeah the back and forth is stressful over the years.  Simple track one way or the other more than two days out makes one crabby. 

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