RyanDe680

Nobody should be punting this far out lmao 

dead event for N / NE IL

where's the front vs. where it was forecasted?

21 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Tor watch just issued till 0100Z.  Storms starting to form now around Peoria and Lincoln areas moving n/ne.  Will they break the cap?

Low CIN - shouldn't take much if sun persists...  shear is meh

Hopefully trend from morning rain an no recovery is broken.  Looks good so far.

On 4/13/2022 at 11:12 AM, Hoosier said:

Not true... there are exceptions.  Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat.

problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery.  we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow.  Hopefully, that changes.

Morning stuff like this always kills the afternoon potential.

Headed southeast

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Did not expect it to be this chilly here at this time.  Possible that the lake is helping to reinforce a farther south frontal position or things are just a little farther southeast in general.

Fixed to accommodate 2022

Been +SN here for the last hour

I88/I294 exchange

^lol

4 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

00z HRRR, on a for-what-it's-worth (read as: weenie) basis

Ready2bburied

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

wet and warm ground, gonna munch the first 10".

But you have to measure the compactness 

18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z Thursday

This is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing.

My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch.

Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. 







 

But seriously, stellar info - thank you for the perspective Ricky.

When is your shift?

23 minutes ago, mimillman said:

We are certainly over performing on temps here. 45 downtown 

didn't you used to be in Libertyville?

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Guys, calm down. The 15z RAP is running!

…Hey, get back here, straws! 

Sez ready2bburied

23 minutes ago, Baum said:

gorgeous morning out here. Hard to believe that we are on the cusp of a decent winter event

You can actually walk outside without a coat

looks sloppy

on that NAM run parts of Lake and nearly all of McHenry County get goose egged.

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

I never really pay attention to the NAM unless it's the 18Z run. All in all, sounds fairly bland.

Why 18?

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yikes. I think we can see why so much volatility in the model solutions today, and prob more on the way. Gonna be a long 48 hrs lol.

I’m telling ya….  Just wait until 24 hours out.  Saves you the stress

Sounds like wagon north