NorthArlington101

Can’t root for NC State since UVA should’ve put them away in the ACC tourney… rooting for the most boring outcome (UConn)

and, if the CMC is right, PSU will have 6” of snow by the end of the week

Tomer updated his site and changed his algorithm, especially for GEFS since it sucks at cloud cover.

Some T&L. Didn’t realize it til I saw the flash off my balcony.

EPS from 00z and GEFS from 06z.  Nice job by Pivotal of putting the eclipse path on their maps.
 

The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically.  There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th.  A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it.  Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path.  Hopefully it speeds up or slows down.

10 days out and I’m starting to get worried for Texas…

god bless the AIs

Starting to notice the smell of smoke and a slight "oranging" of the sun from the fires that have developed this afternoon in the mountains.

We really do wind well around here recently 

We were planning on leaving the morning before (April 7) but even that seems sketchy at this point.

I'm getting really concerned about the projected number of people going into OH and PA. It's a 6 hour drive for us even without traffic. Not sure what we're gonna do if we wake up the morning of the 7th and see it estimating the drive to be like 14 hours, so I'm working on a backup plan lol
There's like almost zero flights available now into CLE or anywhere in the path.

Just now, stormtracker said:

How we lookin?

My WxBell subscription ran out today. Liberating

final totals pulled out of my sig - might've missed some flurries 2 nights ago but who cares about the T anyway

D.C. (Union Station) Snow Total                                                N Arlington Snow Total                                                   

Total: 7.85" + 5T                                                                                          10.5" + 5T

My hope with driving is that if I leave at midnight, drive with a partner who can drive back at like 10pm and trade sleeping hours, and just fully commit to a lost day, the driving will be OK. Avoiding daylight hours. Maybe optimistic still lol.

Plan is still to drive somewhere to the middle of nowhere in Ohio or PA the night before and try and find a spot to hang out. We'll see - am concerned about traffic and weather, but worth a try.

18z aifs is def snow. May not stick but it’s snow lol

Extended range models show a rug late March. I think I'll go stand on it, seems stable

1 minute ago, katabatic said:

According to NWS I’m in the 100+ inch zone at Donner. There is 3 extra bedrooms at this place…anybody wanna come and help me shovel lol 

I'm sure they are good at what they do up there but all I can imagine is getting stuck there... it being Donner Pass doesn't help with my concerns lol

LR thread is going well

spring break before Easter is dumb
 
 

Couple flakes mixed with the rain.

About half the 12z GEFS members have rain changing to snow for the Thursday event.

Weak signal on the GEPS, but more for Friday- maybe a trailing wave. Not much of an indication for anything frozen on the EPS outside of the western highlands.
Someone should start a thread 

Had this discussion with someone who knows way more than I do. There are some factors that make sense. One is cost. We were willing to spend an exuberant amount in the 60s due to the politics of it. Not so much now. The other factor is we were willing to push the envelope and take risks with human life to get there first then we rightfully are not now.  What was an acceptable risk to life then is not now.  Yes we’ve come a long way but the truth is we accomplished that a little ahead of the curve.  There was a high risk we could have got those astronauts killed that we aren’t willing take take now.  And trying to do it more economically also adds to that challenge. It’s not that we can’t do it. It’s can we do it cheaper and safer that’s the issue. 

pretty amazing this fairly small company just landed a spacecraft on the moon.