poolz1

384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so.

The trend this season has been for models to slow down progression of systems....Have not seen a storm track like the euro has yet this cold season (that I can remember). Weenie optimism

Man...so close to a big hit...

@frd Dont get me wrong...I dont claim to fully grasp some of these things....so, I am happy to be corrected when I spout off something about the SOI...strat or really anything other than longwave patterns! lol Still learning daily but it's what keeps me hooked on this odd hobby. IMO, I think the IO convection is calming down but this sneaky storm forecasted would crash pressures in Darwin and you can see the higher pressures out near Tahiti....thus increasing the easterlies. Who knows tho.....We all know what a forecasted 7+ day hurricane track is like around here. Usually not on the money...

It's an op run so take it FWIW....

Thought this was an interesting graphic....Shows the lag on effects from the SOI.

Nice to have you back after your 3 day bender I agree....that -20 today is a game changer imo. Would be nice to see some -30s show up in the next few days but beggars cant be choosers i guess. Hopefully the euro is wrong with the TC that is forecasted to craw through N Australia and creep right through Darwin. That would send a spike in the SOI by D7 or so.

Exactly what the weeklies show....a snap to winter and every panel after this stays cold.

Well...IF week 3 is correct on the weeklies it produces that pattern either in the COD or in a week warm phase. Cant remember who mentioned the idea earlier (tongue in cheek) that our best pattern would be when the MJO heads back into the warm phases.

What other guidance? The GEPS?

Thanks...much appreciated. I'll just take this as the GEFS is always right when it comes to the strat effects! lol

I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event? Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb? I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try....

Looks the same as 0Z. Differences are negligible....So, it's tied for the worst run of the year.

@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee. Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?). Reversal all the way down.... Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward. Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern. It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.

FV3 looking a little chilly...

When I saw this panel.....it doesnt look as warm as the gefs are depicting. Also, not a bad pressure panel for prime climo.

Well, at least you can say that the GEFS agree with its own MJO forecast. Pretty spot on phase 7 look. New euro gets the MJO deeper into 8 but heads for the COD pretty quick thereafter. ETA: None of the MJO phases that the euro goes through produce an upper ridge N of HI. The euro does spend a lot of time in the COD so that muddies it a bit...Harder to tell if it agrees with its own MJO forecast.

SOI at -7.30 today. Two neg days in a row!

Agreed. We're not gonna take it.....unless we get -EPO/NAO/AO

Good post. Basically, I have the same thoughts....I completely understand the wavering and I wanted an epic wall to wall winter just as much as the next guy/gal. Doesnt mean we wont have an epic period tho....and that is where we are now. We cant bring back the last 4 weeks and the next 10 days are certainly craptastic-ish. But there is nothing that has really changed in respect to the LR drivers....except being moved further back in time. Is what it is... It still appears that things will line up but I am hesitant to believe anything until I see it within 7 days....

I would argue that the GEPS moved toward the GEFS in the LR and is a better run than the 0z .....much closer to the GEFS than the EPS. Maybe I'm looking at things wrong? It's handling of the ridge north of HI is almost identical to the GEFS and opposite the EPS. Several other improvements as well. Seems like the gap widened between the EPS and GEFS today...Something has to give in the next 24 hours....we should at least have a hint as to which model has the best idea.

The biggest difference I see is the handling of the upper ridge north of HI. EPS keeps it on roids....shoves our Aleutian low around and keeps the PAC jet enhanced. GEFS handle this feature differently whereas it weakens/get absorbed into the building EPO ridge. I am curious if this all has to do with the MJO forecast? I dont know enough to speculate but I would think a ridge like that seen on the EPS would be the result of some sort of trop forcing.

Jesus....it's a field day for the debs. Like vultures circling. Rightfully so but it truly makes this thread unfriggin-readable. Time to take a few days off.....

EPS is blah imo....Ridge in Japan....Mitch would disapprove

Euro actually gets into phase 8....albeit weak. Too quick, imo because it kills the wave taking a shortcut through the COD....curious to see if the 12z eps picks up on a phase 8ish pattern toward the end of the run...