Even the 3k NAM is south of the 12k. While it looks like a miss to the south, I wouldn't 100% completely write it off just yet. I remember the morning of the June 2020 MCS (which took out about 1/2 dozen trees on my property), radar show that massive blob of storms heading our way from Erie, and none of the models even initialized with it! Anyway...
84F/DP 73F...humid