JTA66

Should have made the toss on 1/23 like I originally planned to. I ain’t sticking it out to 2/1. Here goes…

We suck at this winter thing. Too bad most of us don’t enjoy high dew points and excessive heat warnings—that’s our wheelhouse.

And Dr. No comes north and changes us to rain. Glad that's settled.

Has the ICON ever scored a coup?? It's all we got at 12z so far. I'm not big dog hunting, just want a 1-3"/2-4" to cover the grass and isn't washed away by rain in two hours time. Is that asking too much??

Which is why I'm not convinced a Nino next winter will help. Seem a Nino got us into this mess. Besides, we need changes in the Atlantic as well (regardless of ENSO).

18z GFS says Roger Smith storm needs more sunspots!

If there’s a path to failure, we’ll find it.

12z GFS suppressed, but have we seen any digital blue modelled to our south this year?? I'll go with seasonal persistence and say the SER will trend stronger as we move up in time. I think we want the suppressed look for now.

My life as a Flyers fan. You forgot to add bad, veteran contracts that are untradeable, up against the cap so free agency isn't an option and you win just enough games to not suck enough to draft in the top 5...yeah, winter 2022-23.

Maxed out at 51F last night, currently 42F. 1.4" for an event total with a T of snow. Sump pumps kicked in overnight.

2nd cartopper of the week, Jan rocks! Roads wet, slight coating in the flower beds. 33F/DP 31F

Had a quick burst of IP, now some flurries are coming down.

Someone smarter than me (which is 99.9% of this board) can give you a better answer, but here's my uneducated understanding. In order for CAD, we need a cold high anchored to our north (say Quebec) drilling low-level cold air down the east side of the Apps. So when WAA attacks from the south/southwest, it "rides up and over" the cold dome of air. But we haven't had any cold highs anchored to our north this year because we haven't had a 50/50 low or -NAO to lock it in place -- probably because of the uber SER/WAR. Lows coming from the south quickly erode any cold air at the surface and whatever high that exists to our north scoots out to sea. Virga here, 36F/DP28F

I was outside a little earlier and thought the same thing -- "smells like snow". Unfortunately, we know otherwise. 35F/DP 26F

Nothing but a parade of rainers and cutters on today's GFS. Although if it has any skill at 330 hours , maybe a little something at range. Yesterday was my deadline for throwing in the towel. It didn't feel right to do so while it was snowing. But the winter IS a ratter, no doubt. I'll hold onto the towel until Feb 1 to see if anything is still on the table for the first week of the month. For now, I'm going to enjoy a sunny day for a change.

This! As I recall, it was also a factor in keeping the MJO in the crap phases. So yes, it's a reasonable possibility that a Nino next year won't necessarily change our luck.

Looks like I'm back to all rain here...sigh. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. 36F

Interesting winter in that our two "snow events" have been rain changing to snow. Usually cold chasing precip doesn't work around here. Don't know if it means anything going forward.

And I can now report it's officially a cartopper!

Rippin' fatties here, 38F.

Is it me or does Nick Sirianni look like the kid from Elf in that ski cap?

You ain’t kidding. Just came back from Target and landscapers were out there putting mulch down. Never seen that before in Jan either.

Jet extension floods us with PAC puke. Jet retraction pops the SER. So what are we rooting for??? It snows here, I know it does, I’ve seen it.

Made a trip to the gas station this evening. There was a guy there filling up a 2-gallon can. I was tempted to ask if it was for the snowblower or lawn mower.

I meant getting a clue that it’s another rainer. I guess the good news is it isn’t a cutter…baby steps!