aggiegeog
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Everything posted by aggiegeog
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12Z GFS starting to look pretty solid as to what I expect though it still is not as cold at the surface as I believe it will be. Looks like big front on Tuesday brings showers and storms, maybe more than an inch of rain for some in E TX. Behind the storms the coldest air of the season will move in. The most interesting part of the forecast is if there is energy left behind to our west, if so parts of Texas (especially W TX) will see some snow on Wed. Then we will watch to see if a surface storm can develop along the front, if it develops far enough west ie off the Texas coast then more of E and SE Texas could see a snow threat. This could be the first E Coast winter storm of the year. Additional cold shots should follow in pretty quick succession so no major warmups expected for mid month. Lots of ifs in there, but we know that it will be mild into early next week then a big front will bring rain to much of the state followed by cold air for the latter half of next week and beyond. Hopefully some snow for many worked in there somewhere.
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Our front is into the Panhandle now, though the temperature change is very gradual with 50s still even as far north as Kansas. Expect a few showers with the front, more the further SE you are. For N and E TX expect the front tomorrow morning (before daybreak likely in N TX) so temps will likely be steady near 50 with cloudy skies and gusty north winds along with light drizzle possible in the afternoon. If forcing is stronger than expected maybe someone will see a sleet pellet or two. Saturday morning will feature a frost for many and a possible freeze if skies clear. The weekend looks nice although a bit chilly. Sunday morning could bring a freeze to NE TX. Halloween looks to be chilly and wet.
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We are still on track for an Arctic intrusion on Friday with temps steady in the 50s, would not be a shock if temps were even cooler though. Saturady looks like 50s for highs and Sunday morning will likely be the coldest with a decent chance at a frost for many, if we get good radiational cooling maybe a freeze in spots.
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I like what I am seeing in regards to a possible Arctic (October version at least) outbreak next weekend. Looks like the typhoon remnants will pump up the GoA ridge which could bring many their first frost, maybe snow down to I-40. Still have to watch to make sure the West Coast ridge stays off of the Cali coast or we risk the cold sliding east.
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My family's place (around 9k feet near on Highway 518) sees snow fall most years from mid to late Oct through mid May with snow on the ground consistently most years from TDay through mid April. February through mid March are peak with snow depths generally >3 feet and sometimes much deeper. Above 10,500 feet snow holds on though mid June usually. I have learned to quit trying to hike until July up high.
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I was hoping to make it up this fall but it never worked out. My grandparents were up at our place around that time and they reported days around 45 with lots of rain, very unusual for October. I expected that the peaks were being dumped on. I expect the NE quarter of NM to be pretty interesting this winter from developing Panhandle lows forming on the typical strong La Nina fronts. Not sure the rest of NM will see much as the eastern Pacific is very cool so not many SW cutoffs. i bet we will see the return of some significant dust storms this winter after things dry out from a wet fall.
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It has been a pretty dry summer except for a could very wet periods around here. My grass is starting to die so I am having to break down and water it. It is good to see snow in the forecast for the NM peaks this weekend. They should get a few inches before it all melts off with the western ridging next week.
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Canton is in the middle of some very rough weather right now possible tornadoes to the NW and SE. This is First Monday weekend so there are a bunch of additional people in town likely. Still not much here but we have all evening to go and the storms are not far off along with watching new developments.
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There is a winter storm watch for NE NM where they are expecting 6"+ of snow and a foot is possible in the mountains the snow will pour over into the Panhandles Saturday night. Around here on Sunday highs will struggle to reach 60 especially if clouds hold on like they did last Saturday. Along with the chill will be heavy rain on Saturday for North and East Texas.