aggiegeog

This event is a 1 to localize 3 inch snow event along I20. All we need is a general .1" of liquid or even less with temps in the teens and no significant warm nose this far north. And i am betting the late week system comes in much colder aloft and at the surface those details with begin to be seen by Monday at the earliest.

Different models have their strong suits. This event is a larger scale event so the globals seem to have it under control. I am hoping the NAM will begin helping to nail down the sweet spots latwr today and esp tomorrow. Also very interested in what the RGEM shows starting tomorrow it seems to do well with larger scale events at short range.

DFW likely gets the front close to midday with rain going to snow during the early afternoon and lasting through the evening though amounts look to be light. I am thinking a dusting to localized couple inches with the most on the east side of DFW. For the Tyler area I expect the front early afternoon with rain changing to sleet/freezing rain by late afternoon and to snow by evening lasting into Tuesday morning maybe. Areas between I-20 and I -30 in E TX could see 1-3". In Deep E TX I think the front comes through during the evening Monday with rain going to freezing rain and sleet by late evening and changing to snow by Tuesday morning, down here snow will likely be less than an inch but icing could be an issue. For northern SE TX and the Brazos Valley I would give a similar forecast. I do think there is potential that models are currently underestimating moisture return so amounts are more likely to increase than decrease over eastern TX. I am not a good source for Central Texas, but you could likely extrapolate my above forecasts to include areas of Central Texas. In short, yes I do think that the front will arrive earlier and a tad colder than forecast. Also moisture could end up deeper than modeled.

And this could be a nice fluffy snow so a .25" liquid could mean 4-6" of snow across the northern half of the state.

Next week looks very cold with multiple systems to watch.

It sure has been an odd winter. It seems like the endless +PNA is finally breaking down so a more typical pattern should emerge at some point.

Precip is firing again to my west as expected and temp is 37 and falling. This could be something here, not much but something. That WRF-ARW2 model has done great all day.

We are in ensemble range. The op runs will vary wildly run to run for the next 4 or so days as the Pacific mess gets sorted out.

The E TX activity being more intense than expected may be stealing moisture from this band. I am hoping that NE TX being closer to the surface low results in the band restrengthening east of DFW this evening. Areas south of Tyler got over an inch of rain this afternoon with the storms just ahead of the front. Temps dropping though the 50s and about to reach the 40s here.

Watch out over NE TX, roads could get rough tonight from snow and sleet.

DFW is right in the target area for this potential event. The warmth will have to at least wait until the 20th and likely later if it ever comes. This event looks to undercut the ridge which was supposed to bring warmth.

After today's snow all eyes turn to next week. The upper air pattern is a mess, but parsing through the mess I see a southern TX overrunning event early in the week and maybe a real snow event for northern portions of the state late in the week.

Our snow band is developing currently just east of Abilene to WF line. Moderate to heavy snow will briefly fall as this band passes over E and NE TX today into tonight.

Snow reported in Abilene and raining all morning in the Permian Basin. My thoughts have not changed though the snow may be more widespread than previously thought per trends this morning.

There is more precip in W TX than was modeled so that is a good sign.

Most likely today will be flurries to a dusting though past history of this type setup overproducing cannot be fully discounted even with a lack of model support. A very tricky forecast for the Decatur area especially today.

I wonder if someone out between Denton and Gainesville gets gets close to half a foot from a convective band tomorrow afternoon. General totals for North Texas look to be a dusting to an inch. Wish it could make it to E TX but not looking likely.

NM mountains finally seeing a decent snow and most of NM and NW TX could see a bit of rain/snow from this system. The SW could finally cash in if the models are correct about the second half of the month having a -PNA.

Watch out for an extended period of light overrunning precip into Arctic air at the surface over eastern Texas for the middle of next week. Or if the Canadian is to be believed we are on track for a big snowstorm. Difference being that the Canadian digs the 500mb trough SW while other models show it being progressive. The Canadian has been pretty solid this season though somewhat aggressive while the Euro has been all over the place and the GFS has been decent but inconsistent also.

Maybe just maybe NE TX can eek out a few flurries Thursday night on the backside of the surface low crossing LA. If nothing else hopefully the good rain shifts towards west towards E TX.

Friday morning has sneaky potential for wintery precip for E TX. Surface low over LA, closed upper low overhead and cold temps at the surface in January cannot be dismissed. We will be within NAM range for this tomorrow so that should show us if this is just Canadian model fantasy or if it is real.

The NM look to be on track for their first 6"+ snowfall of the season, finally, mainly falling on Wed.

Snuck in 19 here this morning to make 4 straight mornings in the teens.

We have ended our streak of below freezing temps at 68 hours at my house. The remainder of this week will feature lows still below freezing but highs in the 40s. We warm to near average for the weekend and early next week with chances for some rain. Then another cold shot for the middle of next week. Late next week looks to feature a big Southern Plains storm so we will watch where that sets up to see if we will be on the strong thunderstorm side or the wintery side or more likely some of both for northern Texas. After that we should warm to a bit above average generally for the latter half of Jan and early Feb though we should be wet during that time as the Pacific jet goes zonal. I expect we will see a return of the -EPO by mid Feb along with a + to -PNA. This would again bring cold air to the Southern Plains with a storm track from TX to the OH Valley. Mid Feb is is typically peak of the northern TX winter storm season.

18 yesterday morning, 32 yesterday afternoon, 19 this morning. We are looking at upper 20s for highs if clouds hold or just above freezing if clouds break, some furries possible.