aggiegeog

Freezing drizzle through tonight for the NW half of N TX, may try to push into Tarrant Co. Tomorrow morning we will have to watch for another round of freezing drizzle, mainly south of I-20, if temps drop below freezing tonight in those areas. This weekend and beyond look active but models are a jumbled mess right now.

Icing likely tomorrow for the NW half of N TX and it is possible for all of N TX. E TX is looking at a chilly but stormy evening and night tomorrow with showers all day tomorrow. A pretty solid upper air pattern for winter weather is setting up for the weekend so attention turns to that after tomorrow. Looks like we are in for a chilly and wet Feb around hereso winter mischief is def on the table this month.

Mid-month is looking very interesting with possible SSW resulting in a split PV and with SOI values crashing we could see the return of precip. I am not convinced of any solution right now, though I seriously doubt we see a torch of any kind. I am thinking we will see warmer lows and cooler highs vs what we saw in Jan as well as at least near average precip with potential for above average precip.

Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.

The potential is there for a very cold February for almost all of NAm. Only thing lacking is a -NAO to generate a storm though they matters more for East of Texas. For us to get snow out of this We will want to see periods of neural PNA allowing for SW US troughs.

Stormy as in unsettled with a trough extending into the SW US. Canada will be very cold so severe for the Southern Plains appears unlikely.

As expected the weather looks to turn very cold and possibly stormy as we enter February. A big Pacific ridge extending into Siberia along with a mean trough over the West which slowly slides east.

Two tonado warnings between DFW and East Texas right now.

Two tonado warnings east of DFW right now. One over Lake Tawakoni and one just east of Corsicana.

The 12Z NAM 3km maxed out at 28" of snow on Sunday for the mountain above my family's place in southern Taos County NM. They have not had even half that this season as a whole.

6 was my low, some around here got to 4.

9 here at 3am. Spots around are as low as 7. Doubt anyone goes below 0 but even still looks like the coldest night around here in 29 years.

On track for some mid single digits around here and maybe below 0 along the Red River.

Now to see if the I20 corridor can go below 10 tonight and the I30 corridor below 0. The last time either of those happened in E TX was 1989.

My street is now clear, but seeing reports that mossy roads around here are ice covered. I sure the difference here is I did not get any freezing rain and barely any sleet. Also very little traffic to compact the snow so the sub filtering through the clouds wad enough to warm the blacktop here.

Roads are snow covered in Hideaway and about an inch so far of powdery snow. We are about a third of the way through this event here. Temp down to 23 and steadily falling. Never seen show like this except in the mountains.

26 and pretty much all snow in Hideaway. Dusting now and accumulating good now.

Moderate sleet in Hideaway. Temp is 30 with mid 20s moving in. All going according to expectations. Still expecting 2+" of snow here. 700mb front did its job to light up the radar.

We will see how theradar looks overt the next couple hours and the amount of snow showing up near the Red River will tell the take off what we can expect overnight.

It seems that at least the latter portion of the period that the HRRR has ice could be sleet of even snow per the soundings which show just a slight warm nose. This could bump totals up some even if it is overdoing moisture by a bit. HRRR gives me around 0.5" liquid with subfreezing temps. Gives Dallas Co 0.1-0.2" liquid when subfreezing.

I sure am hoping that the cold deepens quickly cutting down on the ice and sleet and upping the snow. Deep E TX and northern Central Texas could get a good amount of sleet though. Up along I 20 in E TX we could see 3-5" totals if the cold deepens fast enough maybe more in spots. The trends are sure looking good right now.

A big thing in our favor up along I20 is that the models last night initialized the surface high too strong which caused things to dry out too quickly up this way. The hi res models are more accurate with their initialization and they show percip starting along the Read River vs along I20. This leads to a longer duration precip event. Up here most precip will be frozen but we will have to see when the transition happens from sleet to snow.

Still looks like it will be a rare event where E TX is the bullseye.

Travel is looking rough for much of the state for the majority of this week. Starting tomorrow evening north of I-20 and down to I-10 by late Tuesday. Along the I-20 corridor expect mainly snow with general amounts of 1-3". For Central and Deep E TX into northern SE TX this is more of a sleet event with some freezing rain, in this area we are looking at around .5" of sleet and freezing rain accumulations. Along I-10 looking at a mix, likely primarily a elevated surface issue with maybe some sleet accumulating on grass.