aggiegeog
-
Posts
1,235 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by aggiegeog
-
Early January still appears to be the next target for winter weather in this region.
-
Looks like today featured sub freezing highs for a large chunk of the state. Highest here was right around 30 with wind child in the 10s for much of the day. Can we reach the mid teens tonight with lighter winds and less clouds? This morning was 21 here.
-
70s here in East Texas this morning. Front looks like it is through WF and Ardmore. It's gonna be a cold afternoon in North Texas and it would be will into E TX by evening. Watch out for very cold wind chills in the morning tomorrow, single digits and teens with below zero wind chills in NW Texas.
-
Dang close call
-
Looks like we go from seasonal this week to mild to start the weekend before the bottom falls out late Saturday. Snow possible early Sunday and ice possible next week.
-
Upper levels setting up beautifully for a cold and snowy patter leading up to Christmas. Details will be fine tuned but this is what we have been dreaming of for months based on analogs. Maybe this will be a warmer but snowier 1983. Still 37 here with snow on radar all day though nothing has reached the ground.
-
Models seem to have handled temps and precip very well. Band of light snow stretches from the Permian Basin to East Texas though the eastern half of that is having trouble reaching the ground.
-
Terrell also reports snow, radar shows a band moving east south of I-20.
-
The RAP and GFS soundings are pretty interesting with below freezing except right at the surface though they show ~70-75% RH throughout the column. The NAM is a couple degrees warmer, but with ~85-90% RH throughout. I would love a combo of those scenarios.
-
The NAM is so close to a good event, knock temps down even 1 degree throughout the column and we have snow everywhere near I-20.
-
For some reason I really enjoy watching these type little events evolve on the models. It is a nice borderline system for wintery precip which is always a very tricky forecast. Hopefully some of y'all catch a couple flakes though most will likely be freezing drizzle though if the moisture is as deep as the models show ten maybe some flakes can make it to the ground.
-
The operational is flip flopping between all kinds of solutions in the long range, but the ensemble still look cold. Our cold this month will not come from a big upper level trough so unless we have major ridging we will get cold as the -WPO looks to continue and western Canada stays very cold.
-
Most likely between there and west.
-
Sure is looking like the 83 analogs that we have been hesitant to believe are proving true. I still doubt we are quite that cold but a slightly modified version sure looks possible. As for current weather the wintery precip potential looks as good as ever according to current models. We won't know how much precip will lag behind in the cold air until it is happening though. We are now getting into the range of the Hi-Res models so we should get a better handle on it as we go through the day.
-
These are always tricky, but I have had a feeling that this was not going to be a classic blue norther for a while now though, maybe this will be one of my lucky ones. The trend is good.
-
I was about to post that NWS offices are picking up on the wintery precip chances. Looks like the best chances are along I-20 generally with highest chance out west, but some chance in southern N TX and maybe a bit into E TX.
-
We are still following 1983 eerily closely. The absolute coldest air of that outbreak are unlikely, but an extended period of true Arctic air entrenching itself east of the Rockies seems likely later this month.
-
Models are looking very interesting for snow tomorrow night. The mid levels are trending moister. If you assume the surface cools faster than models then that should further increase snow chances. It looks more like flurries than anything but still better than last winter.
-
Things seem to be coming in line with my original thinking of a system sneaking in behind the front. We will have to see if the mid level moisture can fill in as that is what was lacking when I looked at the models this morning. If we do get some frozen precip then Thursday afternoon and Friday morning would likely be colder than forecasted.
-
Man this month is setting up to be brutally cold. I would not be surprised to see us reach the single digits for the first time in 20 years and maybe challenge 83 and 89 if a good -EPO sets up.
-
Rain has been good here so far. It's been a couple hours since I last checked, but we were messing 1.5" then.
-
As long as we have -PNA I am hopeful that the cold will come straight south though the -NAO is a bit too negative for my liking. It may turn out that the front early next week will be even stronger down here with cold air in place already and more snow to work with down the Plains plus a more +NAO.
-
It sure is going to be a wet and chilly weekend, already up around 0.5" here and 47 degrees. That map is looks reasonable though there is some chance of more. We only look to get a one day break on Tuesday before more rain and much colder weather crashes through on Wed. Temps likely won't reach 45 for days afterwards with some days struggling to reach freezing. Moisture behind the front looks meager but models always struggle to see the little systems that can bring us snow behind these.
-
The GFS is worthless right now as far as the midweek storm is concerned. With a -PNA and +NAO there is no reason for the storm to take the track it shows.
-
Yep, this kind of cold is very dense and it just flows south even with minimal upper air support. This system will also extend the snow pack into the Central and maybe Southern Plains. Also, plenty of cold air will remain in western Canada for subsequent fronts to tap into. There appears to be a chain of fronts through at least mid month and likely into January.