aggiegeog

Already hearing some totals nearing 2 feet across northern NM. Wondering if there will be any 3 feet totals from this event, I expect there will be.

GFS keeps teasing a northern TX winter event next week. I am not buying it outside of the Panhandle at this point though. Arctic dry air usually cuts off precip faster in reality than models depict.

The main excitement for this winter will be how low can we get the temps. Its a great set up for a few short lived but severe cold shots. Can we get into the single digits with sub 0 for western N TX? It will likely be dry though. Hopefully we can get a couple NW flow high ratio surprises though. Beautiful weather after today though. Maybe some showers with each front then highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s post fronts. i do like seeing the rapid succession of the fronts, if that continues into winter maybe we wont see the big warmups between fronts. This is a winter where we could see some 90s in Feb though.

This morning was the coolest of the fall so far. Reached the mid 40s.

It is amazing how the NAM handles these so much better than anything else. The CMC sometimes gets it right but that may just be that it is cold biased overall around here. I think the best blend is use a Euro/GFS blend for upper air and once within 3 days follow the NAM for surface temps.

Strong storms in the Tyler area with heavy Rain and the airport report 47 mph gust.

Max I see on that map is 15"

Looks like the northern NM peaks will see 8-16" of snow, with 3-6" at 9,000 ft and 0-2" for northern lower elevation towns. For areas east of I35 in TX we are clinging to hope from the NAM and CMC for the front to push at least partially into E TX. Behind the front highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 60s.

It will be interesting to see if the upper low hangs back enough that the front haha up. If so the cool down will be marginal east of I35. If the upper low does hang up then the NM snow could be impressive as it will prolong the duration of snowfall and allow ground temps to cool for more accumulations to occur. Above 7500' some accumulations are likely either way, but a slower upper low will allow for up to a foot above 9000'. There is a good chance for the first freeze and first snow in Texas during the first half of Sept since records began.

I have had over 7" and radar estimates up to 12" north of Chandler which is just to my SW. This even continues today, but I think the heavy stuff is about over with. Now on to next week's cold front and if it will be Plains (GFS) or SW (Euro) based. The Euro has us briefly cooling down next Wed before 80s return by Thu and it has a cold Panhandle and back into NM where they could get heavy snow. The GFS has snow for the Panhandle and NM Tue into Wed with the front blasting through TX on Wed. The GFS has the chilly weather sticking around into the weekend. A GFS solution would threaten record low maxes and record low mins.

It made it down to 37 here this morning

Spent the morning cleaning up the Bradford Pears in my grandparent's yard. Took out a few big 30ft ones. Man I hate those trees haha.

That storm last night was intense. Took down some big trees and either snapped or knocked over tons of trees at my Dads nursery. Sipapu got around 8" of fresh snow.

Looks like OK especially western OK could see some decent snow next week.

That storm will bring cold with moisture wish it was a month or two ago.

Saturday was at or near record levels for cold highs, today is near record warm highs and northern Texas could see snow next week. March was boring but man April is not just hope no severe weather in between.

It is silly to do anything but pattern watch right now. Surface reflections are useless right now.

I need to check my rain gauge and see what additional rain I got. The drive into the Arlington Convention Center for NTNGA's Trade Show yesterday morning was interesting in the heavy rain. Also model teasing another Texas winter storm for the middle of next week. I have not looked at details on that yet.

I have gotten around 4" of rain from this event. As expected snow chances are increasing for next week.

Congrats to those in Central Texas and West Texas.

The transition line to snow is staying just to my west. Looks like a no go here, just a bit of sleet.

Looks like the I-35 corridor of C TX is getting at least a dusting tonight. It is inching toward me in NW Smith Co.

It still looks good for light snow tonight from Central TX through East TX. Moisture is shallow but it is there along with an impulse to wring the moisture out. I expect a dusting to an isolated inch for most as temps will be mostly in the 33-35 range and precip rates will be light.

Blizzard warning for mountains of West Texas where they could see a foot of snow with wind chills below 0.

Basically along and behind the 700mb front is where the heavy snow will be. Between the 700 and 850mb front is going to be mainly sleet. East of the 850mb front will be rain or freezing rain.