WxWatcher007

I knew I'd get a weenie for that post

With the caveat that recon would be an even better indicator, the eye of Henri looks pretty good as it begins to cross into the Gulf Stream. It looks circular with convection (albeit weak) wrapping around it. You can also see fast low level motion that may be indicative of a tighter and stronger wind field. Of course, we don't know if winds are mixing down or if the pressure is dropping, but it looks good. If crossing the GS can pop some hot towers and evacuate some of the residual dry air, it could quickly improve in presentation and organization in the few hours before reaching cooler waters.

Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights

Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission.

Super early advisory out from the NHC.

The weenie in me would take option 1 all day. Far more impactful to have the flood and the wind, though I won't have power for a week lol. Thanks. I'm still think landfall between New Haven and Westerly. Last night I said Old Saybrook for the precise location. For inland I'd probably put peak gusts between 45-55 mph.

As we wait for recon, I think it'll be important to see how much tighter the wind field has become and how strong the inner core is. Remember that in prior recon runs the strongest FL winds were well to the SE of the center. Really need those winds being close to the center.

We kid, but in all seriousness, Henri is actually about to cross into the Gulf Stream and from there will have a little runway before temperatures drop off sharply. If it's actually going to do anything interesting, it's now or never. Especially with an apparent cyan ring.

Recon is finally descending into the open wave, I mean Henri. Henri? Are we back to Henri yet or is this still Mehenri level?

Nailed it. We are the Jets of tropical wx.

I'm kind of like Josh at this point where I can't get enough of it. When I measured 56kts down on Long Island for Isaias I was pretty stoked, then I got into the eyewall of Laura a few weeks later. There's really nothing like it, and yes I know I'm insane lol.

You're killing me Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at.

To quote @mappy, I cackled.

I loathe each and every one of you My thoughts haven't really changed much after the midday guidance for CT. Maybe I'd go a bit lower on inland winds, but I never thought we needed higher end gusts to create a high impact event because of a combination of heavy rainfall (my main concern), already saturated soils, and the duration of wind gusts. With the center likely to pass over CT I think it's going to be windy everywhere, but obviously worse at the shore and closer to the center before full on decay. Heavy rain, coastal flooding/surge, and enough wind to cause widespread power outages.

I may quit tracking wx altogether after what I've been subjected to How some of you come back year after year to talk about snow chances is beyond my comprehension

More prayers please as I may need to self reap soon. I never realized that this is what y'all inflicted upon one other for months on end during "winter".

Still a fair amount of spread on the 12z GEFS

Some decent 925mb winds there.

Honest to God I don't know how I do it either.

It was the best track model from 36-72 overall last season per NHC verification. @CoastalWx I'm a little west of you on LF. Still thinking New Haven to Westerly but closer to the right side of that zone.

Thanks, I appreciate that. I actually have to hop off for a bit so if you don't see long recon posts it's not because I decided the storm was not impressive enough.

Too true

Latest VDM for those that care lol Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:36ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:00:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.84N 72.20WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (117°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,043m (9,984ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open from the north to the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix at 12:55:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 17° at 22kts (From the NNE at 25.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 12:55:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 13:18:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 215° at 82kts (From the SW at 94.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 13:20:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) which was observed 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... 10-m wind dropsonde wind unavailable.

Wasn't he out there yesterday? It looked really rough during those missions. I'm not sure what you were expecting, but borderline cat 1 was the prediction for right now and that's exactly what this looks like. I can't speak for others but I'm actually taking time to present the data and while not very impressive it is squarely in the middle of the forecasted intensity for this time and environment. This. Two things can be true at the same time. It's still fighting off some hostility and has a lot of work to do but it's much better organized than it was yesterday. I'm really not sure what people were expecting at 9:30am on Saturday.