WxWatcher007

Glad everyone is ok

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area within 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Lexington Park... Piney Point... Tall Timbers... Saint Marys City... Saint Marys River... Saint Inigoes Creek... Saint George Island... Saint Inigoes... Park Hall... Drayden... Dameron...

Predecessor Rain Event In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1031 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Saint Inigoes Creek, moving northwest at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Saint George Island around 1035 PM EDT. Saint Marys River and Saint Marys City around 1040 PM EDT. Lexington Park, Piney Point and Tall Timbers around 1045 PM EDT. White Point Beach around 1055 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Point Lookout, Dameron, Great Mills, Redgate, Valley Lee, Drayden, Scotland, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall and Callaway.

Tornado warning south of VA Beach.

Don’t mind me I’m just throwing buns in the water for the weenies. Do tweets not show up on the site anymore?

Maximum sustained winds up to 50 at 5pm

or it could be like most Hollywood movies and have a horribly boring and annoying end?

Tropical

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21

Totally agree with the idea that the setup is favorable out there.

Would love to get a Cape cane chase in someday. Big wind blizzard would be good too but those are tough to come by it seems

Elsa is produced TS conditions along the coast in every state so far, so I don't see a reason why it wouldn't in the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall is always tricky with these when you're on the edge of a tropical system, but the coastal sections should cash in. HWRF is the best case scenario for those inland that want rain.

DON'T ENCOURAGE HIM

Don't disagree with any of that. Been a while since we've gotten a cane up here. An active peak gives us the best odds and I think the peak will be active again this year. If Elsa hits right we could see some flooding issues in CT due to the wet period we've seen, but other than that I'm not expecting anything particularly noteworthy here.

Ray is big dog or bust. You know this lol. Tropical quiets down after this but there's a robust signal for a big peak starting in August IMO. Steering pattern TBD.

Not sure how it’ll verify in this region but it did an excellent job for the most part further south. Remember the euro and ensembles tried shredding it in the western Atlantic and was totally wrong. Euro did pick up on the strengthening off Florida first but was too aggressive there too.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Great to see so much early activity in the thread Looks like a modest quick hitter. I’ve spent most of the day bisecting Elsa in FL and GA. Crazy driving and strong winds in the bands inland.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Wild ride out of Florida. Currently in Lake City with measured winds near TS force.

I’d expect TS watches to go up for other coastal areas north of VA Beach sometime today. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ANZ632>634-638-652-654-656-658-071745- /O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.A.1005.210707T0944Z-000000T0000Z/ Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Currituck Sound- Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light VA out 20 nm-Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia- North Carolina border out to 20 nm- Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out 20 nm- 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... * WHAT...For the Atlantic waters and the Currituck Sound, south to southeast winds winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming southwest. For the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, south to southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the James River, 2 to 3 feet in the Currituck Sound, 3 to 6 feet in the lower Bay, and 6 to 9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean. * WHERE...The Atlantic coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Beach Light NC, the Chesapeake Bay from New Pt Comfort to Cape Henry, the James River from the James River Bridge to the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, the Currituck Sound. * WHEN...Thursday through Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

Clearwater Beach reported a gust to 56mph about 30 minutes ago.