WxWatcher007

5.07” estimated here in my area.

That was impressive. Waterfalls coming from the apartment buildings over here.

Off to bed. Here's the 00z EPS. Second image might be a better visualization.

All the guidance weakens this on final approach and most do it pretty dramatically. I think it’d be a surprise if we saw anything higher than a low end cat 1 at this latitude given the current setup. You know this but if we wanted high end wind from a purely tropical entity up here it’d need to be hauling through the region. We don’t have that setup here, so it almost doesn’t matter how strong this gets down south. It’ll decay quickly on final approach. Looks like it might be from what I see around hour 42. That and perhaps a little more shear from interaction with the trough. Not sure it’ll play out like that because if it developed a core like the run projects it should be more resilient in the face of that, but that combination would take any higher end intensification off the table IMO.

Moving this slowly up here, sure. But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why.

Even though the 00z Euro was closer to the other guidance, it was another odd run structurally. It deepens Henri over the next 24 hours to ~986mb when the environment should be hostile, but then attempts to do what it’s been doing the entire time and weaken the system significantly on Friday and early Saturday when it’s likely to be in a more favorable environment. The stronger low early allows for the general westward shift, and it essentially loops over SE MA as it decays on Monday. Recon will really be helpful here and I’m glad the missions are starting later today. For reasons discussed earlier the Euro is practically flying blind right now.

It’s meh verbatim but it took the Euro days to even recognize that a coherent low could survive the journey north. It’s a step toward the GFS and other guidance IMO. I’d expect the EPS to be more robust.

Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far.

Very good discussion of the possibilities by the NHC tonight.

Oh this is definitely more hostile, but 15-18kts of shear is nothing to sneeze at for a small developing system. *cough* Grace *cough* I may or may not have disdain for that TC

Me too. I'm not sure I buy the crawler solutions, but I definitely have some flooding concerns should this track closer to our neck of the woods, especially in eastern CT. It's running south of the kill zone, but yeah, the next 24 hours or so will be critical in determining the ceiling for Henri. If it can maintain some semblance of a core when it gets to the other side of the ridge and a more favorable environment, it bodes well for significant intensification. It's actually a bit impressive to me that it has held strong so far given the shear it has faced.

18z EPS was the most west run yet. Can't get a zoomed in version to see the members but some strong members are in there too.

Totally agree. Don’t get caught up in run to run shifts this far out. I think the lack of development early on by the GFS caused the east shift here. You can see how it’s lopsided for a bit before organizing and intensifying. The track seems very sensitive to intensity, which is going to be very difficult to predict even at short range.

Me either. Depending on heading and track though that trade off could be high impact for coastal sections and inland flooding. Wouldn’t take high end wind to cause a lot of problems, especially in my state lol.

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18Location: 29.9°N 67.6°WMoving: W at 9 mphMin pressure: 995 mbMax sustained: 70 mph

Just shy of hurricane status at 5pm

EPS has additional members landfall over SE NE on Sunday afternoon.

It’s a nice visible presentation currently, even in the face of that shear. To really take off it needs to get the eyewall aligned and wrapping upshear to close off fully. Looks like it still might be moving just south of due west.

The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment.

Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach. This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen.

It’s not where it needs to be, but the euro has initialized much better than prior runs. I personally don’t look at the SLP at initialization, but rather the level of organization at low levels.

Ukie is a strong hit over SE New England.

The GFS has been competitive, if not better than the Euro at various elements of tropical prediction, including track forecasting. Every system is different but the GFS is legit for tropical.