Yeah I think we’re far from a lock, but whenever I see a setup like this in the middle of summer it’s worth taking note. The moisture feed looks impressive.
Still think that’s a little too out there in terms of accuracy. The environment is marginally better, if that, but the background state is still pretty hostile.
Environment doesn’t look conducive. AI is probably latching too much on climo and a marginally more favorable environment. Emphasis on marginally.
I was just coming to post about it. Euro has been consistent with the setup. This we watch.
99.99% fantasy. AI is not yet competent imo in marginal environment tropical cyclone genesis. The regular ensembles barely have a signal if you can even call it that.