TauntonBlizzard2013

Not even close for us

Congrats to the mid Atlantic

Seems like that energy is going to get left behind on the 0z gfs. i wouldn’t hold my breath for anything big on this run. Cant string any positive runs or trends together. One step forward, two steps back

Which is why it’s unlikely this one happens.

Gross, going to be hard to correct that at a short lead

Good time for the can kicking meme

People aren’t going to like this run, not surprising

I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10%

Is this actually true though? Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

This run isn’t going to do it. here we go. Bad start to 12z. Era of what can go wrong, will.

Kind of disagree on that. With the few big solutions we’ve seen, it’s looked good down that way, maybe even better than up here because of the better structure and dynamics

The airmass isn’t great, but it’s not putrid. Id take anything at this point. I’ll roll the dice with precip type issues to get a decent event

This is a week out and we are talking about a small window for this to phase to bring an appreciable event to this area. I think it’s asking a lot to have any sort of confidence in that type of accuracy before like Thursday. I think the odds on favorite is a missed phase at this point. A lot needs to go right, and there is a reason the ensembles are mediocre and we’ve only seen a few OP hits. Canadian also wants nothing to do with this, so it seems like people are completing tossing guidance that doesn’t have a storm

This is still a full week away. It’s best to have very low expectations until probably Thursday or Friday. 6z euro is a nice dose of reality

The reality is, we’ve had very few runs of any model that produce a good event

I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow.

Figures it’ll be cold and bare ground for weeks on end and as soon as the storm shows we get precip type issues. Whatever, gotta roll the dice at some point here or we are headed towards another rat regardless

I think the problem is that nobody makes a peep when we get the cold and snow cheerleading posts. If people were just being honest, there are a lot of people here who only want to hear the positives of winter weather.

There is absolutely nothing of note for the next few weeks, who cares where people vent frustration. do we need to keep this thread pristine for people to discuss 28 vs 30 degrees?

He called me unreadable last week, just returning the favor.

Straight up forecasting on hopes and prayers. Hate to see it. Unreadable if you will

Still light years away from being anything more than flurries for SNe though. need another 300 miles, at 100 hours

Virga north of NYC on that look

Appreciable precip is in South Jersey on the gfs and cmc. Anything north of that is light stuff or nothing. this needs a miracle, just like every other threat in the past 3 years

Probably a decent idea to check out for a few weeks and come back when the pattern relaxed a bit, just hope it’s not cutters