Constantly talking about how good things look 10 days away is just as bad as persistence forecasting, if not worse.
Were going to need a threat to actually get inside of like 3-4 days, otherwise, we are just on the same hamster wheel we’ve been on since November.
like I said, the 12z gfs is literally a carbon copy of most model runs of the last 3+ months. No bonafide cold storm looks have made it inside a week. We see a few decent runs, and then make a hard turn to dung around a week or so out, and that’s where it stays.
Maybe it’ll be different this time, but the 12z gfs run is very familiar looking.
Im skeptical we are seeing enough of a shuffle to really change things up.